Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Odds, Football Pick

Notre Dame won its season opener under the watch of Touchdown Jesus, but now the Fighting Irish hit the road, where they're just 3-6 both straight up and against the spread over the last two seasons. Notre Dame hopes to turn those trends around when it takes on Virginia Saturday in Charlottesville.

Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 11.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.8-21.6 Fighting Irish

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish opened this season with a 38-3 victory over Texas, easily covering as nine-point favorites. Notre Dame led 14-0 after one quarter and never let the Longhorns back in the game, eventually outgaining Texas 527-163, winning the ground battle 214-60 and holding the ball for over 39 minutes. That's how you win games and cover spreads.

The Irish returned 16 starters this season from a team that started 7-1 last season but faded thanks to a bad case of the injury bug. Six are back on offense—and that doesn't include new starting quarterback Malik Zaire, who just hit on 19 of 22 throws for 313 yards and three scores in his second career start. And 10 starters are back on defense.

Notre Dame lost running back Tarean Folston for the season to a knee injury early in the Texas game, but it seemed to weather his absence just fine.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers can cover the spread

The Cavs began this season with a disappointing 34-16 loss out at UCLA, but they did just manage to push the spread as 18-point dogs. UVA only trailed by one score at halftime, fell down by 25, but came up with a late touchdown with three minutes to go, much to the relief of its financial backers.

So Virginia is now 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, and the Cavs are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home dogs.

Virginia only returned 10 starters this season from a team that went 5-7 last year, but they include four along the offensive line and three along the defensive line. And isn't that where games and covers are decided, down in the trenches?

Smart pick

Zaire looked great last week, and Notre Dame is simply the better team here. And playing on the road means the spread is little more amenable. The smart choice here is giving the points with the Irish.

Betting trends

Notre Dame is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games in September.

Notre Dame is 0-5 SU in its last five games on the road.

Virginia is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games at home in September.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.