Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Just three seasons ago, Baltimore and San Francisco met in the Super Bowl. How quickly the mighty have fallen. The Ravens are just 1-4 this season and 0-7-1 against the spread over their last eight games, while the 49ers are also 1-4 this year and 2-8 ATS over their last 10 contests. Two teams in desperate search of a victory meet when Baltimore visits San Francisco Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Ravens opened as two-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.7-20.8 Ravens

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore may be just 1-4 this season, but those four losses have come by a total of 17 points. On opening weekend, the Ravens lost a tough game to the undefeated Denver Broncos; then they got upset out in Oakland on a Raiders touchdown with 30 seconds to go; then they lost a crazy game against Cincinnati on a Bengals score with two minutes left; and last week, they fell in overtime to the Cleveland Browns 33-30. Basically, Baltimore is only two or three plays from being 3-2 or even 4-1.

The Ravens outrushed the Browns last week 181-83, and on the season they are outrushing foes by a 118-110 margin. And usually that's conducive to winning games and covering spreads in the NFL. So far this season, teams that have outrushed their opponents are 42-21 straight up and 41-20 ATS.

Baltimore is struggling, but there's still time; in the top-heavy AFC, the Ravens are only two games out of the wild-card race.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The Niners, in the midst of their post-Jim Harbaugh period, are also struggling but are coming off one of their better efforts of the season, a 30-27 loss at MetLife Stadium to the New York Giants Sunday night. San Francisco rallied from an early 10-point deficit to take a late lead on a short Carlos Hyde touchdown run, but it allowed New York to drive 82 yards for the game-winning score with 30 seconds left.

On the night, the 49ers outrushed the Giants 124-84, which, as mentioned above, is a good way to cover a spread. And in fact the Niners did, as seven-point underdogs on the road.

Two weeks ago, the San Francisco defense held the high-powered Green Bay Packers to just 17 points. If the defense can come up with another effort like that, and the offense can pick up where it left off Sunday night, the Niners could win this one outright.

Smart pick

Both of these teams are banged up, so bettors might be wise to check late injury reports before getting down. Ultimately, the team most likely to win the ground game and make the fewest mistakes should win and cover in this spot, and that team is most likely to be Baltimore.

Betting trends

The Ravens are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in October.

The total has gone under in eight of the 49ers' last nine games at home.

The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.