San Diego Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers are not only off to a 5-0 straight-up start to this season, they're also 5-0 against the spread. The San Diego Chargers, on the other hand, are 2-3 SU and have lost four in a row ATS. The Packers look to stay perfect when they welcome the Chargers to Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Packers opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.7-16.3 Packers

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego, as it's been wont to do over recent seasons, is again playing close games this season; so far, four of its five games have been decided by five points or less. Monday night, the Chargers led Pittsburgh late but gave up a short touchdown run on a gutsy call by the Steelers on the final play of the game to lose 24-20.

San Diego racked up 406 yards of offense, as quarterback Philip Rivers threw for more than 350 yards for the third time already this season, and it won time of possession by a 34-26 margin. But a poorly run pass route resulted in a Pittsburgh pick-six in the third quarter, and that was basically the difference in the game.

Two weeks ago, the Chargers beat Cleveland 30-27 on a field goal at the buzzer; four weeks ago, they gave the Bengals a tough game in Cincy, losing 24-19. And back in Week 1, they rallied from 18 points down to defeat Detroit 33-28. If it can get the running game going, perhaps with former Wisconsin Badger Melvin Gordon, and make a few stops on defense, San Diego could make this a close game, too.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay stands as one of the last unbeatens in the league after stopping St. Louis last week 24-10. The Packers did not put on one of their better performances as of late, scoring just two offensive touchdowns and giving up 191 yards on the ground, but they also picked off Rams quarterback Nick Foles four times while allowing just one St. Louis touchdown. They managed to cover as nine-point Lambeau Field favorites.

On the season, Green Bay ranks 10th in the league in total offense and seventh in total defense, and it's plus-five in turnover differential. On the whole, the Packers rank as one of the best and most balanced teams in the league.

Smart pick

Green Bay gave up a ton of yardage on the ground last week and committed three turnovers; neither of those things will happen this week. Meanwhile, San Diego is on the road, playing on the short week after a tough loss Monday night. As long as the Chargers continue to struggle running the football, they should be faded. The smart pick here is the Packers.

Betting trends

The Packers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Chargers.

The Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on the road in October.

The Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.