Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

LSU is 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in its last five meetings with Florida, but the Gators are making some big noise this season under new head coach Jim McElwain, especially on defense. However, that defense might have its hands full with Heisman Trophy-candidate running back Leonard Fournette when the teams hook up down in Death Valley on Saturday night.

Point spread: Tigers opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.4-17.2 Tigers

Why the Gators can cover the spread

Florida is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this year after winning at Missouri last week, 21-3, covering as a six-point road favorite. The Gators grabbed an early 14-3 lead and stifled the Tigers from there, allowing just 257 yards of Mizzou offense (only 106 on the ground), while giving up just one first down out of 14 third-down situations.

However, the Gators found out on Monday that freshman quarterback Will Grier has been suspended for the season after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. Sophomore Treon Harris takes over at quarterback for Florida this week.

Two weeks ago, Florida upset the heck out of Ole Miss; three weeks ago, it rallied to tip Tennessee; and four weeks ago, it won at an improved Kentucky. So the Gators, who were expected to go through a rebuilding process with the new coaching regime, lead the SEC East at 4-0.

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

LSU leads the SEC West at 3-0 following its 45-24 victory at South Carolina last week. The Tigers outgained the Gamecocks 624-283, set a new school record with 396 yards rushing, held South Carolina to just 74 yards on the ground and held the ball for almost 40 minutes, all of which led to a cover as 20-point favorites.

Fournette ran for 158 yards last week (87 on one long scoring jaunt) but wasn't even LSU's leading rusher, as freshman Derrius Guice went off for 161 on just 16 carries. And quarterback Brandon Harris put on his best performance of the season so far, hitting on 18 of 28 throws for 228 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions.

LSU is a legitimate national championship contender, and with a couple of tough road games coming up, it can't afford a loss at home.

Smart pick

Florida had been a nice story until Grier's suspension, and a good defense can go a long way toward financial success, but LSU is the better team here, playing at home against a team making a switch at quarterback. The Tigers are the smart choice in this spot.

Betting trends

LSU is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games against Florida.

Florida is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

The total has gone over in LSU's last four games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.