Assuming something resembling a normal MLB offseason emerges from the rubble of CBA negotiations this winter, two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal could be in line for a record-setting payday for a pitcher.
At the very least, he's a lock to exceed $200 million in his first trip to free agency. He could be eyeing a $400 million mega deal as one of the best pitchers to ever hit the open market.
There is a steep drop-off in earning power behind him in this year's free-agent class, but there are high-profile extension candidates across baseball, and more and more teams are making an early push to lock up young talent.
Ahead, we've taken a shot at predicting the next 10 players who will sign $200 million contracts, with age, production, long-term outlook and proximity to free agency all factors in building the list.
2B/SS CJ Abrams
1 of 10
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2028
Whether he is the centerpiece of a blockbuster deal or a foundational building block for the Nationals, CJ Abrams has put himself in position for a massive payday following a career year offensively.
Still only 26 years old, he posted a 127 OPS+ with 30 doubles, 33 home runs, 106 RBI and 34 steals in a 5.1-WAR season, earning his second All-Star selection in the last three years.
Despite his defensive shortcomings and a potential long-term move to second base, his age and offensive impact make him an obvious candidate for a lucrative extension and the potential headliner of the 2028-29 free-agent class.
Even as a second baseman, he will have a strong case to eclipse the seven-year, $175 million deal that Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers prior to his age-31 season.
DH Yordan Alvarez
2 of 10
Contract Status: Two years, $53.7 million remaining on contract
Teams buying out the final year or two of a superstar's contract to lock him up with a fresh long-term extension is common practice. No one is a more obvious candidate for that approach than presumptive AL MVP Yordan Alvarez.
With two years remaining on his six-year, $115 million extension, and fresh off a season where he hit .316/.432/.601 with 42 home runs and 106 RBI to make a run at AL Triple Crown honors, he is unquestionably one of the game's elite offensive talents.
His back-loaded current deal will pay him $26.8 million in 2027 and 2028, so replacing those two years with a fresh long-term deal and an AAV somewhere in the $30 million range would not actually be tacking that much onto the payroll next year.
The Astros could also decide it's time to rebuild, which would make him a blockbuster trade chip and an obvious extension candidate for any team that ponies up the prospect talent to land him.
3B Junior Caminero
3 of 10
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, controllable through 2030
Junior Caminero will not reach arbitration for the first time until after the 2027 season. At that point, he might be in line for a record-setting payday if he continues to produce at the level he has in the last two seasons.
2025: 154 G, 130 OPS+, 45 HR, 110 RBI, 4.3 WAR
2026: 162 G, 144 OPS+, 42 HR, 101 RBI, 5.7 WAR
The Rays have never signed a player to a contract worth a guaranteed $200 million, but Caminero is a face-of-the-franchise caliber superstar worth committing a significant chunk of the payroll to for the foreseeable future.
The additional revenue that will come from their World Series trip, coupled with the potential for a salary floor to be instituted in the upcoming CBA negotiations, raises the chances of Caminero inking an extension.
The 11-year, $288.8 million extension Bobby Witt Jr. signed with the Royals is a reasonable starting point in negotiations, but we are inching closer to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 14-year, $500 million deal with every ball he sends into the seats.
SS Elly De La Cruz
4 of 10
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2029
The Reds have already approached Elly De La Cruz with an extension offer.
"We engaged in Spring Training of 2025 and presented an offer," Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall told reporters in January. "The offer would have been the largest contract in Reds history. We didn't have any further conversations regarding the offer."
The current largest contract in club history is the 10-year, $225 million deal Joey Votto signed in 2012, so he has already had the opportunity to join the $200 million club and declined.
With Scott Boras as his agent and coming off the best season of his career, in which he showed improved defensive chops alongside his tantalizing power-speed combination, the likelihood of him signing an early extension is extremely low.
The Reds could eventually put him on the trade block if an extension doesn't work out. Any team acquiring him would likely want to get a long-term deal on the books. That provides multiple avenues for a huge payday in the coming years.
RHP Logan Gilbert
5 of 10
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2027
The volatility of pitchers makes mega contracts far less common, though Dylan Cease did reel in a seven-year, $210 million payday from the Blue Jays last offseason, even coming off an inconsistent contract year.
Over the last five seasons, Logan Gilbert has averaged 31 starts and 180.1 innings while posting a 3.46 ERA and 110 ERA+. That durability and consistency make him a prime candidate for a massive contract.
