West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Baylor and West Virginia have played some crazy games since the Mountaineers joined the Big 12 three seasons ago, including a pair of over results that averaged 123 total points. Maybe that's why the highest total on this week's college football betting board is Saturday's Big 12 battle between West Virginia and the Bears in Waco, Texas.

Point spread: The Bears opened as 18-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.2-25.7 Bears

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

After starting this season 3-0, the Mountaineers have lost their last two games, including a 33-26 overtime decision at home to Oklahoma State last week. However, they had a chance in both contests. West Virginia spotted the Cowboys the first 14 points of the game last week, including a sloppy fumble returned for an OSU touchdown, but rallied to tie the game at 26-26 on a Skyler Howard touchdown run with three minutes to go in the game. The Mountaineers just couldn't quite complete the comeback.

After a slow start, West Virginia ended up outgaining and outrushing Oklahoma State, but four turnovers proved costly.

Two weeks ago the Mountaineers lost at Oklahoma 44-24, but that was a three-point game with one minute to go in the third quarter. Over those last two games West Virginia has committed nine turnovers and has allowed two defensive touchdowns. If the Mountaineers could just clean up the mistakes, they could keep this one close.

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor is off to a 5-0 start to this season, 3-1 against the spread, after crushing Kansas last week 66-7. Off as 46-point favorites, the Bears covered the spread early in the third quarter and held on from there while resting many regulars for most of the second half.

Two weeks ago Baylor topped Texas Tech 63-35, covering 17 points; three weeks ago the Bears routed Rice 70-17, covering 33 points. At the moment Baylor looks like a money-making machine.

Last year the only thing that kept the Bears from making the national championship playoff was a 41-27 upset loss at West Virginia. Revenge, anyone?

Smart pick

Baylor is once again putting up some goofy numbers on the scoreboards and stat sheets, but it hasn't exactly played anyone of note yet. And with this game taking place at McLane Stadium, the spread is probably inflated, perhaps by as many as six points, toward the home team. Meanwhile, West Virginia is battle-tested, having already played a pair of ranked teams. While the Bears may very well win this game, the smart money sides with the Mountaineers.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in 12 of West Virginia's last 14 games.

West Virginia is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games on the road in October.

Baylor is 10-1 straight up in its last 11 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.