Stanford Cardinal vs. Southern Cal Trojans Betting Odds, College Football Pick

The USC/Stanford rivalry runs in streaks as of late; 15 years ago the Cardinal won three meetings in a row, then the Trojans won five of six, then Stanford won four in a row and now Southern Cal has won and covered the last two. In a big early season game in the Pac-12 the Trojans and Cardinal get it on Saturday night at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.

Point spread: Trojans opened as eight-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.4-21.0 Trojans

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

After opening this season with an upset loss at Northwestern the Cardinal bounced back last week to beat Central Florida 31-7, covering as 20-point favorites. Stanford started somewhat slowly, needing 25 minutes to get on the board, and only led 10-0 at the half, but it stretched that lead to 31-0 before the Knights finally scored with just over a minute to go in the game. The Cardinal outgained UCF by 310 yards, outrushed the Knights 130-30 and won time of possession by a 36-24 margin. That's how you win games and cover spreads in college football.

Stanford returned 13 starters this season, including senior quarterback Kevin Hogan (34 career starts) and four along the offensive line. And while the defense might be a work in progress it did just limit Central Florida to 180 total yards.

Finally, the Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS as underdogs under head coach David Shaw, and 2-0 both SU and ATS when getting 10 points or more, thanks to back-to-back upsets of Oregon when it was ranked No. 1 and No. 2 back in 2012-13.

Why the Southern Cal Trojans can cover the spread

Southern Cal is 2-0 both SU and ATS on this young season, after slicing through Idaho last week 59-9. The Trojans led 21-0 after 10 minutes of play, 38-3 at the half, and later tacked on one last score with seven minutes to go to cover as 44-point favorites. USC piled up 737 yards of offense, 284 on the ground, while quarterback Cody Kessler threw for 410 yards and three scores.

The Trojans opened this season two weeks ago with a 55-6 rout of Arkansas State, covering at -27.

USC returned 14 starters this season, including Kessler (who owns a career touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio of 66/12), the entire offensive line and seven on defense. And with the sanctions now off the Trojans they are as deep as they've been since Pete Carroll abandoned ship six years ago.

Smart pick

USC might be the better team here, and may very well win this game, but it was only 2-3 ATS last year when favored by double digits. And Stanford has proven itself dangerous in situations like this. The smart money here resides with the Cardinal, plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in Stanford's last three games against USC.

Stanford is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games.

USC is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games in September.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.