Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos will be opening the season at home against the Baltimore Ravens for the second time in three years, and they will be hoping for a similar result following a 49-27 rout as 7.5-point favorites back in 2013.

The biggest difference for the Broncos this time around is that they will have a new head coach in Gary Kubiak, as he replaces the departed John Fox, who later took the same job with the Chicago Bears.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as four-point favorites; the total was 53 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.6-20.0 Broncos

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore was the victim of Denver playing with major revenge the last time they met, and that obviously will not be the case Sunday. The Broncos had lost to the Ravens 38-35 at home in overtime during the divisional round of the playoffs, with the latter going on to win the Super Bowl.

A lot has changed since then, with Denver suffering another disappointing home loss to the Indianapolis Colts in the postseason last year. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is not the same record-breaking player he was at that time, and this actually could end up being his last season.

For Baltimore, defense will again be the key to staying close and covering, and the team should be improved there. The Ravens are also 4-0 against the spread in their past four games as underdogs.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver has been a very good home team recently with Manning under center, winning 10 of their last 11 games there as a favorite. The Broncos should have no problem transitioning to Kubiak’s coaching style either, especially since Manning will likely be able to do whatever he wants on offense anyway.

They started out 0-3 ATS in their first three games a year ago, but that was before running back C.J. Anderson emerged as the top player among the stable of players at the position. Anderson’s impact was felt almost immediately, with the team winning five of six down the stretch before flaming out in the playoffs again.

With him as the starter from the beginning of the season on, Manning will not feel too much pressure, and Denver’s offense should be more lethal.

Smart pick

While it will not be as high-scoring as the previous meeting, there will still be a lot of points in this one. The over has cashed in the last four games between the teams along with the past 10 games for the Broncos against AFC North foes.

Each quarterback will be fresh following the offseason to get healthy and ready for this game, and both Denver’s Manning and Baltimore’s Joe Flacco have valuable dual-threat running backs who can help them out when needed. In a matchup between two very balanced yet potentially prolific offenses, look for it to also finish over the total.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in the Ravens' last four games against the Broncos.

The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.

The Broncos are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 games as home favorites.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.