Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Including the playoffs, the Seattle Seahawks are on an epic run on their home field, winning 27 of their last 29 home games straight up and going 21-8 against the often large spreads. Seattle will go off as a big favorite again when it hosts the winless Detroit Lions Monday night at the Clink.

Point spread: Seahawks opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.1-15.6 Seahawks

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit is 0-3 both SU and ATS so far this season, but it has had some chances. In the season opener, the Lions led at San Diego 21-3 but lost 33-28; in Week 2, they only trailed at Minnesota by one score well into the third quarter, before fading; and last week, they lost at home to Denver 24-12 but only trailed by two points through three quarters.

Unfortunately for Detroit, the key play of the game last week went the other way, when just before halftime Peyton Manning basically threw a ball up for grabs, where Demaryius Thomas went up and got it for a 45-yard, back-breaking touchdown connection.

The Lions defense held the Broncos to just 41 rushing yards, and Detroit won time of possession by a 31-29 margin. It just couldn't overcome a few big plays. If the Lions can keep quarterback Matt Stafford upright, help him out with a running game and limit the mistakes, they could stay in this one.

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

After dropping their first two games of this season on the road at St. Louis (in overtime) and at Green Bay, the two-time defending NFC champs picked up their first victory of this season last week, blanking the Bears 26-0, covering as 16-point favorites.

Seattle out-rushed Chicago 159-98, held the Bears to just 48 yards passing (in Kam Chancellor's first game back), allowed just seven first downs and forced 10 punts. Also, while the Seahawks lost Marshawn Lynch early in the game to a hamstring injury, rookie backup Thomas Rawls gained 104 yards on 16 carries.

Seattle opened this season with that crazy overtime loss against the Rams, then fell in a grudge match against the Packers. But home is where the Seahawks really make their hay.

Smart pick

Seattle just covered a double-digit spread last week by pitching a shutout, and Detroit isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse. The Seahawks could score 17 points and still have an excellent chance of covering the spread. The smart choice here is Seattle.

Betting trends

The Lions are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road in October.

The Lions are 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games on the road.

The Seahawks are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 MNF games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.