Louisville Cardinals vs. Auburn Tigers: Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

The Louisville Cardinals were a great road bet last season, going 5-1 against the spread and covering their last four road contests in a row. The Cardinals begin this season away from home when they take on Auburn in an interesting matchup at the neutral Georgia Dome on Saturday afternoon in Atlanta.

Point Spread: The Tigers opened as 10.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (see line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark's computer: 21.0-20.1 Tigers

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

Louisville only returns nine starters from a team that went 9-4 last season but also adds several quality transfers for its second season under head coach Bobby Petrino.

Five starters are back on offense, led by quarterback Will Gardner and last year's leading rusher, Brandon Radcliffe, and while only four starters are back on defense, they're all among the front seven. And three transfers, including former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields, are expected to fill three other spots.

Despite the low number of returning starters ,the Cardinals have enough to at least keep this one close, and possibly pull off the outright upset.

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

Auburn returns 12 starters this season from a team that went 8-5 last season, an almost inevitable regression after nearly winning the national championship the season before.

Only four starters are back on offense, but they're led by a Heisman candidate at quarterback in Jeremy Johnson and three of the big boys along the offensive line. And eight starters return on defense, which is now led by new (and former) coordinator Will Muschamp, who has gotten some great results in the past.

Two years ago, on their way to the BCS title game, the Tigers went 12-2 against the spread; last year they went 4-9. Might another reversal be in order?

Smart pick

Auburn went only 3-6 ATS as a favorite last season, while Louisville, as mentioned above, had great success as an underdog. And while improvement is expected for the Tigers on defense, it might take a little time. The smart betting choice here is with the Cardinals and the points.

Betting trends

Auburn is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games.

The total has gone under in nine of Louisville's last 12 games on the road.

The total has gone under in 11 of Auburn's last 13 games vs. the ACC.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get Odds Shark's free odds tracker app.