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After a cinematic Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills, Bleacher Report's expert crew feels refreshed, especially since most of the panel nailed the pick.
Analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton, and Brent Sobleski, along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, are at their best when howling at the moon. They're 10-6 on lone-wolf picks, which is a sign that when most of the panel zigs, maybe you should zag, which worked out for Knox, Gagnon and O'Donnell last week.
That said, our Week 6 breakdowns start out with a lone-wolf pick in favor of the home 'dog.
Moton's lead in the standings has dwindled to two wins; almost everyone is packed together with similar records going into Week 6. Let's get to the 14-game slate breakdown against the spread.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 39-39-1
2. Davenport: 37-41-1
T-3. Gagnon: 36-42-1
T-3. O'Donnell: 36-42-1
5. Hanford: 35-43-1
6. Knox: 34-44-1
7. Sobleski: 31-47-1
Lone Wolf Picks: 10-6
Lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 4 p.m. ET. Check FanDuel for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
SEA vs. DEN | HOU vs. JAX | NYJ vs. NE | NO vs. NYG | TEN vs. IND | CHI vs. ATL | BAL vs. CLE | PIT vs. TB | CAR vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | WAS vs. SF
Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at Denver Broncos (3-2)
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Davenport: Broncos (+3)
In theory, an angry Seahawks team should have no issue moving the ball against a beat-up Denver defense, and the Broncos' offense doesn't appear to have the juice to keep pace in a shootout with Seattle. But this game isn't being played in theory. It's being played in Colorado.
We have already seen Denver beat two contenders in the Rams and Jaguars at Mile High. We have also seen the Seahawks hurt themselves with costly mistakes on the road. Add in the short week favoring the home team, and Denver wins this one outright.
Moton: Seahawks (-3)
The 49ers served the Seahawks a reality check in their road win over the reigning Super Bowl champions. Seattle has played sloppy football between Weeks 3 and 5, losing twice in that span.
After the loss to the 49ers, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald acknowledged the team's ball-security issues. Seattle has eight turnovers in its last three outings.
Expect the Seahawks to be dialed in for a short week against the slow-starting Broncos, who are tied with the Tennessee Titans for the league-worst first-half scoring average, 4.6 points, per Team Rankings.
Seattle takes an early lead and holds on by just over a field goal.
Predictions
Seahawks: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Broncos: Davenport
Houston Texans (1-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)
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Knox: Texans (+2.5)
The Jaguars have looked to be a far better team than the Texans through the first five weeks, and they'll have the benefit of playing in London for the second straight week. However, I have a hard time trusting Jacksonville after last week's miracle win against the short-handed Eagles.
Sloppy play and poor decision-making should have cost the Jags the game last Sunday. I think they'll once again struggle to pull away against a very familiar opponent.
Yes, the Texans are 1-4, but C.J. Stroud has been playing extremely well, and Houston's 11th-ranked defense may have found the spark it needed in last week's win over the Titans—after DeMeco Ryans took back play-calling. Jacksonville may escape with another London win, but I think it'll be extremely close.
Sobleski: Jaguars (-2.5)
A win over the lowly Tennessee Titans isn't enough to start believing in the Texans. Plus, the Jaguars, who are one of the NFL's best teams this season, hold a home-field advantage. C.J. Stroud still ranks among the top-four quarterbacks in times sacked. Jacksonville features a talented defensive front capable of making life miserable for Stroud while placing the Texans back into the losing column.
Predictions
Texans: Knox, Moton
Jaguars: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
New York Jets (2-3) at New England Patriots (3-2)
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Gagnon: Patriots (-7.5)
The Pats have scored 74 points over their last two games, while the Jets have managed just 29. Scraping past Cleveland in an ugly home slog does little to validate New York, especially with New England picking up serious steam. The Patriots swept this series by a combined 45 points last season, and there's little reason to expect a different script here.
Sobleski: Jets (+7.5)
The spread is intriguing with this matchup, because the Jets fell by more than a touchdown only once during their three losses. Yes, quarterback Drake Maye is coming off his best game of the season and the Patriots are at home. However, the Jets own a top-four defense and the unit is particularly good against the pass--which should allow Aaron Glenn's crew to keep this game closer than the spread suggests.
