Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds, Football Pick

Florida State owns a 17-game home winning streak but is only 1-6 against the spread over its last seven home dates. The undefeated Seminoles look to stay that way when they host Louisville for an ACC Coastal Division bout Saturday afternoon at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.3-19.8 Seminoles

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

Louisville began this season by losing its first three games to Auburn, Houston and Clemson, three teams that are a combined 13-2 this season, by a total of 13 points.

The Cardinals have since won their last two games, including a 20-13 decision at North Carolina State last week as three-point underdogs. Louisville outrushed the Wolfpack 203-45 and won time of possession by a 33-27 margin, and those are good ways to win games and cover spreads on the road.

While the Cardinals are 2-3 straight up this season, they are also 4-1 against the spread.

Louisville lost the matchup with Florida State last year 42-31, but that final score doesn't quite tell the story; the Cardinals led almost the entire game before giving up two scores in the last four minutes, letting the Seminoles off the hook.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU is 6-0 after outlasting Miami last week 29-24. The Seminoles led 20-10 at the half and fell down by a point with 10 minutes to go, their first deficit of the season. However, they promptly responded by driving 84 yards for what turned out to be the game-winning score. If Florida State had made good on the ensuing two-point conversion attempt, it would have covered as a six-point favorite.

On the night, the 'Noles outrushed the Hurricanes 248-20, as running back Dalvin Cook, who missed most of FSU's previous game with a sore hamstring, returned and racked up 222 yards on the ground, 72 on a first-quarter scoring jaunt. Meanwhile, quarterback Everett Golson connected on 25 of 33 passes for 291 yards, and he still hasn't thrown an interception yet this season.

The Seminoles aren't exactly blowing opponents away, winning their first three ACC games by an average of nine points per game. But if they win by nine Saturday, they'll cover.

Smart pick

Both of these teams have played some close games this season, FSU winning them and Louisville, for the most part, losing them. And last year's meeting wasn't decided until the final few minutes. Also, teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 this season are 94-13 SU against unranked opponents but just 47-59 ATS (44 percent). So the smart choice here is the Cardinals, plus the points.

Betting trends

Louisville is 6-0 ATS in its last six games on the road.

Florida State is 30-0 SU in its last 30 regular-season games.

Florida State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.