Predicting 2026 NFL Award Winners and Top Darkhorse Candidates After Week 5

With most of Week 5 in the books, we have enough of a sample size to discuss front-runners and dark-horse candidates for NFL Honors awards. 

Of course, players on winning teams will get most of the mentions, but this past Sunday, an edge-rusher on a 2-3 club made a strong case to lead the Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates.

These projections will change as the year progresses, but let's take an early look at the top-performing players and coaches leading teams to strong starts this season.

League MVP: QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Kelley L. Cox

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13)

After Week 5, Brock Purdy leads the NFL with 13 touchdown passes and an 89.2 QBR. 

In the 49ers' competitive matchups, Purdy played at a high level. He threw for two touchdowns without an interception against the Denver Broncos in Week 4. This past Sunday, against the Seattle Seahawks, Purdy turned the ball over, but he engineered two go-ahead scoring drives in the fourth quarter, one for a touchdown and another for a field goal.

Also, keep in mind that the 49ers have lost multiple wide receivers to injuries, including Deebo Samuel Sr., who suffered a hamstring injury in the second half of the previous game. Mike Evans has also been battling a rib injury.

Yet Purdy is still one of the league's top passers and deserves recognition for his numbers despite an undermanned receiving corps.

Dark-Horse Candidate: QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is off to a strong start, throwing for 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. He's improved his efficiency, completing a career-high 67.1 percent of his passes, and is on pace for a season-high 30 touchdown passes. Following Week 5, FanDuel has listed him fourth among MVP candidates with +900 odds.

Offensive Player of the Year: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (0)

Jahmyr Gibbs is the focal point of the No. 1-scoring offense with a league-leading 747 scrimmage yards and nine total touchdowns. He's coming off a season-high 207 scrimmage yards against the Arizona Cardinals and looks to be well on his way to his first All-Pro season.

This past offseason, the Detroit Lions traded running back David Montgomery to the Houston Texans, breaking up his Sonic-and-Knuckles connection with Gibbs. Head coach Dan Campbell told reporters that the latter would be the team's bell cow running back, and it's panned out, with backup tailback Isiah Pacheco on injured reserve.

The Lions have fully unleashed Gibbs, and he's posting monster stat lines as their workhorse running back.

Dark-Horse Candidate: WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Without Josh Jacobs, who's on the commissioner's exempt list, the Packers have leaned heavily on their aerial attack, ranking 10th in pass attempts and last in total carries. As a result, Christian Watson has emerged as a big-time playmaker, catching a team-leading 26 passes for 474 yards and six touchdowns, ranking fifth and second leaguewide in the latter two categories.

Wideout Jayden Reed suffered a season-ending neck injury in Week 2, thinning the Packers' receiving corps. Watson has absorbed more targets and has topped 142 receiving yards in two games, scoring two touchdowns in each.

Defensive Player of the Year: EDGE Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans

AP Photo/John Amis

Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr.

The Houston Texans defense isn't as dominant as last year's unit, but Will Anderson Jr. remains an elite pass-rusher and disruptor off the edge. He leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. 

As the 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year, two-time Pro Bowler and 2025 first-team All-Pro, Anderson has established himself as a premier edge-rusher. At his current rate of production, he could join the ranks of Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt as a Defensive Player of the Year winner.

Dark-Horse Candidate: EDGE Dallas Turner, Minnesota Vikings

Someone must represent the Vikings' No. 1-ranked scoring defense. While we can make the case for cornerback Byron Murphy Jr., who has five pass breakups and three interceptions for the No. 3 pass defense, Dallas Turner gets the nod as he continues to blossom into a top-tier pass-rusher.

Turner is on pace to shatter his career highs of eight sacks and 24 pressures from last season. He's recorded 5.5 sacks and 22 pressures in five games. The Vikings are headed into a Week 6 bye, so Turner will fall in total counting stat categories, but he's someone to keep an eye on if Minnesota's defense continues to shut down opponents.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: WR Denzel Boston, Cleveland Browns

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Cleveland Browns wide receiver Denzel Boston (12)

As one of the biggest surprises early in the season, the Cleveland Browns are 3-2 with a young core. Rookie second-rounder Denzel Boston is already a rising star in the Browns' youth movement, and he's the clear-cut top receiver in Cleveland's passing offense.

