Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds, Analysis, Pick

Alabama owns the recent rivalry with Arkansas, winning the last eight meetings straight up, covering five of the last seven. Coming off a huge SEC road victory, the Crimson Tide continue their quest for a return trip to the College Football Playoff when they host Arkansas for Homecoming in Tuscaloosa Saturday night.

Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 16-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.3-20.3 Crimson Tide

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks can cover the spread

The Hogs, who began this season with high hopes, just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 24-20 victory at Tennessee, winning outright as six-point road dogs. Arkansas spotted the Vols an early 14-0 lead and looked headed for a fourth straight defeat, but steadied itself, rallied to take the lead in the third quarter and held on from there.

The Razorbacks outgained Tennessee 507-365, outrushed the Vols 288-133 and won time of possession by a 35-25 margin. Also, the Arkansas defense allowed just one Tennessee offensive touchdown. Two weeks ago the Hogs opened SEC play by losing to Texas A&M in overtime despite outrushing the Aggies 232-65. In fact, Arkansas has outgained and outrushed every opponent this season.

The Razorbacks have experienced some turmoil early this season, but perhaps last week's victory will smooth things out.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide showed they weren't about to give up on their SEC and national championship hopes by going into hostile territory in Athens last week and walloping Georgia 38-10. Playing as underdogs for the first time in seven seasons, Alabama snapped a 3-3 tie by scoring the next 35 points of the game, sparked by a blocked punt returned for a score.

On the day the Tide were outgained by the Bulldogs 379-299, and 83 of UGA's yards came on one play with the outcome already decided.

So each of Alabama's four victories this season have come by at least 18 points. If the Tide win by 18 this week, they'll cover.

Smart pick

Alabama looked like a national title contender last week, while Arkansas has struggled. But the Tide only beat the Hogs last season by a point, 14-13, and basically got outplayed. Bama isn't above the normal ups and downs college teams go through, and playing at home means the spread is probably inflated by several points. The smart money here takes Arkansas.

Betting trends

Alabama is 8-0 SU in its last eight games against Arkansas.

The total has gone under in nine of Arkansas' last 10 games.

Arkansas is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.