Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. LSU Tigers Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Western Kentucky is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven battles with Power 5 conference teams, while LSU is just 5-7 ATS in its last dozen meetings with non-Power outfits. The Tigers step out of SEC play to host the Hilltoppers Saturday night down at Death Valley.

Point spread: The Tigers opened as 17-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.2-24.2 Tigers

Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers can cover the spread

Western Kentucky opened this season with a victory over one SEC team (Vanderbilt) and now gets a shot at another—of the big-game variety. The Hilltoppers come in riding a four-game winning streak, which includes three covers, after beating North Texas last Thursday 55-28. WKU, as a 34-point favorite, had the spread covered when it bumped its lead to 55-14 early in the fourth quarter, but it allowed the Mean Green to score two touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score slightly more respectable.

The Hilltoppers racked up 683 yards of offense last week, 283 on the ground; they're now averaging 536 yards and 44 points per game.

Western Kentucky may not pull off the upset here, but led by senior quarterback Brandon Doughty, who's already thrown 24 touchdown passes this season, it could keep this one interesting.

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

LSU continued to stake its claim as the best and possibly the most entertaining team in the country last week with a 35-28 victory over Florida, squeaking out a cover as a six-point home favorite. The Tigers led the Gators at the half 28-14, allowed Florida to tie the score at 28-28, then took the lead for good when kicker Trent Domingue scampered in from 16 yards out on a fake field goal early in the fourth quarter.

LSU outgained Florida 423-326 and outrushed the Gators 221-55, as running back Leonard Fournette came up with 180 more yards and two more scores. The Tigers also got a second straight solid performance from quarterback Brandon Harris, who has thrown for 430 yards and four touchdowns, without a pick, over his last two games.

Smart pick

LSU is likely to win this contest, but a blowout might not necessarily be in the cards. The Tigers have been known to call off the dogs against lesser foes during the Les Miles era, and Western Kentucky can move the ball. The smart choice in this spot probably resides with the Hilltoppers, plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in LSU's last five games.

LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in October.

Western Kentucky is 11-1 straight up in its last 12 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.