Why Matt Forte Will Be a Valuable but Dangerous Trade-Deadline Commodity

The Chicago Bears are entering a time when short-term anguish will lead to long-term gains. Or at least that’s the ideal goal of any rebuilding phase, with this one taking place under a new head coach and a new general manager.

The old, decaying pieces of a franchise that’s qualified for the postseason only once since 2007 will slowly be chipped away and replaced with youthful promise. Anyone not considered a future cornerstone could be subjected to increasingly brisk trade winds as the Nov. 3 deadline draws closer.

Defensive end Jared Allen and outside linebacker Jon Bostic have already been dealt, but the fire sale still hasn’t reached full-inferno mode quite yet. If it does and the team’s most valuable commodity is shopped, what happens next could answer a few grand trade-deadline questions that extend far beyond Bears headquarters.

Does premier production outweigh the danger of repeated physical punishment over years? And how much, exactly, is too much to pay for a dynamic two-time Pro Bowl running back who’s set to turn 30 years old in December?

That running back is Matt Forte, and depending on which report you read, he’s either on the trade block right now…

...Or the Bears are listening to offers while not aggressively shopping Forte, as noted by Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com.

If a Forte bidding war develops, winning it will be appealing for any contending team in need of a quick, emergency-glass-case solution to its backfield woes. But ultimately, acquiring Forte is dangerous, with the risk far exceeding any short-term gain.

The shimmering allure will lie in a multi-purpose weapon who has excelled as a pass-catcher. In 2014, Forte’s 102 receptions established a new single-season running back record. He piled up 808 yards on those catches, and for the second-straight year finished with 1,800-plus yards from scrimmage.

And now Forte has joined another exclusive club only four games into a new season.

He leads the league in yards from scrimmage at this season’s quarter pole with 500, averaging 125 yards each game. Forte also ranks second in rushing with 367 yards on the ground, but all his production has come at a significant physical cost.

Climbing numbers in every statistical category that matters for running backs accompanied by high abuse has been a theme throughout Forte’s career. This season he’s already logged 84 carries, and 97 touches overall. That carry total easily tops the league, with the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson a distant second at 75 rushing attempts.

He’s set a pace for 388 touches in 2015. Even if Forte deviates slightly from that punishing path, his accumulated mileage still has the potential to leave him in the same condition as your dad’s rusted station wagon he’s clinging to despite pleas from loved ones.

Forte averaged 322.9 touches per year over his seven NFL seasons prior to 2015. His 2,357 total career touches give him a safe lead in that category since 2008, when he entered the league.

Running back	Touches
Matt Forte	2,357
Chris Johnson	2,266
Adrian Peterson	2.090
Steven Jackson	2,042
Marshawn Lynch	2,021

Of course, Forte sits atop another rather important list during the same time span.

It’s the one that pretty much asks this question: Which running backs have been the best at, well, doing their jobs since 2008?

Running back	Yards from scrimmage
Matt Forte	11,931
Chris Johnson	11,135
Adrian Peterson	10,760
Frank Gore	9,772
Jamaal Charles	9,579

Let’s play dress-up, then, only a more grown-up version without cowboys, a fireman or a sexy pizza rat.

You’re the general manager of a team off to a start in 2015 we can either describe as “great” or “fine.” Anything between those two extremes leaves your squad of bulked-up bruisers still solidly in the playoff conversation, for whatever that’s worth in early October. A few more wins before the trade deadline will advance that cause. But by then you’ll need to either take action on Forte, or vacate the pot.

You’ll heavily consider the two tables above. Especially if you happen to be looking down on the Dallas Cowboys from an executive suite. They lost running back DeMarco Murray to free agency in the offseason, and then in Week 4 their depth at the position took another hit when Lance Dunbar suffered a torn ACL. The Denver Broncos could be another Forte landing spot, as they're a division-leading team getting little from C.J. Anderson, who's averaging 2.7 yards per carry.

You’ll look at everything, and then decide on a Forte narrative path in this choose-your-own-adventure tale. Do you believe Forte can remain a unique, multi-dimensional weapon as a short-term rental? Or conversely, is the running back cliff looming later this season as he chugs toward elderly status?

That’s the struggle here, and trying to shrug off cliff-diving concerns becomes an exercise in selective number reading. Hits absorbed by pass-catching running backs may not be as intense. But I suggest turning away now if you're trying to convince yourself Forte has more career longevity because of his effectiveness as a receiver.

Running back	Attempts
Chris Johnson	1,965
Matt Forte	1,901
Adrian Peterson	1,891
Frank Gore	1,797
Marshawn Lynch	1,791

Doubting Forte’s talent isn’t wise, and that’s not my intention here. Instead I doubt how much the talent contained within his aging body is worth on the trade market. The Bears are reportedly seeking a second-day draft pick (second or third round), according to La Canfora.

Looking back over only the past two drafts prior to 2015 reveals a pile of running back gold in those rounds.

Running back	Round	Year	Production to date
Jeremy Hill	2nd (55th overall)	2014	1,504 yards on 300 touches
Carlos Hyde	2nd (57th)	2014	727 yards on 165 touches
Tre Mason	3rd (75th)	2014	973 yards on 216 touches
Giovani Bernard	2nd (37th)	2013	2,610 yards on 503 touches
Le'Veon Bell	2nd (48th)	2013	3,756 yards on 717 touches
Eddie Lacy	2nd (61st)	2013	3,289 yards on 663 touches

There’s an Offensive Rookie of the Year on that list (the Packers’ Eddie Lacy), and two Pro Bowlers (Lacy and the Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell).

Sure, there are plenty of running back duds scattered throughout Day 2 of the draft, just like every position. The Titans’ Bishop Sankey (54th overall in 2014) is still mostly a plodding mess, and Montee Ball (58th overall in 2013) has already been released and is searching for meaningful employment.

However, any team that trades for Forte would inherit what's left of the $7.1 million he’s owed this season, per Spotrac, which comes with a $9.2 million cap hit. It costs far less for a general manager to maintain the status quo, be patient and use his own second- or third-round pick to address a core need. Bell, for example, is earning $687,882 during the third of his rookie contract in 2015.

As one of the league's highest-producing running backs, Forte deserves every penny he pockets right now. But as Bill Simmons quipped, mashing panic buttons to acquire him while shipping off future assets is another matter entirely.

Forte isn’t in the Bears’ long-term plans, and it’s been clear for quite some time he’s not getting a contract extension. He knows it, and at this point everything else is just white noise, including the hovering trade speculation.

“I don’t worry about those things,” he said on The Dan Patrick Show (via ProFootballTalk).

“A lot of it is media speculation, just like in the offseason they were like ‘the Bears could trade Matt.’ Everybody was talking about me getting traded then and it didn’t happen. Now after one guy gets traded, it all comes back again. I can’t control that either. They can trade me if they want to. I don’t think I’m going anywhere, but I can only control how I play on the football field and that’s what I do.”

Forte finishing 2015 on any roster other than the one fielded by the Bears will require a delicate dance with opportunity cost. If his trade price doesn’t fall dramatically, a willing buyer has to justify pushing aside the future for one run at glory.

The NFL historically greets the trade deadline with only a yawn. Now any Forte trade partner could be forced to adopt a baseball mentality, choosing to live or die by the time-honored “flags fly forever” mantra. To sacrifice the future, he would have to be the final championship piece in the present.

That is why Forte is probably right. He won’t get traded.