Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines: Betting Odds, Football Pick

Michigan State long played the role of little brother in the football rivalry with Michigan, but things have changed. The Spartans have won six of the last seven meetings outright and covered the spread in the last seven in a row.

In a big early-season Big Ten battle, the Spartans and Wolverines play for the Paul Bunyan trophy on Saturday afternoon at the Big House in Ann Arbor.

Point Spread: The Wolverines opened as seven-point favorites.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Wolverines 28.9, Spartans 19.3

Why the Michigan State Spartans Can Cover the Spread

Michigan State is 6-0 after beating Rutgers 31-24 last week. The Spartans trailed early, took a 24-14 lead in the third quarter, allowed the Knights to come back and tie the score at 24-24, then won it on LJ Scott's short touchdown run with less than a minute to go.

Michigan State gained 489 yards to Rutgers' 349 and had over 34 minutes of possession. However, it couldn't cover as a 12.5-point road favorite.

So stretching back to last season, the Spartans have now won 10 games in a row.

Michigan State has become quite the road warrior under head coach Mark Dantonio, going 25-14 straight up and 27-11 against the spread over its last 38 road contests. That includes a 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS mark at Michigan Stadium.

Why the Michigan Wolverines Can Cover the Spread

Jim Harbaugh owns a proven record of rebuilding programs, but nobody expected the quick turnaround he's pulling off at his alma mater. Michigan is off to a 5-1 start (4-2 ATS) under Harbaugh after routing a ranked Northwestern team 38-0 last week, easily covering as a 10-point home favorite.

The Wolverines returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown Saturday and never let the Wildcats in the game, as the defense pitched its third straight shutout.

On the day, the Wolverines gained 380 yards to Northwestern's 168, won the ground battle handily (201 yards to 38) and held the ball for over 37 minutes.

Two weeks ago, Michigan blanked Maryland 28-0, and it blanked BYU 31-0 three weeks ago. The Wolverines have also out-gained their last five opponents by an average of almost 250 yards.

Smart Pick

Michigan State is 8-1-1 ATS its last 10 times out as an underdog, winning six of those games outright. If this game were lined before the season started, Michigan State might have been favored. Despite Michigan's great play as of late, the smart money here resides with the Spartans, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against Michigan.
• Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games.
• The total has gone under in six of Michigan's last seven games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.