Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (0-1) will look to rebound from a season-opening loss and beat the Green Bay Packers (1-0) for the fourth straight time in the Week 2 Sunday night matchup. However, the Packers have won nine in a row as home favorites to go along with a 6-2-1 mark against the spread.

Point spread: Packers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.1-21.8 Packers

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

Seattle owns Green Bay mentally going back to the infamous Fail Mary play three years ago on Monday night that resulted in a 14-12 victory. The Seahawks have to still be in the (cheese)heads of the Packers, too, after they rallied back from an early 16-0 deficit in last year’s NFC Championship Game to win 28-22 in overtime, sending them to their second consecutive Super Bowl.

Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson will be back in the state that made him an NFL prospect while leading the Wisconsin Badgers, and he has proved time and again he can play with the best of them no matter the location. Wilson was also 6-1 straight up and against the spread in his previous seven September games before last week’s overtime loss to the St. Louis Rams.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay will be playing with triple revenge in this spot based on the recent history between the teams, and a win here could be huge down the road if it is still fighting for home-field advantage at the end of the season. The prospects of sending the Seahawks to 0-2 also have to be appealing for a Packers team that has a healthy Aaron Rodgers this time around.

Rodgers was gimpy the last time he met Seattle, yet the 2014 MVP still nearly led his team to the upset in the toughest stadium in the league. While the past three meetings have all taken place at CenturyLink Field, the edge is now in Green Bay’s favor, playing in front of its own fans at Lambeau Field.

Smart pick

Seattle has a serious hole in its secondary with safety Kam Chancellor continuing his holdout due to a contract dispute. Rodgers is one of the smartest signal-callers around and will look to exploit that weakness, and he will be motivated to beat the Seahawks in his home stadium.

The Packers may not have wide receiver Jordy Nelson, but his replacement, Devante Adams, could be the secret weapon in this game along with tight end Richard Rodgers. If the Rams can knock off Seattle by a field goal, Green Bay should be able to win by a wider margin of at least a touchdown in this spot.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in the Seahawks' last four games.

The Seahawks are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games in September.

The Packers are 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.