A lot of words are dedicated to analyzing free-agent signings and trades immediately after they happen, but that's pure speculation. The true winners and losers of those moves don't become clear until the games are played.
Did anyone expect Nolan Arenado to rebound with a 30-homer season in Arizona or Nick Martinez to go from one of the last notable unsigned free agents to an All-Star in Tampa Bay?
Those two likely wouldn't have made a list of the 10 best offseason moves on Opening Day, but they earn a spot here in our re-ranking of the top transactions of the 2025-26 offseason.
We weighed the potential future impact of each deal, along with its 2026 contributions, to determine the rankings. Let's start with a few honorable mentions that just missed the cut.
Honorable Mentions
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Victor Mesa Jr. to the Tampa Bay Rays
Date: Feb. 6, 2026
The Rays acquired Mesa in exchange for teenage infielder Angel Brachi. He broke through as the team's primary right fielder during the second half. The 25-year-old rookie hit .288/.338/.555 with 18 extra-base hits in 158 plate appearances after the All-Star break. He is controllable through the 2031 season.
Tristan Peters to the Chicago White Sox
Date: Dec. 18, 2025
Acquired for cash considerations, Peters ended up winning the starting center field job for the White Sox in the aftermath of the Luis Robert Jr. trade with the Mets. He posted a 116 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 12 home runs and 56 RBI in a 3.6-WAR season, earning an All-Star selection and providing standout defense (5 DRS, 9 OAA) in center field.
TJ Rumfield to the Colorado Rockies
Date: Jan. 28, 2026
The Rockies cast a wide net in spring training to fill their vacancy at first base. Rumfield won the job and emerged as one of the team's best hitters. The 26-year-old hit .300/.390/.453 for a 121 OPS+ with 30 doubles, 16 home runs and 73 RBI, leading the NL in on-base percentage and pacing all Rockies players with 3.5 WAR.
10. Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto Debut With a Splash
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Murakami Date: Dec. 21, 2025
Murakami Transaction: Signed a two-year, $34 million deal in free agency
Okamoto Date: Jan. 4, 2026
Okamoto Transaction: Signed a four-year, $60 million deal in free agency
Two of Japan's most accomplished sluggers made the move stateside last offseason. Both debuted with a bang and immediately emerged as middle-of-the-order threats.
Murakami: 127 G, 130 OPS+, 35 HR, 77 RBI, 2.3 WAR
Okamoto: 156 G, 107 OPS+, 33 HR, 92 RBI, 2.5 WAR
The swing-and-miss concerns that caused Murakami's market to fall flat were not unfounded. He batted .207 with a 35.5 percent strikeout rate, but he was undoubtedly a key cog in the middle of the upstart White Sox offense.
Okamoto set Toronto's rookie home run record. He also proved to be a better-than-expected third baseman after some thought that he might fit best across the diamond at first base.
All in all, two extremely successful signings.
9. Foster Griffin to the Washington Nationals
3 of 11
Date: Dec. 22, 2025
Transaction: Signed one-year, $5.5 million deal in free agency
The No. 28 overall pick in the 2014 draft and a top prospect in the Royals farm system, Foster Griffin posted a 6.75 ERA over eight total big league innings when he made the move to the Japanese League in 2023.
After a terrific three-year run with the Yomiuri Giants, he made the move back stateside last offseason, joining the pitching-starved Nationals on a one-year deal that turned out to be an absolute steal.
He went 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 110.1 innings during the first half to earn an All-Star selection. The Nationals flipped him to Cleveland at the deadline for a package of four prospects.
In a market where even back-end starting pitchers were getting $10-12 million AAV deals, the Nationals found an All-Star caliber starter for half the price and sold high at the deadline.
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8. Nolan Arenado to the Arizona Diamondbacks
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Date: Jan. 13, 2026
Transaction: Diamondbacks acquired Nolan Arenado, $31 million from the Cardinals in exchange for RHP Jack Martinez
The fact that the Cardinals absorbed $31 million of the $42 million still owed to Nolan Arenado to facilitate the trade made it impossible to frame it as anything other than a salary dump on their end.
It could not have worked out better for the D-Backs.
They plugged a hole at third base. Arenado returned to productive middle-of-the-order form, hitting .255/.331/.475 for a 122 OPS+ with 30 home runs and 86 RBI in a 3.4-WAR season. It was his first 30-homer season since 2022. That was a massive improvement over his career-worst 89 OPS+ and 12 home runs for the Cardinals in 2025.
The D-backs have him on the books for just $6 million in 2027.
7. Sonny Gray to the Boston Red Sox
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Date: Nov. 25, 2025
Transaction: Red Sox acquire RHP Sonny Gray, $20 million from the Cardinals in exchange for RHP Richard Fitts, LHP Brandon Clarke, RHP Patrick Galle
Entering his age-36 season and coming off a 2025 campaign in which he logged a 4.28 ERA over 180.2 innings for the Cardinals, Sonny Gray was expected to be a high-priced, middle-of-the-rotation innings eater for the Red Sox.
Instead, he stepped into the staff ace role with Garrett Crochet sidelined.
With the Cardinals paying $20 million of his $35 million salary, Gray went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 149 strikeouts in 169.0 innings. He was one of only seven pitchers to log 20 quality starts.
He declined his end of a $30 million mutual option to become one of the top pitchers on the free-agent market this winter. It's hard to imagine where the Red Sox would have been without his contributions in 2026.
