Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Michigan State owns six straight wins in its series with Indiana, going 5-1 against the spread over that span. Coming off their miracle victory at Michigan last week, the Spartans look to stay unbeaten when they host the Hoosiers Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.

Point spread: Spartans opened as 17-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (see line updates and matchup report here).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.1-24.2 Spartans

Why the Indiana Hoosiers can cover the spread

IU started this season 4-0, and while it has lost its last three games, two of those could have gone either way. Earlier this month the Hoosiers lost at home to top-ranked Ohio State 34-27, driving into the Buckeyes red zone in the final moments before succumbing. And last week Indiana led Rutgers 52-27, only to allow the Knights to score the final 28 points of the game to lose 55-52.

The Hoosiers compiled 627 yards of offense last week, as quarterback Nate Sudfeld returned after missing the previous game with an ankle injury to hit on 32 of 42 throws for 464 yards and four touchdowns. And three Indiana receivers caught 100 yards' worth of balls. The Hoosiers just couldn't close the deal.

Two weeks ago IU lost at Penn State 29-7, but the senior Sudfeld missed that game; just prior to that, though, the Hoosiers took the Buckeyes to the limit and easily covered as 21-point home dogs. With Sudfeld, Indiana has a puncher's chance.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

It took one of the craziest endings in recent college football memory, but MSU remained undefeated last week, scoring the winning touchdown on a fumble return as time ran out to beat Michigan at the Big House 27-23.

The Spartans trailed by nine points early in the fourth quarter and pulled to within two points on a short LJ Scott touchdown dive with nine minutes to go, but they looked dead when they gave the ball over on downs with just less than two minutes left. But the defense held, and there was just enough time on the clock for the Wolverines to botch a punt snap, creating a hero out of Michigan State backup safety Jalen Watts-Jackson.

The Spartans outgained Michigan 386-230 and limited the Wolverines to just 62 yards rushing on 33 carries. MSU has now outgained each of its first three Big Ten foes by at least 105 yards.

Smart pick

College football can be a fickle betting proposition, where the unexpected is almost the rule. Indiana is coming off a tough loss, while Michigan State is coming off an emotional victory over its hated rival. But that just might mean the tables are set to be turned. Also, the home team might be favored by a bit too much in this spot. The smart choice here is with the Hoosiers, plus the points.

Betting trends

Michigan State is 12-0 straight up in its last 12 games in October.

Michigan State is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games.

Indiana is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games on the road in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.