Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots will kick off 2015 at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL's season opener Thursday night, hoping to win for the ninth time in 12 meetings both straight up and against the spread.

The teams last met in 2013, with the Patriots demolishing the Steelers 55-31 as six-point home favorites, and both offenses will be primed for a high-scoring game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

Point spread: Patriots opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 54.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (see line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.8-23.7 Patriots

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh has actually split the past four meetings with New England, winning in Foxborough 33-10 seven years ago and then 25-17 three seasons later at home. The Steelers won as underdogs in both situations and are fully capable of pulling off the upset again if they can get their passing game to expose the Patriots defensively, especially in the secondary.

There is no more Darrelle Revis to shut down Pittsburgh’s top receiver, so Antonio Brown could be in for a big game. In addition, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will likely need to throw the ball more, since running back Le’Veon Bell is out for the first two games due to a suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy.

Pittsburgh is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog and 5-2 SU in its past seven against AFC East opponents on the road during the regular season. These betting trends all work in favor of the Steelers.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England will have a very motivated Tom Brady under center after his four-game suspension was overturned from his role in the Deflategate scandal. When Brady has a chip on his shoulder, bettors need to be aware that he will do everything he can to perform at his best and run up the score as much as he possibly can.

The Patriots have won 13 of their last 14 games as home favorites during the regular season and will also be looking to cover their third straight game overall, following their wins in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh’s defense kept the team from being elite a year ago and will likely have problems matching up with New England’s receivers, most notably tight end Rob Gronkowski. The absence of Bell in the backfield for the Steelers also makes their offense predictable, which should help the Pats.

Smart pick

In an exciting matchup where both offenses have the potential to be explosive and each defense leaves a lot to be desired, the over looks like the best bet.

The over has cashed in eight of the previous 10 games between the teams, and the presence of Brady over backup Jimmy Garoppolo versus Roethlisberger will make fantasy football owners happy, because their numbers should be huge. It also helps that Bell and New England running back LeGarrette Blount are suspended, so watch for a shootout.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 1-3 ATS in their last four games in September.

The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs during the regular season.

The total has gone over in six of the Steelers' last eight games on the road in September.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.