Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers Betting Odds, Analysis, Pick

The recent series between Georgia Tech and Clemson hasn't been too difficult to pick; the home team is 9-1 straight up, 8-2 against the spread over the last 10 meetings. That fact would seem to bode well for the Tigers and their backers heading into Saturday's bout with the Yellow Jackets at Death Valley.

Point spread: Tigers opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.9-21.9 Tigers

Why the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets can cover the spread

The Ramblin' Wreck started 2-0 this season, racking up 134 points in victories over Alcorn State and Tulane, but have since lost three games in a row, albeit to some decent outfits. Last week, the Yellow Jackets led North Carolina 21-0, scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions. Then they had their All-ACC defensive tackle ejected in the first half, coughed up that early advantage and eventually fell 38-31.

Georgia Tech, as it does, ran the ball 58 times for 256 yards last week and won time of possession by a lopsided 39-21 margin. But a fourth-quarter fumble turned into a key Tar Heels touchdown, which proved to be the difference in the game.

The Yellow Jackets are struggling at the moment, but they've still out-gained four of five opponents this season, and out-rushed them all. They're 0-2 in ACC play, but they won the Coastal Division last year with two losses, so they're not dead yet.

Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread

Clemson is off to a 4-0 start to this season, following a 24-22 victory last week at home over Notre Dame. The Tigers built a 21-3 lead through three quarters, then held on from there, preserving the win with a stop on an Irish two-point-conversion attempt with seven seconds to go. Clemson out-rushed Notre Dame 199-116 and won the turnover battle 4-1, although it couldn't quite hang on for the cover as a three-point home favorite.

The Tigers are already 1-0 in conference play, having won at Louisville three weeks ago 20-17.

Clemson has out-gained and out-rushed three of four opponents this season; it's also about two plays away from being 4-0 ATS. The Tigers think they can contend in the ACC Atlantic Division, but they know they'll have to sweep their home games to do so.

Smart pick

Georgia Tech is coming off a depressing defeat, while Clemson is coming off an emotional victory over a big-time opponent. But college football can be a roller coaster of a game from week to week; might the Wreck be ripe for a rebound, the Tigers prime for a letdown? And this spread is probably inflated toward the home team. The smart pick here is with the Yellow Jackets, bucking the recent trend in this series.

Betting trends

Georgia Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference games.

Clemson is 7-0 SU in its last seven games.

Clemson is 0-6 ATS in its last six conference games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.