Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills will take on an AFC East opponent for the second straight week and try to improve upon a dismal record in divisional road games over the past few years when they visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The Bills have lost 10 of their past 14 road games against AFC East foes, but two of the wins have come at Miami.

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report can be found here.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.9-19, Dolphins

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo and Miami were viewed as potential challengers for the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in the division this season, but neither has shown they have the offensive firepower to match them on the scoreboard so far. Of the two teams, though, the Bills look to have more weapons, even though quarterback Tyrod Taylor has started just two games in his NFL career, both this year.

New head coach Rex Ryan knows the division well and covered the spread in three straight games against the Dolphins before getting let go by the New York Jets. Ryan has given Buffalo some swagger, which is something Miami still lacks despite the addition of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh as the team’s big free-agent signing over the offseason.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins have yet to play their best game this season, needing a punt return for a touchdown to beat the Washington Redskins 17-10 on the road in their season opener and then getting upset last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-20 away from home. They were road favorites in both games and now get to play their home opener.

While Miami has not been a tough place to play for opponents since the days of the Orange Bowl, the players should still be motivated to perform better in front of their fans, especially against a division rival. The Dolphins have also been the trendy sleeper pick to win the AFC East, and now is the perfect time to show critics why.

Smart pick

While Ryan is very familiar with Miami, there is a reason he was fired by the Jets. The Dolphins beat his team in eight of the last 13 meetings, going 7-6 against the spread. The Bills are coming off an emotionally charged loss to the Patriots at home last week, so this definitely qualifies as a letdown spot for them.

Miami may have been caught looking past Jacksonville to this game, but they will be completely focused on beating Buffalo. Look for the Dolphins to make a statement with an easy win and cover against the Bills.

Betting trends

The Bills are 2-10 SU in their last 12 divisional games on the road.

The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.

The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.