Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds, Analysis, Football Pick

Texas once dominated the rivalry with Texas Christian, winning 24 straight meetings from the 1960s into the 1990s, but since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12 they're 2-1 both straight up and against the spread in the series. TCU hosts the Longhorns for homecoming in Fort Worth Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: Horned Frogs opened as 18.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41.3-21.6 Horned Frogs

Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

UT is off to a 1-3 start to the season, its worst in 60 years, but the last two losses have come by a total of four points, including a 30-27 decision against Oklahoma State last week. The Longhorns trailed 14-3 early, rallied to take a 27-24 lead, but with less than a minute to go in a tie game their punter botched a snap, setting the Cowboys up for the game-deciding field goal.

On the day, Texas ran the ball 42 times for 171 yards while the defense held OSU to 103 yards on 46 carries. That's 2.2 yards per carry.

Two weeks ago the Longhorns rallied from 21 points down against Cal to pull within one point with a minute to go, but missed the extra point. Head coach Charlie Strong is catching flak for his team's lack of progress, but he's only in his second season. If the 'Horns could just put the brakes on the mistakes and penalties, they could begin to turn their ship around.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

After outlasting Texas Tech last week 55-52, the Frogs are 4-0 so far in their quest to earn a berth in the College Football Playoff. TCU came within a half-minute of a soul-crushing upset, but running back Aaron Green caught a tipped pass in the back of the end zone on a 4th-and-goal to save the day. The Frogs outgained the Red Raiders by 150 yards (although the defense didn't exactly impress) and won the time of possession battle by a 35-25 margin.

Since a somewhat lackluster performance against Minnesota in the season opener TCU has racked up 70, 56 and 55 points, respectively.

The Frogs are filling holes on defense at the moment, but as long as quarterback Trevone Boykin and his offensive line are healthy, they'll always have a chance to simply outscore opponents.

Smart pick

The worm has turned for these two teams, relative to one another; the Frogs are now national championship contenders while the Longhorns are rebuilding. But TCU is coming off an exhausting effort last week, its defense is depleted and playing at home means the spread is probably inflated. If Texas can stop shooting itself in the foot, it could keep this one close enough to cash.

Betting trends

Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Texas is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games on the road in October.

TCU is 8-0 SU in its last eight games against the Big 12.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.