Predictions
Jets: Hanford, Sobleski
Patriots: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
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New Orleans Saints (1-4) at New York Giants (3-1-1)
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Moton: Giants (+1.5)
Based on our 10-6 record on lone-wolf picks, it's not a good sign to see our panel all on the Giants, but it makes sense in this case.
The Saints field a one-dimensional, pass-heavy offense that lacks a counterpunch without a complementary run game. They've also turned the ball over at least three times in three of their five games and face a Giants squad that's tied for fifth in takeaways with eight.
Over five weeks, the Saints have allowed the most rushing touchdowns and the third-most rushing yards. Big Blue should steamroll New Orleans with Cam Skattebo and Najee Harris if they can hold onto the ball.
O'Donnell: Giants (+1.5)
Ignore any Jameis Winston revenge game talk here. It means nothing. What does mean something is that the Giants experimented with a J.J. McCarthy package on offense in their tie with the Commanders last week. It was bad.
Winston responded well after the unsuccessful experiment, led Big Blue back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit, and put them in position to win.
Although the Giants neither won nor lost last week, now is not the time for them to get cute. And make no mistake: cute and unnecessary is exactly what a McCarthy package is and will be going forward. They do not need it.
New York leads the NFC East and faces a much tougher schedule in the coming weeks. This should be considered a must-win matchup for the home 'dogs. The Saints haven't played a road game in almost a month; their defense struggles to stop the run (third worst in the NFL), and they're tied for the league's worst turnover differential at minus-6.
The Giants need to pound the rock, open up the play-action game downfield for Jameis, and (hopefully) give their defense a chance to pin its ears back, defend with a lead, get after Tyler Shough, and force some turnovers.
This is a favorable matchup that the Giants should capitalize on.
Predictions
Giants: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Tennessee Titans (0-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
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Moton: Titans (+6.5)
This could be the week Tennessee's offense shows meaningful improvement.
The Titans face an Indianapolis defense that ranks in the bottom six against both the pass and the run. The Colts have only contained Houston, which was without wideout Nico Collins in Week 3, and Washington, which started rookie third-string quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis in London.
Before the Titans' matchup with the Texans last week, Cam Ward and Carnell Tate started to click in the passing game. Tate caught nine passes for 145 yards against the Baltimore Ravens, while Tennessee trailed for most of that game.
Still, the Titans' quarterback-receiver duo showed progress in their rapport that could carry over into this game against a porous pass defense. The Ward-Tate connection with a sprinkle of Wan'Dale Robinson puts Indianapolis on upset alert.
Sobleski: Colts (-6.5)
Aside from a lopsided Week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Colts have been competitive every week. At 2-3, Shane Steichen's squad needs to make a serious push or risk yet another playoff-less campaign. The Titans arrive at the right time. A home game against an inferior opponent should be exactly what Indianapolis needs before three difficult matchups against the Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas Cowboys.
Predictions
Titans: Hanford, Moton
Colts: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
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Hanford: Bears (-3.5)
I'm backing the Bears after a terrible showing against Green Bay last week. Caleb Williams may or may not return, but this team will be fired up knowing their QB will be back soon regardless. Michael Penix Jr.'s injury is a large part of why Atlanta lost in Week 5, and he may return for this one, but I like the Bears to surprise some in a bit of a shootout here.
Knox: Falcons (+3.5)
On paper, this feels like a mismatch in Chicago's favor. Atlanta's defense is dealing with multiple key injuries, and the status of Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) is still unclear. Meanwhile, the Bears expect Caleb Williams to return from a hamstring injury.
However, I get the strange feeling that Williams could be shaky in his first game back. That could be a massive problem if Kyle Monangai (toe) can't go, and the Bears cannot consistently run the ball effectively.
I also have serious concerns about a Chicago defense that has only looked good on occasion this season. The Bears rank 22nd in yards per carry allowed, and that's not a rate I like against Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. on the road.
