New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New York Jets will try to bounce back from their first loss of the year as small favorites in London against the Miami Dolphins in an early-season AFC East matchup. The Jets have lost 12 of their past 16 divisional games, but the Dolphins have struggled to cover lately in going 1-7 against the spread in their last eight overall.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.6-19.6 Dolphins

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York looked like it was suffering from a Monday night hangover and reading the headlines following a big road win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2. The Jets simply ran into a desperate Philadelphia Eagles team last Sunday that was hungry for their first victory and played like it.

New head coach Todd Bowles has already instilled a winning attitude in his players, so do not read too much into their 4-12 record in AFC East games because that was Rex Ryan’s regime. Bowles likely gave his team a motivational pep talk following its first loss to make sure the focus is there for this key matchup oversees, especially with a bye week on deck. New York is 4-1 straight-up and ATS in its past five before a bye.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami looked terrible in a 41-14 home loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, especially quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who completed 26 of 49 passes for 297 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Tannehill had not thrown a pick in either of the team’s first two games though and will carefully study the tape of Philadelphia’s win over the Jets to find out how to attack New York’s tough defense.

The Dolphins are a much better team than they have shown the past two games in losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Bills, and the Jets still have a lot to prove offensively. This game could be a lot like their season-opening win against the Washington Redskins, where Miami’s defense again makes a serious statement.

Smart pick

The Dolphins are losing a home game to play in London, so they need to treat it like one and bounce back from an embarrassing setback to Buffalo. They cannot afford to fall to 0-2 in the division if they hope to make the playoffs while New York is still forming its identity under Bowles. The Jets are still an unpredictable team and do not to deserve to be favored in this spot. Watch for Miami to pull off the upset as a “home” dog.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in seven of the Jets’ last nine games against the Dolphins.

The Jets are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games before the bye.

The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.