Is Strong Week 2 a Sign of Things to Come for NFL's Second-Year QBs?

The second week of the 2015 NFL season was a major success for several young quarterbacks across the league. Despite some bumps in their respective rookie seasons in 2014, the current second-year quarterbacks are coming off a great week. The quartet of starters located in Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland and Jacksonville helped deliver a win for their respective team with a strong performance.

Entering 2015, the only quarterback who had really cemented their position as a long-term starter was Teddy Bridgewater of the Minnesota Vikings. Bridgewater’s calm demeanor and polished passing helped him stand out above the rest. He’s continued that play into this season as well.

But the other three second-year quarterbacks may have started their ascent as well. Many may have wanted to write off one or all of Blake Bortles, Derek Carr and Johnny Manziel, but they’re each creating positive momentum to build off. So the question is: Was Week 2 a sign of things to come for these quarterbacks?

It’s impossible to know for sure off just one game, but each quarterback showed the playmaking prowess needed to be a successful starter. We’re going to break down the play of Bridgewater, Carr, Bortles and Manziel using accuracy charts I made to help go further in depth. These charts help weed out drops and obvious throwaway passes but also illustrate any weakness or should-have-been turnovers.

An accurate pass is considered one in the direct catch radius of the wide receiver. If the receiver had to contort their body or make a considerable adjustment for the ball, then the pass wasn’t accurate. Keep that in mind as you’re interpreting the data.

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings

Week 2 Stats: 14-of-18 for 153 yards and one touchdown

It’s unknown why the NFL overlooked Bridgewater as an elite quarterback prospect in the 2014 class, but many teams are likely regretting their decision to pass on him. Bridgewater’s early success despite a very limited surrounding cast has been as promising of a start as possible. Now that the Vikings have Adrian Peterson back in the fold and running well, this offense figures to take off.

Throughout the Vikings’ 26-16 victory against the Detroit Lions, Bridgewater was meticulous and efficient in attacking a talented secondary. He didn’t have to do the heavy lifting since Peterson was running wild, but he had to supplement his production on third downs.

Self-charting

As you can see on his accuracy chart, Bridgewater excelled delivering catchable passes. His overall rate of 82 percent is one of the highest of all quarterbacks through the first two weeks of the season, from what I’ve charted. Most impressively, he is getting the job done on third down, with a rare 80 percent mark.

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The best part of Bridgewater’s fit with Minnesota is that he won’t always have to bear the lion’s share of the work. With just 18 passing attempts, he had to thread the needle a few times, but not on every play. Below is an example of Bridgewater coming through in a scoring situation.

Now, Bridgewater is capable of doing more, but the Vikings won’t have him do that unless really needed. That sets up Bridgewater for as much success as anyone. I fully expect him to continue his stellar play on the Vikings' quest for the playoffs.

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

Week 2 Stats: 30-of-46 for 351 yards, three touchdowns and one interception

After a dreadful Week 1 performance that ended prematurely due to injury, the Oakland Raiders and quarterback Derek Carr looked like a completely different offense in Week 2. Not only was Oakland more aggressive against a talented Ravens secondary, but Carr took advantage for several huge plays.

The Raiders deserve a lot of credit for not only aggravating Baltimore’s communication issues, but also capitalizing. That doesn’t always happen in the NFL because the windows are still small and human error takes place. But the Raiders pulled out a thrilling victory due to several broken plays going their way.

Self-charting

Carr was the orchestrator of it all. Above, you can see his accuracy chart. Outside of a bad interception to the deep left, he was excellent at converting opportunities. He checked down often on third downs, which inflated his third-down percentage, but was still solid there.

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A major positive was how many big plays the Raiders hit. Above is the first of the game—and career—for wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper torched cornerback Jimmy Smith on a corner route for a 68-yard touchdown. This is especially impressive since Smith is one of the best cover men in the NFL.