6. Nick Martinez to the Tampa Bay Rays
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Date: Feb. 10, 2026
Transaction: Signed to a one-year, $13 million deal in free agency
An AAV north of $10 million, even on a one-year deal, is rare free-agent spending for the Rays, but they absolutely nailed their signing of Nick Martinez after he sat on the market into February.
A valuable swingman for the Padres and Reds, Martinez had his best season after returning from a four-year stint in Japan, anchoring the Tampa Bay rotation alongside Drew Rasmussen.
The 36-year-old earned his first All-Star selection while going 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 109 strikeouts in 180 innings. The Rays' run to the World Series might not have happened without his stellar contributions.
Now, the small-market club will likely let someone else pay for his career year while they hunt for the next potential source of value.
5. Willson Contreras to the Boston Red Sox
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Date: Dec. 22, 2025
Transaction: Red Sox acquire 1B Willson Contreras, $8 million from the Cardinals in exchange for RHP Hunter Dobbins, RHP Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP Blake Aita
After watching Abraham Toro (57 starts), Romy González (41 starts), Tristan Casas (27 starts), Nathaniel Lowe (26 starts) and Nick Sogard (11 starts) hit a combined .244/.305/.386 at first base in 2025, upgrading the position was a clear priority for the Red Sox last winter.
They traded for Willson Contreras less than a month after completing another deal with the Cardinals to acquire Sonny Gray. He became the team's most consistent presence in the middle of the order.
The 34-year-old set career highs in OPS+ (153), home runs (27), RBI (81), and WAR (4.6), earning his fourth All-Star selection along the way.
He is owed $18.5 million in 2027, with $4 million covered by the Cardinals. He has a $17.5 million club option and $5 million buyout for 2028. All reasonable figures given his level of production.
4. Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles
8 of 11
Date: Dec. 11, 2025
Transaction: Signed a five-year, $155 million deal in free agency
The Orioles plummeted from fourth (4.85) to 24th (4.18) in runs per game during the 2025 season. That made retooling the offense a top priority, despite the still-present need for pitching help.
A $31 million AAV for a first baseman who is already in his 30s is a risky move, but Pete Alonso delivered in the first season of his five-year deal.
He led the AL in home runs (43) and RBI (113). His .363 on-base percentage and 149 OPS+ were both career-high marks, which is saying something considering the seven-year run he had with the Mets.
The move did little to reverse the Orioles' fortunes, as they finished below .500. They need to continue retooling the roster around him to make the significant investment pay off beyond his impressive individual production.
3. Alex Bregman to the Chicago Cubs
9 of 11
Date: Jan. 14, 2026
Transaction: Signed a five-year, $175 million deal in free agency
Letting Kyle Tucker walk in free agency might have been the best move the Cubs made last offseason, but a close second would be reinvesting that money in Alex Bregman to serve as the veteran face of the franchise.
Pete Crow-Armstrong was the team's best player, but Bregman brought a wealth of October experience and a stabilizing voice to the clubhouse while battling through a slow start. He eventually came out the other side with his usual standout production.
After posting a .696 OPS during the first half, he hit .303/.384/.626 with 19 home runs and 52 RBI in 61 games after the All-Star break.
The end result was a 124 OPS+ and 5.8 WAR in 155 games. He won his second career Gold Glove as part of the Cubs' standout infield defense.
2. Dylan Cease to the Toronto Blue Jays
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Date: Dec. 2, 2025
Transaction: Signed a seven-year, $210 million deal in free agency
Front-line starting pitching might be the most valuable commodity in Major League Baseball right now. The Blue Jays rolled the dice on Dylan Cease being just that, as he joined a short list of pitchers who have received a $200 million payday.
A 4.55 ERA in his final season with the Padres raised some red flags at first glance, but it was backed by a 3.56 FIP and an NL-leading 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
He also made at least 32 starts for the fifth consecutive season as one of the most durable starters in the league. That complete package of track record and likely positive regression made him one of the biggest signings.
The investment was immediately justified as he finished with a 2.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 239 strikeouts in 169.0 innings, leading the AL in hits per nine (5.8) and strikeouts per nine (12.7) en route to what could be a runner-up finish behind Cam Schlittler in AL Cy Young balloting.
With longtime ace Kevin Gausman traded at the deadline and now a free agent, the Blue Jays effectively addressed that roster hole a year in advance.
1. Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery to the Pittsburgh Pirates
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Date: Dec. 19, 2025
Transaction: Pirates acquire 2B Brandon Lowe, LHP Mason Montgomery, OF Jake Mangum from Rays in exchange for RHP Mike Burrows in three-team trade with Astros
The No. 1 priority for the Pirates last offseason was to improve an offense that ranked dead last in the majors in runs scored during the 2025 season.
They added several bats in free agency and on the trade market and ultimately climbed all the way to sixth in runs scored. The most impactful newcomer of the bunch was undoubtedly Brandon Lowe.
The longtime Rays second baseman posted a 121 OPS+ with 29 doubles, 35 home runs, 96 RBI and 5.4 WAR in 150 games. He received a qualifying offer this winter, and Pittsburgh will no doubt push to retain him.
That production would have easily landed this trade on the list, but it's the addition of Mason Montgomery in that three-team deal that only cost the Pirates right-hander Mike Burrows that vaults it to the No. 1 spot.
Montgomery posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 13.8 K/9 in 70 appearances. He ended up closing games by season's end, finishing with 18 saves in 21 chances. With club control through 2030, the Pirates landed a legitimate bullpen ace as a secondary piece in a three-team blockbuster.
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