Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons fell by the wayside over the last couple of seasons and became a bad bet, especially on the road, where they're just 4-12 straight up and 6-10 against the spread. But the Falcons showed some spark in their first game under their new head coach last week, upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles. Atlanta shoots for another upset of an NFC East outfit when it visits New Jersey to take on the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Giants opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.6-27.2 Giants

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta opened the Dan Quinn era with a 26-24 victory over Philadelphia on Monday night, winning outright as a three-point home dog. The Falcons led 20-3 at the half, fell behind by a point midway through the fourth quarter, promptly kicked a field goal to take the lead and then hung on from there. Atlanta outrushed the Eagles 105-63, as rookie running back Tevin Coleman gained 80 yards on 20 carries, and won time of possession by a 35-25 margin.

The Falcons are coming off consecutive lost seasons, but injuries played a big part. With better health and improvements in the running game and on defense—Quinn did some great things as defensive coordinator with the Seattle Seahawks—Atlanta could find itself right back in the running in the up-for-grabs NFC South this season.

Why the Giants can cover the spread

The Giants opened this season by blowing a game they should have won, falling against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night 27-26. New York turned three Cowboys turnovers into 17 points and led late, but poor play-calling, poor clock management and a brain fart from quarterback Eli Manning gave Dallas a chance, and the Giants defense complied.

New York could take solace in the fact that it had a chance to beat a good opponent on the road last week while not playing its best. With better execution and game management, the Giants would be 1-0. And they did hang on to cover as seven-point dogs, so there's that.

If they Giants can eliminate the mistakes, get the running game going and create a few turnovers, they will get to 1-1 Sunday.

Smart pick

The Giants just beat the Falcons 13 NFL weeks ago 30-20, covering as four-point home favorites, but that was a different Atlanta team than the one that beat Philly on Monday night. The smart choice in this spot is the Falcons, and they won't need the points.

Betting trends

• The Falcons are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
• The Falcons are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road in September.
• The Giants are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in September.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.