USF Bulls vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds, College Football Pick

The South Florida Bulls are still in rebuilding mode and as such find themselves as heavy underdogs on a regular basis. However, USF is 7-2 against the spread as a dog of two touchdowns or more over the last two seasons. The Bulls fall into that category again heading into their bout with Everett Golson and the Florida State Seminoles Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 29-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.4-19.0 Seminoles

Why the South Florida Bulls can cover the spread

USF opened this season with a 51-3 victory over Florida A&M, covering as a 28-point favorite. The Bulls outgained the Rattlers 556-182 and outrushed them 275-12, and while, yes, it was Florida A&M, it was a much better opener than a couple years ago, when South Florida got ambushed by McNeese State.

USF only returned 11 starters this season from a team that went 4-8 last year, but they include 1,000-yard rusher Marlon Mack and seven on defense, including last year's top five tacklers.

College football teams often make good progress in the third year of new coaching regimes, and the Bulls are in their third season under head coach Willie Taggart. This is probably their best team in five years, although it might not show up in the win-loss column.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU began its season with a 59-16 romp over Texas State, also covering as a 28-point favorite. The Seminoles led 14-0 after one quarter, allowed the Bobcats to get within 14-10, then exploded for the game's next 35 points to take control.

Florida State racked up 636 yards of offense, 266 on the ground, while Golson, the transfer from Notre Dame, hit on 19 of 25 passes for 302 yards and four scores without an interception. The Seminoles also only returned 11 starters this season from a team that made the College Football Playoff last season, but they include 1,000-yard rusher Dalvin Cook and seven on defense, including last year's top four tacklers.

And Golson isn't exactly a newcomer, having started 23 games for the Fighting Irish. Florida State also only returned 11 starters two seasons ago; they won the national championship that year.

Smart pick

Florida State is probably going to win this game, but playing at home means the spread is probably inflated. And South Florida has shown an ability to cover big spreads in recent seasons. The smart money here resides with the Bulls, plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of South Florida’s last 10 games.

South Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against the ACC on the road.

Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.