MLB Playoff Picture 2015: Predicting Wild-Card Races and Potential Bracket

With less than two weeks remaining in the MLB regular season, the playoff picture is coming into focus as teams have few opportunities left to stake their claim to a postseason spot.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates enter Thursday's slate of games as the only two teams to clinch playoff berths thus far, but there are likely many more to come over the next few days, as some of the divisional races are reaching nearly insurmountable levels.

Some intrigue remains, particularly when it comes to the American League wild-card race, so it is entirely possible that one or more playoff spots will come down to the wire.

As the postseason inches closer, here is a rundown of the current standings, along with predictions for how the playoff races will ultimately shake out.

Current AL Playoff Standings

AL East
AL Central
AL West
AL Wild Card
Rank	Team	W	L	GB
1	Toronto Blue Jays	87	65	---
2	New York Yankees	83	68	3.5
Rank	Team	W	L	GB
1	Kansas City Royals	88	63	---
2	Minnesota Twins	78	73	10.0
Rank	Team	W	L	GB
1	Texas Rangers	82	69	---
2	Houston Astros	80	73	3.0
3	Los Angeles Angels	78	74	4.5
Rank	Team	W	L	GB
1	New York Yankees	83	68	+4.0
2	Houston Astros	80	73	---
3	Minnesota Twins	78	73	1.0
4	Los Angeles Angels	78	74	1.5
5	Baltimore Orioles	75	76	4.0
6	Cleveland Indians	74	76	4.5
7	Tampa Bay Rays	74	78	5.5
8	Seattle Mariners	74	78	5.5

Current NL Playoff Standings

NL East
NL Central
NL West
NL Wild Card
Rank	Team	W	L	GB
1	New York Mets	85	67	---
2	Washington Nationals	78	73	6.5
Rank	Team	W	L	GB
1	St. Louis Cardinals	96	56	---
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	92	60	4.0
3	Chicago Cubs	89	63	7.0
Rank	Team	W	L	GB
1	Los Angeles Dodgers	86	65	---
2	San Francisco Giants	79	72	7.0
Rank	Team	W	L	GB
1	Pittsburgh Pirates	92	60	+3.0
2	Chicago Cubs	89	63	---
3	San Francisco Giants	79	72	9.5
4	Washington Nationals	78	73	10.5

Playoff Race Predictions

AL Wild Card

The American League East and West divisional races are still in question to some degree, but it certainly seems as though the teams that fall short in those respective divisions will occupy the wild-card spots.

The New York Yankees have been playing catch-up behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the East, and after Toronto took two of three games from the Yanks, the Bronx Bombers enter Thursday 3.5 games back.

New York does have a comfortable four-game lead on the top wild-card spot and a five-game wild-card cushion overall, though, which is why Fangraphs is tabbing it as a near playoff lock, according to Max Wildstein of Scout.com:

Although the Yankees are closing in on the playoffs, the AL's second wild card is much closer. The fading Astros are up one game on the Minnesota Twins and just 1.5 games on the AL West rival Los Angeles Angels.

According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the 'Stros are in an extremely tenuous position considering their positioning at the start of September:

As pointed out by MLB.com's Richard Justice, Houston's once-sizable lead in the AL West evaporated quickly and leaves it well behind the Texas Rangers:

While momentum is not on the Astros' side, they are a more talented team than both the Twins and Angels, and they have the all-important advantage on the mound in terms of starting pitching.

Houston always has a legitimate chance to win thanks to the likes of Dallas Keuchel, Scott Kazmir, Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers, which is something the other wild-card contenders can't necessarily say.

The Astros are hanging by a thread, but they'll find a way to earn the second wild-card spot and set up a clash with the Yankees.

NL Wild Card

Things aren't nearly as complicated in the National League. Between the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, two teams are almost guaranteed to clinch a wild-card spot, while the other will win the NL Central.

St. Louis has a leg up on the divisional race with a four-game lead over the Bucs and a seven-game advantage over the Cubbies entering Thursday. Assuming the Cards are able to hang on, Pittsburgh and Chicago will be left to battle for home-field advantage for the NL Wild Card Round.

With that said, Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant isn't ready yet to concede the NL Central, according to 670 The Score:

Both the Pirates and Cubs have an uphill climb with so few games remaining, so the likeliest scenario is that they will have to clash in a one-game playoff for a chance to play in the National League Division Series.

That isn't ideal for either team since they have both been among the best in baseball all season long, but that is why winning the World Series is so difficult.

The atmosphere for a wild-card game between the Pirates and Cubs would be electric, but even though Pittsburgh is currently in line to land home-field advantage, Adam Schein of SiriusXM believes it would be at a disadvantage since Chicago will be able to send 20-game winner Jake Arrieta to the mound:

The Pirates wouldn't exactly have a pushover in their own right, as they would most likely counter with Gerrit Cole, but beating Arrieta in his current form would be an extremely tall order.

It seems as though a top contender will be eliminated one game into the playoffs in the NL, and while that is unfortunate for either the Pirates or the Cubs, it will make for perhaps the most exciting game of the season.

Predicted Playoff Bracket

American League
National League
Round	Away Team	Home Team
AL Wild Card	Houston Astros	New York Yankees
ALDS	Texas Rangers (No. 3 seed)	Kansas City Royals (No. 2 seed)
ALDS	AL Wild Card Winner (New York Yankees)	Toronto Blue Jays (No. 1 seed)
Round	Away Team	Home Team
NL Wild Card	Chicago Cubs	Pittsburgh Pirates
NLDS	New York Mets (No. 3 seed)	Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 2 seed)
NLDS	NL Wild Card Winner (Chicago Cubs)	St. Louis Cardinals (No. 1 seed)

The wild-card teams are at a disadvantage not only because they have to compete in a one-game playoff but also due to the fact that the winner must face the league's No. 1 seed in the divisional series regardless of whether they are in the same division.

While the Kansas City Royals are currently tops in the AL, they have been falling, which opens the door for the Jays to take that No. 1 position. If the Yanks win their home Wild Card Round game over the Astros, then the Yanks and Blue Jays will meet while the Royals and Texas Rangers battle it out in the other series.

In the National League, an NL Central series is almost guaranteed in the NLDS between the Cardinals and either the Pirates or the Cubs. Due to the Arrieta factor, look for Chicago to move on. That would leave the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers to take part in the other NLDS series featuring a pair of huge markets.

A lot can change between now and the end of the regular season, but based on the way things are trending, don't be surprised if the playoff looks like this come October.

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