Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Odds, Football Pick

Texas A&M is 2-1 against Mississippi State since joining the Big 12 three seasons ago, but the Bulldogs won last year's meeting and have covered the spread in the last two matchups. In a game that could separate contender from pretender in the SEC West, the Aggies host the Bulldogs Saturday night in College Station.

Point spread: Aggies opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.6-23.5 Aggies

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

The 'Dogs are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread on the season after last week's 17-9 win at Auburn. Mississippi State led 14-0 at halftime on a pair of Dak Prescott touchdown passes, and the Bulldogs defense limited the Tigers to three field goals on the day. MSU was outgained 389-326 but came up with key stops, including a pick deep in the red zone, to secure the victory.

Prescott has now completed 67 percent of his throws this season with seven touchdown passes against zero interceptions, while the Mississippi State defense has held foes to less than 15 points per game.

Three weeks ago, against their toughest foe so far, the Bulldogs rallied to within a two-point conversion of LSU at 21-19, missed it, but covered as a three-point home dog. Prescott and the MSU stop unit have a chance to keep this week's game close, too.

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

The Aggies are 4-0 this season, and 3-1 ATS, after outlasting Arkansas in overtime last week in Arlington 28-21. A&M tied the game on a touchdown and two-point conversion with three minutes to go, then won it on a defensive stop after quarterback Kyle Allen's second touchdown pass of the game to Christian Kirk in the first extra period.

Aggies backers actually got lucky last week when A&M kicker Taylor Bertolet missed a 38-yard field on the last play of regulation. By winning via the touchdown in overtime, the Aggies covered as six-point favorites.

Texas A&M won its first three games while averaging 46 points per in the process. The Aggies might not hit that mark this week, but even 28 might be enough to cover.

Smart pick

Last year, the Aggies started 5-0 and rose to the ranks of championship contenders, then lost in Starkville 48-31. This year, A&M might have revenge in mind. And while that doesn't always work out, this might be a good spot for it. The smart money here sides with the Aggies.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in Mississippi State's last six games against the SEC.

Mississippi State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games in October.

Texas A&M is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games at home in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.