With a lockout looming on Dec. 2, MLB free agents and teams alike are facing a difficult question: Now or later?
When the most recent lockout happened during the 2021-22 offseason, the camps were split pretty much right down the middle. Of the 11 players who signed for at least $100M that winter, six did so in the last 2-3 days before the lockout began, while the other five waited out the storm and signed in mid/late March.
Back then, though, adding a salary cap was more of a pipe dream for owners than the current "come hell or high water" stance that they seemingly have on the matter.
So, will there be more or less of a last-minute frenzy of signings on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1?
We shall see.
The hunch is that Tarik Skubal signs early, to ensure that what will be a monstrous contract gets locked in before the sport's financial structure potentially gets shaken to its very core. But aside from him, teams might be content to wait and see what happens.
In particular, it's probably going to be a quiet month for players who are strong candidates for three- to five-year contracts but are already in their early 30s—i.e., Randy Arozarena, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, etc.—given the threat (regardless of how credible you believe it to be) of the entire 2027 season getting canceled.
But, hey, let's make some guesses at signings that will happen in the next month.
Tyler Mahle Re-Signs with Atlanta
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Tyler Mahle was maybe the greatest under-the-radar trade deadline acquisition of all time. Between the regular season and postseason, he made 11 starts for the Atlanta Braves with a 1.86 ERA.
All told, nine of his 11 appearances with Atlanta were quality starts. In fact, he and Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen were the only pitchers to make multiple quality starts in the postseason, this despite Mahle making just two appearances to Rasmussen's five.
Not bad for a guy who had a 5.13 ERA through his 18 starts with San Francisco.
And, well, Atlanta could really use him back.
After the past couple of years, banking on either Spencer Strider or Reynaldo López staying healthy seems to be a fool's errand. If and when Spencer Schwellenbach will return after missing the entire 2026 season and undergoing elbow surgery two months ago is a big unknown. And though Didier Fuentes had a fantastic season out of the bullpen, can they stretch him out to be an effective starter in 2027?
Aside from Chris Sale, lots of question marks.
But re-upping with Mahle on a one-year, $20M or two-year, $37M type of contract could be a match made in heaven.
Teruaki Sato Signs with New York Yankees
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Five years ago, Seiya Suzuki was posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball club on November 22, opening a 45-day window in which he could sign with an MLB team.
He signed with the Cubs 116 days later, which was possible because the clock on his posting window was paused during the 99-day lockout.
It is our understanding that Teruaki Sato would be in the same boat if he is unable to finalize a deal before the lockout begins, and that he doesn't necessarily need to sign within the next month.
However, the expectation is that Sato will officially be posted this week (possibly even today), and that teams will be particularly motivated to sign him ASAP. Because if he's not signed by Dec. 2 and the lockout seriously threatens to postpone the start of—or cancel altogether—the 2027 season, there's probably going to come a point where he simply returns to the Hanshin Tigers with plans to reenter free agency in 2029.
Long story short, get ready for Sato to sign somewhere in the coming weeks.
And now that we know Bo Bichette will return to the New York Mets for another $42M season in 2027, it might be the other New York team that makes the winning bid for Sato.
There are major question marks about his ability to play third base in the majors. Since the beginning of 2023, he has committed 73 errors in his 1,226 chances at the hot corner. That's a .940 fielding percentage, which is kind of awful.
Then again, Kazuma Okamoto had a .935 fielding percentage for the Blue Jays this season, and no one was complaining about his impact with 33 home runs. Same goes for Junior Caminero's career .945 fielding percentage at third base while he racked up 87 home runs and 211 RBI over the past two years.
If Sato's bat (79 home runs and 208 RBI over the past two seasons) translates to the majors as well as that of Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami did, the Yankees would gladly live with 25-30 errors at third base in exchange for a much greater offensive impact than Ryan McMahon has provided.
Washington Nationals Make a Big Splash in Starting Pitcher Market
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For all the forthcoming talk of a salary cap, the Washington Nationals might want to start planning for a salary floor.
(And, you know, trying to improve the team so they can contend for a change in 2027.)
As things stand, they owe Keibert Ruiz $5M next year and Cade Cavalli $4M—and those are their only known figures at the moment.
While CJ Abrams is probably going to get $10M-$11M in what will be his next-to-last year of arbitration eligibility, he's probably the only other player already on this roster who is going to make at least $3M in 2027.
Despite that infinitesimal payroll, the Nationals could be a contender if they adequately address their pitching shortcomings.
To some extent, they already have.
They traded for Connelly Early, but he made just one appearance for them late in the season. He should be a middle-of-the-rotation guy in 2027. They also got both Josiah Gray and DJ Herz back from Tommy John surgeries in September, either of whom could be a tantalizing back-of-the-rotation option next to Andrew Alvarez.
Put a Freddy Peralta, Trevor Rogers or Michael King type of arm atop the rotation alongside Cavalli and this team's outlook drastically changes for the better.
And of the three, King might be the best bet to sign with the Nationals, considering he is the eldest of the bunch and could be a much-needed veteran presence in that rotation/clubhouse.
At any rate, if he doesn't re-sign with San Diego, Washington makes as much sense as any landing spot. And after going through free agency last winter and already declining his player option for 2027, he might be in more of a rush than most to get a deal done ahead of the lockout.
Brandon Lowe Re-Signs with Pittsburgh
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On Monday evening, we will officially find out which free agents received qualifying offers. It's very likely that Brandon Lowe will be on that relatively short list of names.