Carr had a bit of a lull later in the game, when he began to stare down his targets more often and kept things short. That’s an area of growth he’ll have to keep improving upon. Throws like the one below must be more accurate, especially considering Smith’s caliber and ball skills as the trail man in coverage.

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Carr may not be able to consistently post such gaudy numbers, but if the offense will routinely attack downfield, he will have considerable success. His rookie season was difficult to decipher because of the bad offense in place, but he looks like he’s adjusting well to a new scheme. He has all of the talent needed to be a solid starter.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 2 Stats: 18-of-33 for 273 yards and two touchdowns

The results-based analysis on Blake Bortles last season seemed to create a very negative vibe around the Jaguars quarterback. His statistics were poor without context, but when I went back to the film, he had a lot of moments that suggested he can be a very good player. So much so that I wrote that he would be the NFL’s breakout quarterback in 2015.

We’ll see how that pans out, but so far, so good. Bortles still has hiccups and bad moments, but his supporting cast is executing just a little better. In turn, those throws Bortles was already making aren’t hitting the ground quite as often. Still, I’ve charted nine team drops for the Jaguars in just two games, so it’s still an issue plaguing this team.

Self-charting

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Bortles’ accuracy isn’t yet where it needs to be on a play-to-play basis, as the chart above shows. Delivering a catchable ball just 61 percent of the time is not good enough for Bortles to ascend into a guaranteed long-term starter, but there has been progress. His play must feature a little less variance, which will happen if he shores up the overthrows on intermediate passes.

His accuracy deep has been very good. He’s also shown the ability to move within the pocket and avoid rushers to buy time. Above is a great example, as he feels the heat but moves to his left into enough space to launch into a pass. Bortles delivers a perfect, in-stride ball to Allen Robinson.

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For Bortles to fulfill his upside, he’ll have to anticipate routes and release the ball quicker. He nearly derailed the Jaguars’ first-half efforts with his late throw over the middle of the field in the clip below. Luckily for him, Brent Grimes dropped the interception.

Bortles borders on wonderful in some moments, but disastrous the next. If he can hone his volatility as a passer, he can be very good. Week 2 was a solid step in the right direction.  

Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns

Week 2 Stats: 8-of-15, 172 yards and two touchdowns

Taking over the starting job for the injured Josh McCown, Johnny Manziel faced a Tennessee Titans team coming off a big Week 1 victory. But the Cleveland Browns were simply too much for the Titans, allowing just 14 points and getting to Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota throughout the entire game. All Manziel had to do was provide a big play or two for the Browns to claim a win.

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Manziel did just that, hooking up with receiver Travis Benjamin twice on deep passes for touchdowns. Benjamin torched safety Coty Sensabaugh on each touchdown, getting easy separation with his great speed. Manziel delivered his best throw of the day on what ended up being the kill shot to the Titans’ comeback.

On 3rd-and-6, Manziel finally had a moment that reminded everyone why he won the Heisman Trophy at Texas A&M in 2012. He rolled out to his weak side, as he likes to do often, and kept his eyes downfield. Then, Manziel delivered a perfect pass to Benjamin as he sprinted into the end zone.

That’s the third deep-ball touchdown that Manziel and Benjamin have connected on, but the first that Manziel hit him in stride. The other two were bad blown coverages that Manziel underthrew. To deliver this pass in a pressure situation is a great sign for Manziel.

Self-charting

Overall, his accuracy for the day was fairly poor. His lower-body mechanics and arm talent creates some issues when he’s trying to fit the ball into tight windows. His decision-making was generally better than what we’ve seen, too, minus this play below.

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Manziel easily has the furthest to go of all the second-year starting quarterbacks. The Browns understandably doesn’t trust him with the ball because of his penchant for turnovers. But they must continue to play him to see if he can fulfill the talent they saw from him in college.

I’m pessimistic on Manziel just because he has so far to go compared to his peers. Experience is part of the issue, but also his learning curve is as steep as any young quarterback could have. This will surely be a carefully monitored situation moving forward.

All stats used are from sports-reference.com.

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. 

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