Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds, Football Pick

Michigan State owns the recent rivalry with Purdue, winning each of the last six meetings, but the Boilermakers have covered the last three meetings and are 5-2-1 against the spread over the last eight. MSU and Purdue open their Big Ten slates Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.

Point spread: The Spartans opened as 24.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.8-21.1 Spartans

Why the Purdue Boilermakers can cover the spread

The Boilers are off to a 1-3 start to this season after suffering a tough 35-28 loss at home to Bowling Green last week. Purdue tied the score at 28-28 with eight minutes to go on a David Blough-to-Gregory Phillips 62-yard touchdown connection and had a chance to take a lead on its next drive but missed a 32-yard field goal. The Boilers then allowed the Falcons to drive for the winning score in the last half-minute, aiding in their own demise with a pair of personal foul penalties.

Purdue kicker Paul Griggs also missed a 20-yard field-goal attempt in the first half. So that's at least six points they missed out on, which might have come in handy, as the Boilers missed on the cover as four-point home dogs.

On the day, Blough, a redshirt freshman making his first career start, hit on 29 of 39 throws for 340 yards and two scores against one interception.

With 15 starters back this season, the Boilermakers are hoping to make some progress in their third season under head coach Darrell Hazell.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

In their quest for a berth in the College Football Playoff, the Spartans are 4-0 after dispatching of Central Michigan last week 30-10. MSU led 17-0 before the Chippewas hit the board and put the game away with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns.

The Spartans didn't exactly shine last week and came up one score short of covering as 25-point home favorites. But they outrushed CMU 181-55 and could have covered if they hadn't committed a pair of defensive penalties on the Chippewas' only touchdown drive of the day.

Michigan State hasn't put everything together in one game yet this season; if they do this Saturday, this game could get ugly.

Smart pick

Michigan State is probably going to win this game; the only matter is the final margin. But playing at home means the spread is probably inflated against the Spartans, and that victory over Oregon three weeks ago doesn't look as good now as it did then after what Utah did to the Ducks last week. If the Boilers can put up 20 points, they'll have a good shot at the cover. The smart money here may have to hold its nose, but the play is Purdue.

Betting trends

Michigan State is 6-0 straight up in its last six games against Purdue.

Purdue is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games.

Michigan State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.