Ranking the NFL's 5 True Super Bowl Contenders After Week 5

The first five weeks of the 2026 NFL season have revealed a handful of legitimate Super Bowl contenders. These teams' championship prospects are reflected in the updated FanDuel Sportsbook odds.

Although just two teams opened the year at 10-1 or shorter odds, five squads now fall into that range heading into Week 6.

Here's a look at where each of these top contenders currently stands and where they began the year on the odds list.

Team	Record	Super Bowl Odds	Preseason Odds
Los Angeles Rams	2-3	+700	+500
San Francisco 49ers	5-0	+750	+1700
Buffalo Bills	4-1	+750	+1000
Baltimore Ravens	4-1	+800	+1100
Kansas City Chiefs	4-0	+1000	+1500

Odds courtesy of FanDuel. Opening odds snapshotted from September 9, 2026.

Although long shots can win a Super Bowl, it's rare to see a team that went into the season with 11-1 odds or longer accomplish the job. The reigning champion Seattle Seahawks, who opened 2025 with 60-1 odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy, were one of just four teams since the start of the 2013 campaign to pull off the feat.

Opening as an extremely short favorite hasn't been ideal either. Over the last 30 years, the 20 teams that had 5-1 or better preseason Super Bowl odds came up short all 20 times.

With that in mind, let's rank—based on key factors such as how they've started, how they project to finish, potential to pull off a blockbuster trade before the deadline, playoff experience and injuries—the five "true" Super Bowl contenders that have emerged over the first five weeks of the 2026 NFL season.

5. Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Lamar Jackson

First-year head coach Jesse Minter has the Baltimore Ravens in strong position to compete for a Super Bowl, getting off to a scorching 4-1 start and taking control of the AFC North after ripping off a three-game winning streak.

Despite barreling towards a playoff berth, Baltimore's hopes of raising a third championship banner remain tied to the shaky health of Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens secured a clutch Week 5 victory over the surging Atlanta Falcons with their star quarterback sidelined, but there is almost no chance the club can go all the way without having the two-time NFL MVP at or near full strength.

Jackson missed Week 5 with an ankle sprain he picked up in the first half of a Week 4 win over the Tennessee Titans. The NFL Network's Ian Rapoport revealed there is a chance the signal-caller could be back for the team's impending matchup versus the Browns, but managing Jackson's long-term health should be of the utmost importance to Baltimore.

The Ravens have gone just 7-11 without Jackson in the lineup since 2019, including a 2022 Wild Card round loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. The team managed to topple the Falcons with Snoop Huntley as the starter, but it can't be expected to realistically reach the playoffs without Jackson starting a vast majority of games—let alone navigate past the elite opponents it will come up against in the postseason.

Jackson was sidelined four games and was limited in several others due to injuries last year, ultimately dooming the Ravens to their first playoff-less campaign since 2021—a season in which the star QB also missed extensive time.

While the Ravens have most of the pieces in place to go on a title run, it's becoming tougher to trust in Jackson's ability to stay healthy enough to see it through. If Jackson can shake the injury bug and get to the playoffs near 100 percent, Baltimore will be as tough an out as any. If he's hobbled or sitting out, the Ravens won't have the firepower to get past the Divisional round.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

AP Photo/John Locher

Patrick Mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to make sure last year's disappointing 6-11 campaign gets remembered as an outlier in their dynastic run. They're off to a strong start, making it to their Week 5 bye undefeated and remaining one of just three unblemished teams heading into Week 6.

Kansas City's shrewd free-agent pickup of Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation for a team that has struggled to move the ball on the ground in recent seasons.

The reigning Super Bowl MVP has already tallied 621 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage, helping balance out an offense that desperately needed to support quarterback Patrick Mahomes during his return from a season-ending ACL tear.

Despite having Walker, Mahomes and several other standouts with championship pedigrees such as Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, the Chiefs still shouldn't be considered the favorites to win a fourth Super Bowl in eight seasons.  

Kansas City has yet to be truly tested in 2026. Their victories have largely come against inferior opponents, including the still-winless Miami Dolphins. The Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders—two teams unlikely to even make the playoffs—hung tough with the Chiefs, only losing by three points apiece.

The Chiefs' real challenge will come in the back half of the season, especially between Weeks 12-16 when they square off against five consecutive potential playoff opponents in the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers.

If they can get through that stretch with a winning record, then it will be time to truly believe in this group's championship chances.

3. Los Angeles Rams (2-3)

AP Photo/Scott Strazzante

Matthew Stafford

The Los Angeles Rams have disappointed out of the gate in 2026, but there are still plenty of reasons to believe they can turn things around and deliver on their immense Super Bowl hype.

