First Super Bowl? Ranking Each NFL Team's Likelihood to Win First Lombardi This Year

Exactly 20 NFL franchises have won at least one Super Bowl—a number that hasn't changed since the Philadelphia Eagles finally joined that club at the conclusion of the 2017 season.

However, according to FanDuel odds, five of the top 12 Super Bowl favorites have never won the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Let's look at those five, along with the seven other Super Bowl-less teams, and their chances of breaking through in Los Angeles on Feb. 14.

Dead on Arrival

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Jim Harbaugh

Arizona Cardinals 

Although the Cardinals have beaten the Rams and Cowboys on the road, their roster is falling apart at 3-6 as they prepare to start a rookie quarterback for the first time in Week 10. They're three games out of a playoff spot in the NFC and have lost 10 consecutive home games dating back to last September. The rebuild trudges on.

Likelihood: 0%

Los Angeles Chargers

At 0-8, even winning each of their last nine games probably wouldn't get the Chargers into the playoffs. See ya next year. 

Likelihood: 0%

Tennessee Titans 

It's almost the same scenario for the 1-7 Titans, which is compounded by the fact that they sold off two major defensive pieces at the deadline. The team is realistically focused on 2027 and beyond. 

Likelihood: 0%

On Life Support

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Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta Falcons 

At 3-6, they're in the same wild-card jam as the Cardinals. However, a playoff path remains open in the comically weak NFC South, keeping their faint hopes alive. This roster has plenty of talent, but the quarterback position remains unstable. The reality is they're still completing a rebuild. 

Likelihood: < 1%

Carolina Panthers 

They sit atop that aforementioned comically weak division via tiebreaker at 3-5. They did gain some critical postseason experience when they almost toppled the Rams last January. Still, we're talking about a team with a bottom-five defense that has lost three in a row.

Likelihood: < 1%

Cleveland Browns 

It was never really about 2026 for these Browns, who greatly exceeded expectations early but have now crashed back to earth via back-to-back losses to the Steelers and Saints. They're 5-4, but with a minus-35 scoring margin, they've averaged just 16.0 points per game over the last five weeks.

Likelihood: < 1%

It's Complicated

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Kirk Cousins

Houston Texans 

The 3-5 Texans deserve a much better shot than the 5-4 Browns or division-leading Panthers, mainly because of talent and momentum. We know what Houston brings to the table defensively. C.J. Stroud is having an impeccably timed career year for a squad that hasn't lost in regulation since Week 4. It's not entirely out of the realm of possibility for them to stay hot, sneak in and go on their first-ever Super Bowl run. But it's still a heck of a mountain to climb considering their early hole. 

Likelihood: 3%

Minnesota Vikings

They have three more wins than Houston but are moving in the opposite direction and are stuck in a division from hell. Minnesota's quarterback problem became urgent after consecutive losses in which they scored a grand total of 21 points and fell to 6-2. Still, the defense is stacked, and at least Kirk Cousins gives them some reason for hope under center, so you can't shut the door on them just yet.

Likelihood: 3%

The Real Deal

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Josh Allen

Detroit Lions

The 6-2 Lions have the talent on both sides of the ball and are riding a four-game winning streak. However, they're stuck battling Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay in the NFC North. It's worth flagging the fact that they've faced the easiest schedule in the NFL, per ESPN's Football Power Index. That will change down the stretch, but there's no doubt the Lions are in the mix. 

Likelihood: 8%

Cincinnati Bengals 

It still isn't easy to trust these Bengals, but they certainly have the offensive talent. They're led by the MVP frontrunner at quarterback. They haven't lost since Week 4, scoring more than 30 points in every game over a four-game winning streak to emerge as the clear-cut betting favorite in the AFC North at 6-2. Given their soft second-half schedule and momentum, the top seed in the AFC is within reach. Once you have that, you're a major player. 

Likelihood: 10%

Jacksonville Jaguars 

The league's top-rated team in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and point differential (plus-108, towering over second-place San Francisco at plus-79) just got a lot better at the deadline. It's really coming together in every aspect. The path is quite clear following a 6-2 start. The only question is: Are they ready? 

Likelihood: 18%

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are holding down the top seed in the AFC with a 7-1 record. They were buyers at the deadline. Josh Allen is a prime MVP candidate, as he is definitely further along in his career than Trevor Lawrence. In fact, this Buffalo team is altogether more experienced and mature than the Jags. This very well could be the year it finally happens for the league's top offensive squad. Then again, we've been fooled by them before. 

Likelihood: 20%