Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

San Diego is 5-1 against the spread in its last six appearances on Monday night, while Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS over its last six Monday night appearances. A pair of 2-2 teams with playoff aspirations meet when the Chargers take on the Steelers Monday night out in sunny San Diego.

Point spread: Chargers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.1-18.0 Chargers

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh is 2-2 this season, but 3-0-1 ATS, after falling in overtime last Thursday to Baltimore 23-20, but it's pushing the spread as a three-point underdog. The Steelers, with Michael Vick at quarterback, led 20-7 midway through the third quarter but allowed the Ravens to rally and lost on a long Justin Tucker field goal 10 minutes into the extra period.

Pittsburgh ran the ball for 167 yards last week and won the turnover battle 2-0, and numbers like that are usually good for covers. But replacement kicker Josh Scobee missed two field goals in the last three minutes that could have helped not only ice the game, but grab the cash.

Vick has now completed 24 of 32 throws this season, as he subs for Big Ben, although his 5.1 yards per attempt leaves something to be desired.

The key for the Steelers Monday night will probably come down to the running game; if they can grind out first downs, work the clock and keep Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers off the field, they could win this game outright.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego just snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a 30-27 victory over Cleveland. The Chargers trailed 16-13 late in the third quarter, took a 27-19 lead on a pair of Rivers touchdown passes, allowed the Browns to tie the score at 27 with just over two minutes to go, then drove 52 yards to the game-winning field goal.

San Diego racked up 438 yards of offense, led once again by Rivers, who threw for 358 and three scores, without a pick. The victory came as a welcome bounce-back effort, after a 31-14 loss at Minnesota two weeks ago.

Rivers could use some help from the running game, but the Chargers go against a Pittsburgh defense that just gave up 191 yards on the ground last week to Baltimore. And more balance would really make this San Diego attack dangerous.

Smart pick

San Diego won a close one last week, while Pittsburgh lost a tough one. But in the topsy-turvy world that is the NFL, fortunes change from week to week. The smart pick here is with the underdog, plus the points.

Betting trends

The Steelers are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Chargers.

The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday night games.

The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday night games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.