TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Odds, College Football Pick

TCU is 8-2 both straight up and against the spread over its last ten Big 12 conference games, while Texas Tech is 2-12 SU and 5-8-1 ATS in its last 14 conference contests. The preseason favorites to win the Big 12 begin their conference slate on the road when the Horned Frogs take on the Red Raiders Saturday afternoon in Lubbock.

Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.3-27.7 Horned Frogs

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

Texas Christian is off to a 3-0 start to this season, including a 56-37 victory over SMU last week. The Frogs spotted the Mustangs the first touchdown of the game, then scored 42 of the next 52 points to take control.

They allowed Southern Methodist to get within five points midway through the fourth quarter but put the game away with a pair of late scores. TCU racked up 720 yards of offense, 266 on the ground, while quarterback Trevone Boykin enhanced his Heisman chances by throwing five touchdown passes and running for another.

The Frogs opened this season with a 23-17 victory at Minnesota, then spanked Stephen F. Austin 70-7.

With 15 starters back from a team that probably should have made the College Football Playoff last year, including 10 on offense, TCU is shooting for nothing less than a playoff appearance this season.

Why the Texas Tech Red Raiders can cover the spread

Texas Tech, which won four games all of last season, is also off to a 3-0 start to this season, and 2-0-1 ATS, after upsetting Arkansas last week in Fayetteville, 35-24, winning outright as a 10-point road dog. The Raiders took a 7-0 lead less than five minutes into the game and never trailed, stiffening in the second half to hold the Hogs to a single field goal. Texas Tech outgained Arkansas 486-424 and went 7-for-10 on third-down conversions, as quarterback Patrick Mahomes hit on 26 of 30 pass attempts, keeping the chains moving.

The Red Raiders opened this season with a 59-45 victory over Sam Houston, pushing the spread as two-touchdown favorites by allowing the Bearkats to score the last two meaningless touchdowns of the game, the second one with less than two minutes to go. Texas Tech then topped UTEP 69-20, covering at minus-20.

The Raiders returned 17 starters this season, their third under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. And college football teams often make great strides in their third seasons under new coaching regimes.

Smart pick

To reach the College Football Playoff, TCU needs to win the Big 12, and it can't do that by opening its conference slate with a loss to an inferior team. Even a close victory could be harmful to its playoff chances. Also, Texas Tech is coming off an upset victory over an SEC team and might be ripe for a letdown. The smart choice here is with the Frogs, playing on the road, where the spread is a little more amenable.

Betting trends

TCU is 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 games against the Big 12.

Texas Tech is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games against the Big 12.

Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.