While the Rams dropped back below .500 following a 37-34 defeat to the Buffalo Bills in Week 5, the offense had one of its best performances of the campaign. The team posted a season-high point total, Matthew Stafford played at an MVP level, and a rejuvenated Puka Nacua caught 17 of his 24 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown.

The offense, which currently ranks No. 1 in total and passing yardage, shouldn't be a problem and the defense hasn't been terrible either. Even without reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett in the mix due to a knee injury, L.A. still ranks No. 3 in total defense and No. 2 in passing defense.

The main problem the Rams' defense has been contending with is the short fields opposing offenses have received as a direct result of a problematic special teams game—an issue shaping up to be the Rams' Achilles heel in 2026.

Los Angeles botched a golden opportunity to topple the Bills with an overtime field goal, allowing the pivotal kick to be blocked. It was the final mishap in yet another tough night for the special teams unit, which began the game having its opening kickoff get returned for 70 yards.

The Rams' special teams accumulated minus-110 percentage points of win probability added last year and are already at minus-104 percentage points in 2026.

Head coach Sean McVay appears intent on ironing out these issues. He admitted that "it's been a while since I've been this pissed after a game" following the loss to Buffalo and revealed that he plans to "evaluate everything" around the kicking game.

If L.A. can find a way to sort out this abysmal special teams unit, the team will be in prime position to go on a huge winning streak and set itself up to make a Super Bowl run. If it can't, the Rams will come up short once again.

2. Buffalo Bills (4-1)

AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Josh Allen

The Buffalo Bills made some sweeping offseason changes in the wake of yet another disappointing playoff defeat in the Josh Allen era.

Those brash decisions appear to be paying off, as the squad has jumped out to a 4-1 start and looks every bit like the AFC's top Super Bowl contender.

New head coach Joe Brady has the offense firing on all cylinders following his promotion from offensive coordinator. The Bills are putting up over 400 yards per game and are tied for the league lead by scoring an average of 32.8 points per game.

Josh Allen is the front-runner to take home his second NFL MVP award, tallying 1,249 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns in addition to the 239 yards and whopping eight scores he's rung up on the ground. Star running back James Cook has taken his game to another level, gashing opposing fronts for 532 yards and five touchdowns on his 95 totes.

Injuries haven't slowed Buffalo down either. Despite missing key contributors such as defensive stalwart Ed Oliver and prized offseason acquisition D.J. Moore, the Bills still managed to knock off the Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams in Week 5. The statement win came on the heels of their lone loss of the 2026 campaign, a narrow 29-26 defeat to the rival New England Patriots.

While Buffalo doesn't boast the most talented lineup on paper and still has some issues—most notably in the secondary—to iron out before the trade deadline, this team has the makeup of a Super Bowl winner.

Whether they can finally realize that potential after so many heartbreaking playoff losses remains to be seen, but it would be unwise to count the Bills out while Josh Allen and co. are playing at their current level.

1. San Francisco 49ers (5-0)

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Brock Purdy

The San Francisco 49ers are one of just two teams to open the 2026 NFL season with five victories, an incredible run made even more impressive by the sheer number of injuries the team has withstood since the start of training camp.

Despite being forced to go without a plethora of their key contributors—a growing list that includes Nick Bosa, Ricky Pearsall, Christian Kirk, De'Zhaun Stribling, Kyle Juszczyk and Deebo Samuel—for various stretches, the 49ers have managed to remain unbeaten through it all.

The rise of quarterback Brock Purdy to a legitimate NFL MVP candidate has been a driving force behind this incredible run.

Purdy has looked like the NFL's best passer this season, connecting on 98 of his 142 throws for an efficient 1,196 yards and a league-leading 13 touchdowns. He's limited his turnovers to just two interceptions, been sacked a meager three times and contributed 128 yards and a score on 25 carries.

The defense has largely been doing its job as well. San Francisco ranks No. 3 in scoring defense and boasts a top-10 passing, rushing and total defense. These figure to improve as the team gets Bosa and other contributors on that side of the football back in the coming weeks.

These Niners are clearly motivated after being embarrassed in last year's playoffs, exacting their revenge against the Seattle Seahawks with a hard-fought 32-29 victory over their NFC West rivals. The win gives them a major leg up in the divisional race and has them trending toward earning the No. 1 seed in the conference.

After a number of close calls during Kyle Shanahan's tenure as head coach—including two NFC Championship Game defeats and a pair of Super Bowl losses since the start of the 2019 season—San Francisco is a genuine threat to break through and capture its first Lombardi Trophy in over three decades.