New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

New England quarterback Tom Brady will take his 2015 revenge tour to Indianapolis as the Patriots visit the Colts in the Week 6 Sunday night game.

The teams last met in the AFC Championship Game back in January, with New England winning 45-7 and beating the spread as a seven-point home favorite. That was also the first of five covers in the past six games for the Pats, including their Super Bowl victory.

Point spread: Patriots opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 55 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report). 

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.3-22.1 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Brady knows he would never have been suspended for four games from the Deflategate scandal in the first place if it wasn’t for Indy's complaints about the air pressure in the balls during the AFC title game. While the suspension was eventually dropped, he still won’t forget that the Colts were complaining and will take his frustrations out on them like he has on every opponent so far this season.

New England also owns them in Indianapolis, going 17-2-1 against the spread in the past 20 games there. Last year during the regular season, it was unheralded rookie Jonas Gray who stomped over the Colts en route to a career-high 201 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-20 road victory. That game was also played in prime time.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis has been able to get some extra rest following the team’s 27-20 road win over the Houston Texans in last week’s Thursday night matchup. That added time off should have allowed starting quarterback Andrew Luck to get healthy, paving the way for his return to action after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury.

While the Colts started at 0-2 for the second straight season, they have rebounded nicely with three consecutive wins and play in such a weak division that they should have no problem winning it for the third year in a row. Still, they have circled this game on their schedule and will be motivated to get some revenge of their own.

Smart pick

Will Indy or Brady play with more fire Sunday night? That’s the only question you need to ask yourself before picking a side in this game. Brady has thrived in situations like this during his entire career, so it’s impossible to go against him in this spot. He is simply too good for the Colts and will show Luck yet again how a future Hall of Famer is supposed to perform in big games. Bet on the Pats to win by double digits.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 17-2-1 ATS in their last 20 games on the road against the Colts.

The Colts are 9-0 SU and ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.

The Patriots are 14-6 SU and ATS in their last 20 games on the road in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.