Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tennessee Titans are just 1-13 over their last 14 games and 4-15 against the spread over their last 19 contests. Near the same end of the misery spectrum, the Miami Dolphins are 2-6 over their last eight games, just 1-8 ATS over their last nine. So it's a matchup of two bad recent bets when the Titans and Dolphins meet in Nashville Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Titans opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report here.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.8-20.4 Titans

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami became the first team this season to fire its head coach when it dumped Joe Philbin following a loss to the Jets two weeks ago. The Dolphins then had the benefit of a bye week for the adjustment. Perhaps the change will do some good.

Miami is just 1-3 both SU and ATS this season, following that 27-14 loss in London two weeks ago, and there wasn't much good to take from that performance. The story was the same three weeks ago when the Dolphins lost at home to Buffalo 41-14. But before this season started, Miami looked like a team that could contend for a playoff spot, and it's still relatively healthy.

The Dolphins have winnable games the next two weeks against Tennessee and Houston; if they could just find a spark under interim head coach Dan Campbell, get the running game going and game-up on defense, they could find themselves back at .500.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS, but its last two losses have come by a total of three points. Three weeks ago, the Titans rallied from a two-score deficit against Indianapolis to take a two-score lead, but they lost 35-33 when they couldn't make good on a two-point conversion attempt with just less than a minute to go. Then, following the bye, Tennessee fell at home last week to Buffalo 14-13, again blowing a double-digit lead.

The Titans outgained the Bills 276-209 and won the time-of-possession battle by a 36-24 margin, but they missed chances at a larger early lead when four first-half excursions into Buffalo territory resulted in a single field goal.

Tennessee has actually outgained all four opponents this season and ranks third in the league in time of possession, holding the ball for more than 34 minutes per game. So far this NFL betting season, teams that have won the time-of-possession battle are 41-22 SU and 43-18 ATS.

Smart pick

Miami is a team in disarray at the moment; at least Tennessee has some sense of direction. Backing the Dolphins anytime in the near future seems like a dangerous proposition to one's wallet. The smart pick here is the Titans, the home team at the short spread.

Betting trends

The Titans are 1-13 SU in their last 14 games.

The Titans are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home.

The Dolphins are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.