Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Odds, Pick

West Virginia lost its first meeting with new conference rival Oklahoma State after joining the Big 12 three seasons ago, but it has beaten the Cowboys twice in a row since then, winning as a home dog and as road chalk. The Mountaineers will go off as home chalk when they host OSU Saturday afternoon for Homecoming in Morgantown.

Point spread: The Mountaineers opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.5-22.2 Cowboys

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread

Oklahoma State is 5-0, and 2-0 in Big 12 play, after nipping Kansas State last week 36-34 on a field goal with 30 seconds left. The Cowboys trailed almost all day long, finally took a lead with six minutes left, gave it up, but then drove 45 yards in the last two minutes, picking up a key 4th-and-8 conversion along the way, for the game-winning kick.

OSU outgained the Wildcats 490-351, as quarterback Mason Rudolph threw for 437 and three scores, while the Cowboys defense held the K-State running attack to 144 yards on 42 carries.

Two weeks ago, Oklahoma State opened conference play with a 30-27 victory at Texas, outgaining the Longhorns by more than 100 yards.

The Cowboys are 4-2 against the spread the last six times they've been dogged by a touchdown or more, and that run includes upsets of Oklahoma and Baylor and a near miss against Florida State. So bettors shouldn't underestimate OSU's ability to surprise.

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

After a 3-0 start to this season, West Virginia just suffered its first defeat, a 44-24 decision at Oklahoma. But that score might be a bit misleading. The Mountaineers rallied from a 17-point deficit to trail by only a field goal late in the third quarter, before the Sooners scored on a 71-yard pass play and a 41-yard fumble return to pull away.

West Virginia outrushed Oklahoma 196-107 and held the ball for over 33 minutes but couldn't overcome five turnovers. Few teams can.

The Mountaineers won their first three games this season by a combined score of 130-23, covering spreads as favorites of 16 and 17 points. If West Virginia can eliminate the turnovers and avoid giving up the big plays on defense, it stands a good chance of earning a third straight victory over Oklahoma State Saturday.

Smart pick

The Mountaineers might be ripe for a bounce-back effort this week, but they're also just 7-13 ATS as home favorites in four-plus seasons under head coach Dana Holgorsen. And these two teams are very even, talent-wise. The smart choice here is with the Cowboys, plus the points.

Betting trends

Oklahoma State is 10-1 straight up and 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road in October.

The total has gone under in eight of West Virginia's last nine conference games.

West Virginia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.