Between the lack of star power (aside from Tarik Skubal) in this class of free agents and the unknowns pertaining to the salary cap and how long the 2027 season will be, overall spending will likely be lower than usual during the 2026-27 Major League Baseball offseason.
Some teams are still going to be very aggressive, though.
Good news for everyone sick and tired of seeing both the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees on lists like these: Neither one made the cut.
We do expect LAD to be in the hunt for Tarik Skubal. NYY will need to rebuild its bullpen this offseason. However, if the Dodgers ultimately lose the bidding war for Skubal, it's likely to be a much quieter offseason than usual for both of those deep-pocketed franchises.
Both Chicago teams, on the other hand, are expected to be cutting checks left and right, while teams like the Padres and Blue Jays have a lot of holes to fill in their quest to build another contender.
Could this even be the year that the Cincinnati Reds make several significant signings?
Teams are presented in no particular order, outside of oscillating between NL and AL.
San Diego Padres
1 of 7
Key Free Agents: SP Michael King, SP Nick Pivetta, SP Walker Buehler, SP Robbie Ray, SP Casey Mize, SP Griffin Canning, SP Lucas Giolito, RP Adrián Morejón (qualifying offer), RP Jason Adam, 1B Ty France
Areas of Need: Starting Rotation, First Base/Left Field
As far as the lineup goes, the Padres enter the winter in better shape than most.
They lost (at least for now) Ty France after a season in which he's sure to get some consideration for "NL Comeback Player of the Year," but they retain the other nine players who appeared in at least 75 games in 2026—not to mention late-season call-up Ethan Salas. They should probably do something about a 1B/LF situation that presently looks like Gavin Sheets and Dustin Harris, but they could get away with not signing a single position player.
The starting rotation, however, needs a pretty serious makeover.
Though the Padres declined their $14M club option with Nick Pivetta, the general expectation seems to be that he'll be back in 2027 on a newly structured contract. There's also a strong belief that Michael King could re-sign with San Diego, even though he opted out of the final two years of his contract.
Omitting them for now, San Diego's projected rotation includes Joe Musgrove (who has pitched one inning in the past 25 months), Randy Vásquez, Yu Darvish (if he can return at 40 after missing all of 2026), JP Sears, and Jhony Brito/Kyle Hart.
Heck, even if you want to include King and Pivetta as re-signees, the Padres still have work to do on the open market, given the substantial uncertainty surrounding both Musgrove and Darvish.
Goodness only knows where they're finding the money to do it all. Combining known salaries with arbitration estimates for the likes of Mason Miller, Freddy Fermin, Sheets and Sears, the Padres are already looking at $180M in 2027 payroll for 15 players. (That mark ticks north of $200M if Adrián Morejón accepts the $23.15M qualifying offer.)
You got to believe the new ownership is going to be pretty aggressive, eager to win right away, before Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts really start to decline.
Toronto Blue Jays
2 of 7
Key Free Agents: OF/DH George Springer, SP Shane Bieber, SP Max Scherzer, RP Yimi Garcia, OF Myles Straw
Areas of Need: Starting Rotation, Outfield
In addition to the free agents listed above, the Blue Jays traded away Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, and Jeff Hoffman a few months ago and released Jesús Sánchez in September.
Add the long-gone Eric Lauer and Tyler Heineman to the list and Toronto is set to enter 2027 without 11 of the 22 highest-paid players from its 2026 Opening Day roster—and it might as well be 12, as José Berríos might miss all of next season to Tommy John rehab.
How aggressively will they backfill in their quest to rebound from a disappointing sub-.500 campaign?
Presumably, very aggressively.
With Cody Ponce and Spencer Arrighetti/Spencer Miles projected for two spots in this starting rotation, a reunion with Gausman or a signing of Trevor Rogers or Kaima Taira could be in the offing.
One would also assume Toronto will be heavily in the mix for Randy Arozarena and/or Seiya Suzuki, given how poorly this team slugged in 2026 and the gaping hole in its corner outfield.
It doesn't have to be outfield, either, as this DH spot is up for grabs, too. (Unless you still have faith in Anthony Santander?) That could make Toronto a candidate to sign Teruaki Sato or Brandon Lowe, even though their starting infield looks to be in good shape.
Frankly, it'd be a bit surprising if the Blue Jays didn't sign at least one of the top 10 available free agents. If you had to pick one team likely to sign multiple top-10 free agents, Toronto might be the most likely.