It's also likely that the 32-year-old second baseman will decline that one-year, $23.15M offer in pursuit of a multi-year deal.
However, that doesn't necessarily mean the relationship between Lowe and Pittsburgh is finished.
If anything, it's practically an annual tradition at this point that multiple players will decline a qualifying offer before ultimately re-signing with the same team.
Kyle Schwarber, Michael King and Zac Gallen all fit the bill this past winter. Same goes for Pete Alonso, Teoscar Hernández and Sean Manaea the previous offseason. There were two such players (Aaron Nola and Cody Bellinger) during the 2023-24 offseason, three (Aaron Judge, Brandon Nimmo and Anthony Rizzo) in 2022-23 and three more (Raisel Iglesias, Chris Taylor and Justin Verlander) in 2021-22.
So why not Lowe, who was Pittsburgh's MVP with 35 home runs and 96 RBI in 2026?
If the Pirates let him get away, second base becomes a major problem for them. (Or third base, if they move Nick Gonzales from the hot corner back to his previous home.) Either way, as the roster presently stands, they'd be forced to play one of Jared Triolo, Jacob Gonzalez, Nick Yorke or Tyler Callihan on a daily basis, and they had a collective OPS of around .610 this past season.
Help should eventually be coming in the form of Murf Gray. The third baseman had 32 home runs and a .969 OPS in 126 games played in the minors in 2026, but he might still be a year away.
In the meantime, bringing back Lowe on a short-term deal would be fantastic for a team that is in "win now" mode for the first time in a decade.
Clay Holmes Lands in San Francisco
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What happens when you combine the best ground ball pitcher in the sport (Clay Holmes) with the most home run-averse stadium in the country (Oracle Park in San Francisco)?
Dating back to 2019, Holmes has logged 17.2 innings pitched at Oracle Park, allowing just one run (no home runs). And if the Giants make a good enough offer in the coming weeks, perhaps we'll get to find out what that looks like over a much larger sample size.
Holmes has a 62.7 percent ground ball rate since the beginning of 2021. Among pitchers who have logged at least 400 innings during that window, the only others at 59 percent or greater are Andre Pallante (61.6) and Framber Valdez (60.5).
Holmes' 0.56 HR/9 rate over the past six seasons is also the lowest among all pitchers with at least 400 innings of work, tied with Tyler Rogers and slightly ahead of Logan Webb in third place, both of whom have already benefited from life at Oracle Park, where home runs go to die.
And beyond the ground ball rate, Holmes is exactly the kind of relatively affordable veteran No. 2 or No. 3 starter the Giants always seem to target. They'll probably need to spend a bit more than usual to secure the former closer turned starter who turns 34 in March, but they should be able to afford a three-year, $63M type of deal to help fill out what is presently looking like a much less than stellar rotation for 2027.
Mauricio Dubón to the Los Angeles Dodgers
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Compared to the massive contracts inked with Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Kyle Tucker in recent years, Mauricio Dubón signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers wouldn't even register on the "MLB fans' outrage" Richter scale.
But between Miguel Rojas retiring and Kiké Hernández hitting free agency, the Dodgers have a need for an established asset who can play virtually anywhere. At any rate, Freddie Freeman is 37, Max Muncy is 36, and Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández are both 34. Planning on them playing in a combined total of anywhere close to 600 games in 2027 would certainly be a decision.
The big unknown with Dubón is whether he'd prefer to remain in a super-sub role or if he's looking for a spot where he would serve as the team's primary (insert position here).
If it's the latter, maybe he can become LA's primary second baseman? That spot in the lineup has been a revolving door over the past two years.
If it's the former, he'd be a welcome addition to just about any roster—especially if Jim Bowden's projection of two years, $16M is an accurate representation of Dubón's cost in free agency. But the Dodgers, in particular, have shown an affinity for guys who can play anywhere and everywhere.
Pair him with the also versatile Tommy Edman and the Dodgers' depth chart is pretty much set.
Tarik Skubal Signs with New York Mets
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Tarik Skubal is presently the greatest pitcher in baseball. Anyone who tries to tell you otherwise is only fooling themselves.
Despite missing six weeks after undergoing arthroscopic "Skubal Scope" surgery on his elbow, he had a 2.70 ERA before the procedure and a 2.73 ERA after it, thriving regardless of whether he was pitching for the Tigers or Dodgers. And that dominant run was actually a little worse than the standard he established while winning back-to-back AL Cy Young awards.
He turns 30 on Nov. 20, and what a fitting birthday gift it would be for him to sign the most lucrative contract for a pitcher (excluding Shohei Ohtani) on that very day.
The current record belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed his 12-year, $325M deal with the Dodgers three winters ago.
But both Skubal and the New York Mets will be motivated to break that record before the lockout.
As far as the exact numbers are concerned, who knows?
Some have speculated the total face value of Skubal's deal could be as high as $500M. I'm inclined to believe it'll be more in the eight years, $350M type of range, which would still break both the AAV record (that'd be $43.75M and the current record is $43.33M) and the total contract record for a pitcher.
Either way, it'll be a lot—an amount that perhaps only Steve Cohen can justify committing to at this point in time.
At any rate, if it isn't the Mets, the other logical suitor at this price point is the Dodgers. And if the Dodgers land him just before a potential lockout, their spending would likely become an even bigger flashpoint for frustrated fans.
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