His 14.2 WAR over that five-year stretch ranks among the top 20 among all pitchers. Whether it's an extension from the Mariners or as the top arm in the 2027-28 free-agent class, a boatload of money is on the horizon.
The 29-year-old played on a $10.9 million salary last season. He is projected to earn $15.4 million in his final year of arbitration, which would make him an extremely attractive trade chip if Seattle decided to deal from its pitching depth.
SS Gunnar Henderson
6 of 10
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2028
In a down year by his own lofty standards, Gunnar Henderson was still a 3.2-WAR player, posting a 102 OPS+ with 57 extra-base hits and 24 home runs while starting 149 games at shortstop.
After a 6.1-WAR rookie season in 2023 and an 8.8-WAR follow-up season in which he finished fourth in AL MVP voting, he firmly established himself as one of the game's brightest young stars.
He looked like a clear long-term building block while the Orioles were on the rise, but their stalled progress toward contention led to the Adley Rutschman trade this past summer. That might not be the end of the roster turnover.
MLB insider Buster Olney made headlines in August when he said, "he's not going to sign there long term in all likelihood," while discussing Henderson's future. Whether he is the next homegrown star out the door or reaches free agency after the 2028 season, he will command big money.
1B Munetaka Murakami
7 of 10
Contract Status: One year, $17.5 million remaining on contract
Despite a prolific run in the Japanese League, Munetaka Murakami was not met with the robust market many expected last offseason due to swing-and-miss concerns. He signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the White Sox. That translated into him becoming the center of their surprising climb to the postseason.
The 26-year-old had a .207 batting average and 35.4 percent strikeout rate, but his on-base ability (16.6 BB%, .347 OBP) and power (130 OPS+, 35 HR) still made him one of the most impactful sluggers in baseball.
If he can match that performance in his second season stateside, a significantly more lucrative contract likely awaits in his next trip to free agency.
Pete Alonso got a $31 million AAV on a five-year deal ahead of his age-31 season as an elite power hitter with limited secondary value. Murakami will be four years younger when he shops for his next contract. Even if he doesn't match that AAV, a longer deal could easily push the full value above $200 million.
SS Jeremy Peña
8 of 10
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2027
At first glance, Jeremy Peña is not an obvious candidate for a $200 million deal, but never underestimate the earning power of a quality shortstop in a thin market at the position.
The 29-year-old has taken his offensive game to another level the past two seasons, logging a .291/.345/.477 line and 130 OPS+ despite missing some time to injuries. He remains a standout defender.
With 22.2 WAR over his first five seasons and a playoff track record few players his age can match, he would be an obvious extension candidate if not for the fact that he switched agents and hired Scott Boras in June 2025.
That clearly indicates he intends to test the market after the 2027 season, which could put him on the trade block this winter. Xander Bogaerts was the same age when he signed his 11-year, $280 million contract with the Padres. While he had a longer track record, Peña is a far superior defender.
LHP Tarik Skubal
9 of 10
Contract Status: Free agent
Tarik Skubal was the only 2026-27 free agent projected to earn a contract north of $200 million in my recent article predicting the 10 biggest contracts handed out in free agency this winter.
The nine-year, $324 million contract that Gerrit Cole signed prior to the 2020 season is a logical starting point, but Skubal could be aiming for a $40 million AAV given his track record and the rising cost of frontline pitching.
Barring a surprise mega-deal for Japanese League star Teruaki Sato, the odds are extremely high that Skubal will be the next free agent to lock in at least $200 million.
With a 2.42 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 655 strikeouts in 546 innings over the last three seasons, he has firmly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the sport in the prime of his career.
OF James Wood
10 of 10
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2030
One of the key return pieces from the Juan Soto blockbuster trade with the Padres, James Wood has developed into one of the best young sluggers in baseball and the face of the franchise for the Nationals.
The towering 6'6" outfielder has put together consecutive 30-homer, 3-WAR seasons. This year, he quietly developed into a more complete hitter beneath the surface of his 144 OPS+ and 30 long balls.
The 24-year-old raised his walk rate (12.3 to 16.4 percent), lowered his strikeout rate (32.1 to 28.7 percent) and added 21 steals in 25 attempts without sacrificing any of his power production.
After signing Cade Cavalli to a four-year, $47 million extension in September, the Nationals could be looking to lock up more pieces this offseason. Wood is the top candidate for a franchise cornerstone-level deal.
.jpg?w=2560 "Report reveals list of next NFL international locations")