Chicago Cubs
3 of 7
Key Free Agents: SP Shota Imanaga, SP Kevin Gausman, SP Clay Holmes, SP Matthew Boyd, SP David Peterson, OF Seiya Suzuki (qualifying offer pending), OF Ian Happ, OF Tyrone Taylor, OF Michael Conforto, C Carson Kelly, RP Aaron Civale, RP Trent Thornton
Areas of Need: Starting Rotation, Bullpen, Starting Rotation, Outfield, Starting Rotation
Of the 10 pitchers who made at least three starts for the Cubs in 2026, here are those slated to return in 2027: Edward Cabrera (80.0 IP, 5.96 ERA), Javier Assad (94.1 IP, 3.63 ERA) and Ben Brown (68.0 IP, 1.85 ERA).
Over the final 47 games of the regular season, that trio combined to start just two games, with Brown missing the final three-plus months of the campaign due to a stress reaction in his neck that may or may not be resolved by Opening Day.
Needless to say, they have some work to do on this rotation, even with plans of adding Justin Steele (missed all of 2026) and Braxton Garrett (acquired at the trade deadline, made one relief appearance) into the mix.
While we're skeptical that the Cubs will be a serious player in the Tarik Skubal bidding war, name literally any other free-agent starting pitcher and they could be in the mix, including Trevor Rogers and Freddy Peralta.
Beyond that, they could use a legitimate closer and might be the top suitor for Adrián Morejón if he declines his qualifying offer from San Diego. David Bednar and Raisel Iglesias are also available, with plenty of ninth-inning experience under their belts.
If and when Seiya Suzuki declines his QO, the unofficial band name for Chicago's 2027 outfield becomes: PCA and the Question Marks. Maybe they let it ride with some combination of Matt Shaw, Pedro Ramírez, Kevin Alcántara, Justin Dean and James Triantos in the corner outfield spots, but investing in more of a sure thing ought to be in the cards.
Considering they already owe Dansby Swanson ($27M), Alex Bregman ($25M) and Nico Hoerner ($23M) a combined $75M, finding the funds to fix everything on their wish list probably isn't feasible. But the Cubs are going to be exceptionally busy this offseason.
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Detroit Tigers
4 of 7
Key Free Agents: 2B Gleyber Torres, SP Jack Flaherty, RP Kenley Jansen, RP Tyler Kinley, RP Burch Smith
Areas of Need: Starting Rotation, Bullpen
The Tigers were terribly unlucky in 2026.
Historically unlucky, even, posting the eighth-best run differential in the majors en route to the eighth-worst record. It was the first time since the 1993 New York Mets that a team's actual record ended up at least 13 games behind its Pythagorean record.
In other words, this isn't your standard "finished 10 games below .500 and has a lot of work to do just to be competitive next year" situation.
It's much more of a "could be one big splash, maybe two away from becoming the AL team to beat in 2027" situation.
For the Tigers, those splashes need to happen on the pitching mound.
They still have Framber Valdez for at least one more year, but rounding out the starting rotation with Troy Melton, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe and River Ryan leaves something to be desired. Adding a Trevor Rogers or Freddy Peralta to the mix would be a game-changer. Or, if they can convince Tarik Skubal to come back, even better.
Meanwhile, after declining their option on Kenley Jansen, what was already a mediocre bullpen looks even more pedestrian. Detroit could be where Adrián Morejón lands if he leaves San Diego. Or, if the Yankees let David Bednar go, he should become a primary target for a Tigers team that blew 31 saves this season.
The lineup is less of a concern, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Detroit wouldn't be a colossal surprise. At any rate, the last time the Yankees let a multiple-time All-Star second baseman walk in free agency without even extending him a qualifying offer, Gleyber Torres ended up with the Tigers. Perhaps they bring in Chisholm to replace him.
Cincinnati Reds
5 of 7
Key Free Agents: SP Brady Singer, RP Emilio Pagán, 3B/DH Eugenio Suárez, C Tyler Stephenson, RP Brock Burke, RP Pierce Johnson
Areas of Need: A bit of everything
If your gut reaction to seeing the Reds on this list is "I'll believe it when I see it," buddy, I'm right there with you.