Predictions
Bears: Hanford, Moton
Falcons: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)
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Gagnon: Browns (+4.5)
The Browns are 2-0 at home and haven't dropped a game in Cleveland by more than a field goal in their last five outings. They held a fourth-quarter lead over Baltimore at this site last November, and now they catch a banged-up Lamar Jackson—if he suits up at all. Count on Cleveland keeping this within one score against a flawed Ravens team that has merely been surviving.
Sobleski: Ravens (-4.5)
The Ravens are optimistic that Lamar Jackson will play Sunday, which will provide a significant advantage over the Browns, even if Baltimore's quarterback isn't as mobile as he normally is.
Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson had done enough to quiet critics after Cleveland began the season with a 3-1 record, before last week's loss to the New York Jets. However, he has not performed at a high level. The Browns' QB1 has simply been good enough not to get in the way of the team, which is exactly why Baltimore should be considered the favorite in this contest and capable of clearing the spread.
Predictions
Ravens: Davenport, Knox, Sobleski
Browns: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)
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Hanford: Steelers (-2.5)
It's possible Tampa Bay found a recipe for success running the ball last week, but the Steelers did just do a good job of containing Jonathan Taylor in their Week 5 win. The Steelers offense has found a rhythm lately with the quick passing game and a heavy dose of playmaking from Jaylen Warren. It's never pretty in Pittsburgh, but this feels like another win for Mike McCarthy to push his team further up the AFC hierarchy.
Knox: Buccaneers (+2.5)
The Steelers looked like legitimate contenders last week against the Colts, and they should be able to rattle a Buccaneers team starting an undrafted rookie at quarterback. However, Jalon Daniels looked like a signal-caller who isn't easily flustered during last Thursday's win in Dallas.
The Bucs have had extra time to prepare for this one, and they have a defense that is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. They can make Pittsburgh one-dimensional offensively, and given the Steelers' injuries at receiver, that's a major concern.
I'd still consider backing Pittsburgh here if the Steelers hadn't looked like a lesser team on the road in 2026. They have, though, and I think there's a very real chance they'll fall to 0-3 away from Acrisure Stadium this week.
Predictions
Steelers: Davenport, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Buccaneers: Gagnon, Knox, O'Donnell
Carolina Panthers (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
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Hanford: Eagles (-1.5)
The Eagles are desperate after a heartbreaking loss to the Jaguars in London last week, and I think they'll right the ship a bit here against the Panthers coming off their bye week.
Philadelphia has been decimated by injuries, but it sounds like DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley could return in Week 6.
The offensive line has had its share of issues, but I think a veteran Eagles team shows enough pluck to keep their heads above water for at least one more week.
O'Donnell: Panthers (+1.5)
I'm done trying to figure out the Eagles. The Eagles clearly cannot figure out the Eagles. And while the Panthers' defense is a great opportunity for any offense to get right, Carolina had a bye week and then some to prepare for Philly. This Panthers team has defied the odds and shown up in tough situations since last season.
It would be easy to say, "This is the week the Eagles figure it out," injuries aside. But with Nick Sirianni's team, I'll believe it when I see it.
Give me these points in a virtual pick'em, since I'm taking Bryce Young's Panthers to win outright.
Predictions
Panthers: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Eagles: Gagnon, Hanford
Arizona Cardinals (1-4) at Los Angeles Rams (2-3)
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Davenport: Cardinals (+12.5)
This feels like a game in which a late touchdown allows the underdog to cover.
The Cardinals have already covered one large road spread this season, and a late touchdown could help them cover another against the Rams.
O'Donnell: Rams (-12.5)
This is too big a number to feel truly comfortable with. On its face, the game has backdoor cover written all over it. But the Cardinals are really stacking some bad losses with Jacoby Brissett under center despite his being serviceable enough to generate statistics in most games.
The Rams are coming off yet another brutal loss. If ever there was a time to blow the doors off an opponent, this is it. Matthew Stafford's last two games against the Cardinals: seven touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and a 22.5-point average margin of victory. The 2-3 Rams haven't really found themselves yet this year. It's time for both sides of the ball to show up, and with that comes a two-touchdown-plus cover.
