Texas Longhorns vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds, College Football Pick

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish ended last season with a thud, losing four of their last five games and going 1-5 against the spread over their last six contests. The Irish and their financial backers are hoping they can put that behind them and begin this season anew when they host the Texas Longhorns Saturday night in South Bend.

Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (see line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark's computer: 25.7-20.3 Fighting Irish

Why the Longhorns can cover the spread

Texas only returns 12 starters this year from a team that went 6-7 with a bad bowl loss last season, but this is just part of the process in which new head coach Charlie Strong finds the players for his system and puts them into place.

And great talent exists across the board. Seven starters are back on offense, including dual-threat quarterback Tyrone Swoopes and the entire offensive line, while five starters are back on defense, including three-quarters of the secondary.

Strong had to clean out the barn when he took over last season, and while that made for a tough debut season in Austin, he's got this program heading in the right direction.

Why the Fighting Irish can cover the spread

After beginning last season with just 10 returning starters, Notre Dame gets back 16 this season. Seven return on offense, including last year's leading rusher, top four receivers and three of the big dogs up front. Nine starters are back on defense, so improvement is almost a certainty on that side of the ball.

The Irish lost five games last season, but three of them came by a total of 10 points, including a heartbreaker against Florida State. With more experience, Notre Dame should be able to turn those close losses into close wins.

Smart pick

Notre Dame may very well win this game, but the Irish are just 10-13 ATS as home favorites under head coach Brian Kelly and just 12-18 ATS when favored by a touchdown or more, regardless of the site, over that same span. So it appears the smart money in this spot resides with Texas, plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in five of Texas' last six games.

The total has gone over in seven of Notre Dame's last eight games.

Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.