Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals are off to their second 3-0 start in a row and get a chance to make it 4-0 at home Sunday against Kansas City. And the Bengals love that home cooking, going 14-2-1 straight up, 13-3-1 against the spread over the last two-plus seasons at Paul Brown Stadium.

Point spread: Bengals opened as three-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.2-18.4 Bengals

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is 1-2 both SU and ATS this season, after falling at Green Bay Monday night 38-28. But that's liable to happen to just about anybody. KC fell down 31-7 in the third quarter, rallied to within two scores with 10 minutes to go, but ran out of time. Of the few bright spots, quarterback Alex Smith may have found a new favorite target in Jeremy Maclin, who caught eight balls for 141 yards and a touchdown, the first scoring reception by a Chiefs wide receiver in their last 19 games.

Two weeks ago, Kansas City lost a game it should have won, at home to Denver on a flukey play in the final seconds. The Chiefs opened this season with an upset of the Texans in Houston.

Kansas City is still a playoff contender, and a capable road team; in two-plus seasons under head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 10-7 SU, 12-5 ATS away from Arrowhead Stadium.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincinnati is 3-0 both SU and ATS after outlasting the Ravens in Baltimore last week 28-24. The Bengals pounced out to a 14-0 lead, fell down 17-14, re-took the lead on an 80-yard Andy Dalton-to-AJ Green catch-and-run, gave up the lead, then re-took it for good on another Dalton-to-Green hookup with just over two minutes to go. The Cincy defense then made one last stand, securing the Bengals' fourth-straight win in the series with Baltimore.

On the day, Cincinnati outgained and out-rushed the Ravens, winning outright as a three-point road dog.

The Bengals opened this season with a 33-13 win at Oakland, covering three points on the road, then defeated San Diego 24-19, covering three points at home.

Cincinnati is averaging 129 yards per game on the ground this season while allowing just 77 rushing yards per game. So far this NFL season, teams that have out-rushed their opponents are 31-17 SU and 31-16-1 ATS.

Smart pick

Many handicapping factors point toward the Bengals in this game, but the NFL is a strange place where teams regularly bounce up and down from week to week. Cincinnati is coming off a big road rivalry victory, while Kansas City just got beat up in Green Bay and plays on the short week. That's why in the crazy, mixed-up world that is NFL betting, the Chiefs are the smart choice, plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of the Chiefs' last nine games against the Bengals.

The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in October.

The Bengals are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the AFC West.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.