Predictions
Cardinals: Davenport
Rams: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Los Angeles Chargers (0-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
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Hanford: Chiefs (-8.5)
I hate taking this many points in a divisional game, but the Chargers just look broken. Justin Herbert is making puzzling decisions, and you're starting to hear rumors of a potential sell-off at November's trade deadline.
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are historically dominant coming off a bye week, and I don't see that changing here as the Chargers lose by double digits and inexplicably fall to 0-6.
O'Donnell: Chiefs (-8.5)
The Chargers usually play the Chiefs tough. In fact, in Justin Herbert's career—11 games against Kansas City—he's 4-7, with the game decided by an average of 6.3 points per game, and the last five meetings were all one-score games. As much as I want to see this as an opportunity for Herbert to turn around the incredibly negative narrative surrounding his 0-5 start this season, I just cannot do it.
Andy Reid-coached teams are 22-5 straight up coming out of the bye week. The Chiefs have rediscovered some of the swagger we have come to expect from a Patrick Mahomes team.
I can see this game being more competitive than the final score suggests. Picture the Chargers reaching Kansas City's red zone down nine or 10 points with three to four minutes remaining, committing a costly turnover and never getting the ball back.
I'll lay the points with the Chiefs because that's how these teams are playing right now.
Predictions
Chiefs: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)
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Davenport: Bills (-5.5)
Admittedly, there is some letdown potential here, especially given Buffalo's shaky defense and a week spent on the West Coast. But it will likely take multiple Bills turnovers and an unusually sloppy performance to keep this game close.
This stretch was supposed to reveal who the Raiders really are. Two weeks in, they look improved from 2025, but they have yet to show they're a good team.
Despite concerns about its receiving corps, Buffalo's potent offense should prevent the Raiders from pulling off an upset.
Moton: Raiders (+5.5)
The Raiders no-showed on their East Coast trip last week, but that may be a blip rather than the start of a trend. Aside from the previous outing, the Raiders have scored at least 26 points.
Going back home, Las Vegas faces Buffalo's 28th-ranked scoring defense, which allows the third-most yards. Also, the Bills are coming off a hard-fought Monday night contest that went deep into overtime. Don't be surprised if they come out flat.
The Raiders should look much better at home against a poor defense to keep this game within a touchdown.
Predictions
Bills: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Raiders: Moton
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
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Davenport: Cowboys (+1.5)
This isn't an easy call. The Packers just routed the Chicago Bears, Dallas is on the road, and the Cowboys defense continues to struggle—again.
Until last week, though, the Packers defense didn't exactly look like the 1962 squad. They can't generate pressure consistently (29th in team pass rush win rate) or stop the run (127.6 yards per game allowed).
In a battle of bad defenses, give me the better offense. That's Dallas.
Gagnon: Packers (-1.5)
The Packers woke up in a big way against Chicago, and they should carry that momentum into Sunday night against an untrustworthy Dallas squad.
The Cowboys lack bite defensively and staying power on offense. Dallas might hang around, but I'm comfortable laying less than a field goal with Green Bay at Lambeau.
Predictions
Cowboys: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Packers: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton
Washington Commanders (1-3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (5-0)
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Gagnon: 49ers (-7.5)
That Week 5 late-game collapse could carry over, especially with Washington already struggling under Dan Quinn.
The Commanders' secondary looks poorly equipped to contain Brock Purdy, Mike Evans and San Francisco's offense, making this a difficult cross-country matchup for Jayden Daniels.
Knox: Commanders (+7.5)
Coming off of arguably the biggest overtime blunder in recent memory, the Commanders should probably be even bigger underdogs in this one. Washington appears to be on the verge of imploding, while the 49ers have looked and played like the best team in football through five weeks.
While most logic—along with the rest of our panel—says to back the 49ers as home favorites, I think we could see the sort of strange outcome that has been all too common through the early season.
Injuries continue to mount for San Francisco, and I think losing Deebo Samuel Sr. will have a bigger impact on the 49ers' offense than most realize. I also don't think this is quite the mismatch that records and recent results might suggest.
I do believe San Francisco will get to 6-0. However, I think the emotional hangover of stealing a win in Seattle last week, coupled with a solid Commanders run defense, can make this one closer than expected.
Predictions
Commanders: Knox
49ers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
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