Their "big" move last winter was giving Emilio Pagán $10M for one year, with a player option for another. The offseason before that, they extended Nick Martinez a $21.025M qualifying offer and just kind of decided not to spend any more money after he accepted it.
Yet, in MLB Trade Rumors' annual "Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions" article from earlier this week, the Reds were listed nine times as the projected landing spot by one of their three experts. The only teams picked more often were the Cubs with 10 and the Padres with 11. We've already discussed how desperately those teams need to revamp their starting rotations.
Notably, the MLBTR crew isn't expecting the Reds to do anything completely out of character. Of the 24 free agents projected to sign for at least $30M, the only one who received a Reds vote was Ian Happ, projected at 3/$45M.
In other words, instead of a "might make a major splash" level of aggressiveness this offseason, it's much more of a "could make a bunch of minor ripples" expectation.
And why not, given the sheer number of weak spots on this roster beyond Elly De La Cruz, Chase Burns and Sal Stewart?
Adding buy-low starting pitchers like Casey Mize and Kris Bubic could be brilliant. The same goes for buy-low outfielders Taylor Ward and Daulton Varsho.
Bubic barely pitched beyond mid-May. Those other three ranked among the least valuable players in all of baseball from the trade deadline onward. But the Reds would have loved to acquire any portion of that quartet a year ago. Plausibly, they could sign the whole gang for less than $50M in 2027 salary.
If they can pull off that sort of shotgun blast approach to free agency, they could go directly from last place in the NL Central to a trendy preseason pick to make the playoffs.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 7
Key Free Agents: OF Randal Grichuk, RP Sean Newcomb, SP Erick Fedde
Areas of Need: Starting Rotation, Bullpen
One of the inherent benefits of the White Sox getting good so much quicker than anticipated is that they don't have to replace any foundational pieces.
Randal Grichuk was money against left-handed pitching. Sean Newcomb was super valuable as a reliever who could go multiple innings. Losing that duo and swingman Erick Fedde in free agency doesn't exactly send Chicago scrambling back to the drawing board.
All the same, the White Sox overachieved with what was—aside from Sean Burke, Davis Martin and Swiss Army knife Grant Taylor—a rather underwhelming pitching staff.
Three of the five guys who made at least 10 starts for Chicago ended the season with a FIP of 4.75 or worse, which is decidedly not great. (Only 40 of the 213 pitchers who logged at least 70 innings had a FIP of 4.75 or worse.) Luis Castillo only made six starts for them, but he is also in that "poor FIP" camp and almost has to be in their 2027 starting rotation, considering he is the highest-paid player on this roster.
Now is the time to fix that, though.
Go sign a more established starter or two. (Imagine Sonny Gray or Nick Martinez starting for the White Sox on Opening Day.)
Sign an actual closer, too, while planning to continue leaning on Taylor when high-leverage situations arise prior to the ninth inning.
Maybe add a versatile position player like Mauricio Dubón while you're at it? He can play anywhere and help rein in this lineup's sky-high whiff rate.
Even if they don't end up with one of the top five guys on the free agent big board, it ought to be a fairly aggressive winter for the White Sox.
New York Mets
7 of 7
Key Free Agents: N/A
Areas of Need: Starting Rotation, First Base/Designated Hitter
Between Bo Bichette opting to return for another $42M season and already trading away seven free agents to be ahead of the August 3 deadline, the Mets are set up to potentially run it back again with the same roster that went 27-22 down the stretch—maybe adding top prospect Jefferson Rojas to the infield mix.
After missing the postseason for the third time in four years, does anyone honestly believe they're just going to keep the status quo?
There have already been reports of Mets GM David Stearns going to Japan to scout Teruaki Sato. The early consensus appears to be that it's a coin flip as to whether the Mets or Dodgers end up signing the biggest fish in this free-agent cycle, Tarik Skubal.
Their pursuit of Sato might be kaput after Bichette decided not to opt out. Then again, with a 1B/DH situation that consists of Jared Young, Mark Vientos and Jorge Polanco, maybe not.
But the starting rotation is where they are almost certain to make a move this winter.
Even if they whiff on Skubal, there are other options that are surely preferable to entering next season with Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea at Nos. 4 and 5 while also banking heavily on Christian Scott and Zac Thornton behind Nolan McLean as the clear ace. Jonah Tong should be part of the mix, too, but adding at least one more "postseason starter" type of arm is surely on New York's agenda.
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