Boston has caught 16 passes for 330 yards and three touchdowns. At 6'4", 215 pounds, he's an imposing playmaker who can match up against physical defensive backs and box out defenders in the red zone. Boston went seventh among receivers in this year's class, but he's the most productive through five weeks.

Dark-Horse Candidate: WR Antonio Williams, Washington Commanders

Antonio Williams hasn't garnered much buzz, but he's third among rookie wideouts with 155 receiving yards and scored a touchdown in his regular-season debut. 

Williams is third on Washington's receiver depth chart, but Terry McLaurin (31) and Stefon Diggs (32) have each missed one game. As older receivers, they could miss more time as the year progresses. If so, Williams could emerge as a starting receiver in a solid role.

The Commanders' 30th-ranked scoring defense will force them to throw a lot, which may inflate their receivers' numbers. Even in a complementary role, Williams' stats could look impressive in a pass-heavy offense.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: EDGE David Bailey, New York Jets

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

New York Jets linebacker David Bailey (31)

In Week 5, David Bailey had a breakout game, registering seven tackles (five solo) and three sacks. According to Next Gen Stats, he tied 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse for the most pressures—nine—in a single game.

Bailey leads all rookies and the Jets with five sacks and should reach double digits for the season. Regardless of how Gang Green's season pans out, he should be the front-runner for this award. The Texas Tech product's impact on passing and rushing downs stands out.

Dark-Horse Candidate: CB Hezekiah Masses, Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders may have a late-round gem in Hezekiah Masses. The rookie fifth-rounder capitalized on an opportunity when 2025 third-rounder Darien Porter sat out with an injury in Week 2.

In Porter's absence, Masses recorded two interceptions in the Raiders' win over the Los Angeles Chargers and has kept the starting job. He leads the rookie class with three interceptions and six pass breakups. That said, Masses must rebound from a rough Week 5 outing in New England.

Comeback Player of the Year: QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/John Locher

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15)

With running back Kenneth Walker III in the fold, the Kansas City Chiefs don't need Patrick Mahomes to carry the offense, but he's still efficient from the pocket, throwing for nine touchdowns and two interceptions with a 64.1 percent completion rate.

In his first game back from a torn ACL, Mahomes signaled that he's healthy with a 15-yard rushing touchdown in the 2026 season opener against the Denver Broncos. Since Week 1, he's logged only five rush attempts, though the two-time first-team All-Pro leads the ninth-ranked passing attack.

Dark-Horse Candidate: QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are 2-3, but they're a much better team when Michael Penix Jr. starts and finishes games. After an 0-2 start with journeyman Cooper Rush and undrafted rookie Jack Strand under center, the Falcons won consecutive outings with Penix, blowing out the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints by 21-plus points in road games.

Unfortunately, Penix didn't finish this past Sunday's game with the Baltimore Ravens because of a rib injury. On a positive note, The Athletic's Jonathan Jones reported there's "optimism" that the Falcons signal-caller could play in Week 6 against the Chicago Bears.

In three games, Penix has thrown for 719 yards, three touchdowns and an interception with a 67.5 percent completion rate.

Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Scot Tucker

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan

Somehow, Kyle Shanahan has never won Associated Press Coach of the Year, but he may finally get the award after this season. 

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0, and they've obliterated three of their opponents, including the Los Angeles Rams, who entered the season as a popular Super Bowl favorite. Don't let the 36-30 final score in their Week 3 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals fool you. The Cardinals racked up points in garbage time. Though the 49ers had a competitive battle with the Denver Broncos in Week 4, they still won by 10.

This past Sunday, San Francico knocked off the reigning champions to take the lead spot in the NFC West. 

Keep in mind that the 49ers are doing this without five-time Pro Bowl pass-rusher Nick Bosa and a wide receiver corps decimated with injuries. Shanahan has been a top-tier head coach for a decade, and he may get well-deserved recognition if the 49ers stay atop the standings.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars don't garner a ton of media attention. They have back-to-back games in London, which has kept them out of the headlines. 

That said, if not for a Week 2 fourth-quarter letdown against the Broncos, Jacksonville would be undefeated. Jacksonville led for most of that game and allowed two touchdown drives within 12 minutes of regulation.

Still, the Jaguars are one of the league's best teams with the 12th-ranked scoring attack and a defense giving up the second-fewest points. If Liam Coen leads the club to back-to-back AFC South titles, he deserves a mention for Coach of the Year.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.