Daily Fantasy Football Week 6: Predicting DraftKings DFS Studs and Duds

High-priced studs and duds are abundant on DraftKings as daily fantasy football's Week 6 gets underway. Eddie Lacy ($6,300), Matt Ryan ($6,900) and Julian Edelman ($7,600) lead the list of studs to target, while Knile Davis ($4,500), Peyton Manning ($6,600) and Keenan Allen ($7,600) should be avoided.

The Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all take their byes this week, which doesn’t noticeably detract from the high-end options available to DFS owners.

As sample sizes return more accurate results through five weeks of action, it’s time to separate anomalies from trends while building solid lineups at every position.

Defense/Special Teams

The Seattle Seahawks D/ST ($3,800) return home hoping to redeem themselves against the Carolina Panthers after blowing a 17-point, fourth-quarter lead at the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Gregg Bell of the (Tacoma) News Tribune tweeted about the surprisingly soft state of the Legion of Boom late in games:

The Seahawks are the highest-priced unit on DraftKings for Week 6, but they will be worth it based on the opening Vegas line predicting a 28-14 victory.

The Panthers bring a 26th-graded run defense to the Pacific Northwest, which plays into Seattle’s offensive strength with or without Marshawn Lynch ($6,900). Look for the Seahawks to channel the bitter taste of a 2-3 record into a stifling home performance against a Panthers offense painfully lacking weapons.

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

The Atlanta Falcons D/ST ($3,200), on the other hand, are too expensive to trust on the road against Drew Brees ($7,000) and the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night. Vegas is expecting an offensive fireworks display with the over/under at 51 points, the highest opening line in Week 6.

Tight End

Tyler Eifert ($4,900) is third among tight ends in targets (36) and receptions (24), fourth in yards (312) and first with five touchdowns. He’s $2,700 cheaper than Rob Gronkowski ($7,600), facing a Buffalo Bills unit ranked 27th in tight end points against.

His incredible game-saving catch propelled Cincinnati’s game-tying kick against Seattle:

Although Andy Dalton ($5,700) has viable passing options at every position, Eifert is second on the team in targets, earning Dalton’s attention on 23 percent of pass attempts. An early leader for Comeback Player of the Year, Eifert is tied for fourth among tight ends in red-zone targets with six.

It’s a fair bet to expect another six catches for eighty yards and a touchdown, scoring a lucrative four times more than his salary.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Jimmy Graham ($5,400) is a fair bet to continue to disappoint DFS owners and the 12th Man, ranking 10th in PPR scoring among tight ends, according to FantasyPros.com.

His salary only dropped $200 from opening weekend, which doesn’t match Graham’s significant dip in production since leaving the Saints. Avoid Graham until offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell figures out how to use him.

Wide Receiver

Edelman continues to rate among the most reliable DFS receivers from week to week. The Cowboys held Tom Brady’s ($8,100) top target to a season-low four receptions on five attempts, but Edelman still delivered slipping defenders for a 59-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach.

Minitron is averaging 11.75 targets per game, accounting for 29.5 percent of Brady’s pass attempts. An Indianapolis Colts defense that allowed Brian Hoyer ($5,100) his second-best career outing (116.6 passer rating) isn’t likely to disrupt the Brady-to-Edelman connection in Week 6.

Although Edelman’s salary has risen in recent weeks, it’s still $1,600 cheaper than a dinged-up Julio Jones ($9,200). Expect a return to double-digit targets and at least one touchdown against the Colts in Week 6.

Mike Stone/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers boast the league’s fourth-rated pass rush, while the San Diego Chargers' 23rd-ranked offensive line already rotated in nine different players in four games. This is not the foundation for success as Allen and the Bolts head to Lambeau Field coming off a Monday nighter.  

Philip Rivers ($6,300) will spend too much time on the turf and the sideline to effectively hook up with Allen this week.

Running Back

It’s likely Rivers will be a spectator for most of the Week 6 tilt between the Packers and Chargers because Green Bay will control the clock with Lacy through the ground game. San Diego’s fantasy points allowed to running backs ranks 31st heading into a Monday night showdown with Le’Veon Bell ($8,500) and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Lacy’s 2015 campaign is off to a devastatingly sluggish start for DFS owners forking over the big bucks to roster him. FantasyPros.com ranks him 29th among running backs in PPR scoring. But Lacy’s salary has shrunken accordingly, dipping $1,200 since Week 1. This makes Lacy an attractive value with so many favorable matchups at the top of the running back board:

DraftKings

This week’s dud at running back comes in the wake of Jamaal Charles’ ($7,800) suspected ACL tear, as reported by Kathleen Gier of the Kansas City Star. Davis had been Charles’ handcuff in recent seasons, but head coach Andy Reid said Davis and Charcandrick West ($4,000) will split carries against the Minnesota Vikings' 16th-ranked defense in fantasy points allowed.   

There’s no sneaky value in Kansas City’s backfield unless an obvious bell cow emerges.

Quarterback

Thursday night matchups are not typically good bets in DFS, but the projected score between the Falcons and Saints at 28.5 to 22.5 is in favor of undefeated Atlanta. Ryan is likely to reap the majority of those points through the air against the Saints’ 30th-ranked defense in quarterback points allowed.

Atlanta’s 28.5-point projected score is the highest among the posted games.

Matty Ice might be avoided given the Thursday night start and his three-turnover, zero-touchdown collapse against a struggling Washington Redskins defense on Sunday. The contrarian angle plus a $1,500 discount compared to Brady should make Ryan a solid GPP play.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Conversely, Manning looks absolutely spent, throwing two awful interceptions in a forgettable outing against Oakland's third-worst pass defense. Safety Charles Woodson tallied both picks, snagging an errant pass in the end zone, before swooping under a rainbow intended for Demaryius Thomas ($7,900):

 The Cleveland Browns' greatest weakness on defense is against the run, not the pass, meaning Manning should be avoided in what Vegas predicts to be the third-lowest-scoring affair (42.5 total points) of the week.

DraftKings

Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats, unless otherwise noted. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus, unless otherwise noted. Las Vegas odds are provided by Odds Shark. Fantasy points allowed rankings based on DraftKings scoring, unless otherwise noted.

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