Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills will try to bounce back from their first loss since the season opener when they visit the Tennessee Titans Sunday. The Bills are 6-2 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games as road favorites, while the Titans have dropped four of their past five SU and ATS following a bye.

Point spread: Bills opened as three-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.(Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.4-22.8 Bills

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo is the more talented team and still has one of the top defenses in the NFL despite last week’s 24-10 home loss to the New York Giants as 6.5-point favorites. The Bills will need to lean more on that defense, though, and limit their penalties, which did them in against the Giants. They will be facing a rookie quarterback in Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota who is coming off a bye and looked good in two of his three starts. But this is the best defense Mariota will be playing against so far in his young pro career.

New head coach Rex Ryan will make sure his players do not commit the same mistakes on the road that they did at home in losing to New York. This is still a team that crushed the Miami Dolphins on the road 41-14 two weeks ago as one-point road underdogs, and also upset the Indianapolis Colts 27-14 as one-point home chalk in the season opener.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans are a young team that nearly had the Colts beat before their bye, and they will learn from the experience and use it to their advantage in this spot. They still covered the spread as three-point underdogs against Indy and will be playing their second consecutive home game after opening the season with two straight on the road.

While Mariota is just a rookie, he only has one less start than Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor, who looked shaky for most of the game against the Giants last week. Taylor’s inexperience is still an issue and will continue to be a factor as the season wears on. Unlike Mariota, who was selected with the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, Taylor was not drafted high and has a lot more flaws that Tennessee can expose.

Smart pick

If the Bills were healthier and had more experience in the offensive backfield, they would be the play here. But they do not, as running backs LeSean McCoy (hamstring) and Karlos Williams (concussion) are dealing with injuries. Plus, Taylor is not nearly as good as he looked in the first three games. The Titans will take advantage of the extra time they had to prepare for this game and win it straight up as a home dog.

Betting trends

The Bills are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.

The Titans are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games after the bye.

The Titans are 1-12 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.