MLB Playoffs 2026 ALCS, NLCS Bracket Picks and Predictions
Welcome, everyone, to the final four of the 2026 MLB playoffs. Otherwise known as the League Championship Series. Otherwise known as the doorstep to the World Series.
In the rematch between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS, David is arguably the favorite over Goliath this time. The Brewers are cheaper my several orders of magnitude. Yet they won a league-best 103 games this year, making them the top threat to the Dodgers' shot at a rare three-peat.
It's the Cleveland Guardians vs. the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS, a testament to two of the best-run teams in Major League Baseball. Both have been to the World Series in the last decade, yet their respective championship droughts add up to 105 years.
So, what happens next in these to best-of-seven series?
Will the World Series be a small-market extravaganza between the Rays and Brewers? How about a 2020 grudge match between the Dodgers and Rays? Guardians and Brewers? Guardians and Dodgers?
Let's see what we can see in the form of key matchups, storylines and X-factors for each series, and then make some predictions.
ALCS Schedule
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All Games on TBS/HBO Max
Game 1 (Monday, Oct. 12): Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 2 (Tuesday, Oct. 13): Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 3 (Thursday, Oct. 15): Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 6:00 p.m. ET
Game 4 (Friday, Oct. 16): Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 6:00 p.m. ET
Game 5 (Saturday, Oct. 17)*: Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 6 (Monday, Oct. 19)*: Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 5:00 p.m. ET
Game 7 (Tuesday, Oct. 20)*: Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 8:00 p.m. ET
*If necessary
ALCS Key Matchups and Biggest Storyline
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Drew Rasmussen vs. Gavin Williams
It's not a given that we'll see these two face off against each other during the ALCS. Williams just pitched the Guardians over the Chicago White Sox in Game 5 of the ALDS on Saturday. Rasmussen last pitched on October 3, so he's sure to have the ball for the Rays in ALCS Game 1 on Monday.
Even so, these two right arms will rightfully be in the spotlight after what each did in the ALDS. Rasmussen's only start against the New York Yankees was an eight-inning, 10-strikeout gem. Williams tallied 11.2 innings against the White Sox and fanned 24 batters, the second-most all-time for a single Division Series.
Jo Adell vs. the Rays
Adell has only played 24 games against the Rays in his career, which is about the kind of sample size you'd expect from a guy who has thus far spent his time in the AL West and AL Central.
In the last four seasons, though, Adell's 20 games against the Rays have yielded seven home runs and a .994 OPS. Somehow, some way, he's had their number.
Rays Baserunners vs. Guardians Catchers
The Rays like to run. Like, a lot. They stole 164 bases during the regular season, two more than the Brewers for the most of any team to qualify for this year's playoff field.
The Guardians only got a 17 CS% from their catchers, next to a league average of 23 percent. Yet since Patrick Bailey (32.1 CS%) was much better than Austin Hedges (6.7 CS%), they do have an ace up their sleeve if they want to make neutralizing the Rays' running game a priority.
Rays Hitters vs. Guardians Relievers
Guardians relievers were downright nasty during the regular season, posting a collective 26.5 K% that led all bullpens. There was more where that came from during the DS against the White Sox, with Cleveland relievers racking up a 36.4 K%.
Even for a team that makes as much contact as the Rays, facing this bullpen is a tall order. They also middle-of-the-pack against relievers in general this year, ranking 14 with a .713 OPS.
The Biggest Storyline: Do the Guardians Have an Upset in Them?
Truth be told, the Guardians are probably better suited to knock off the Rays than the Yankees ever were.
The Rays play a style of clean, smart baseball that just isn't at all like the baseball that the Yankees play, and that was the latter's undoing in the ALDS. The Guardians are much more of a Rays-style team, particularly in the sense that they play good defense and run the bases well.
Yet when it comes down to it, the Rays won 98 games in arguably baseball's best division and the Guardians won just 85 games in one of baseball's weakest divisions. Even a match of like-minded teams can still be a mismatch.
ALCS Biggest X-Factors
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Home Warriors vs. Road Warriors
At 55-26, the Rays were by far the best home team in the American League during the regular season. Yet at 44-37, the Guardians pulled off the impressive feat of being a better team on the road than they were at home.
So far, both clubs are sticking to the script. The Rays won both their games at Tropicana Field in the DS. Likewise, the Guardians won both their games away from Progressive Field in the DS.
Where's the Guardians' Help for José Ramírez?
The Guardians badly needed J-Ram to show up in the ALDS, and he did in a big way. After carrying over the silence that pervaded much of his regular season in Games 1, 2 and 3, he homered in Games 4 and 5 to rally his team over the White Sox.
Yet the Guardians only got one other homer in the series, a pinch-hit shot by Patrick Bailey in Game 4. Whether it's Jo Adell or someone else, Cleveland may not be so lucky to survive if another power bat doesn't arise to help out Ramírez.
Will Junior Caminero Show Up?
On paper, Caminero will be the best hitter on either side in this series. He's topped 40 home runs in each of the last two seasons, with this year also seeing him up his OBP by 49 points relative to 2025.
He has, however, cooled off of late. His .772 OPS in September was his lowest for any month all season, and he was 3-for-10 without a homer in the ALDS against the Yankees.
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ALCS Prediction
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The Pick: Rays in 6
The only forecast one feels truly comfortable making for the ALCS is that it is likely to be a low-scoring series.
Neither the Guardians nor the Rays have a high-powered offense, and literally so if we're specifically talking about home runs. The Rays hit 169 home runs this year. The Guardians, 162. Both clubs more so thrived on pitching, with each finishing the season with an ERA in the 3.70 range.
Yet if it's ultimately a question of which team can do more on the margins, the right answer simply has to be the Rays.
They're not going to give Guardians hitters any extra outs on defense, and they're going to take as many feet as they can on the basepaths. In what figures to be more of a small-ball style of series than most in these times, it's these things that will land the Rays in their third ever World Series.
NLCS Schedule
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All Games on FOX/FS1/FOX One
Game 1 (Sunday, Oct. 11): Los Angeles at Milwaukee, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 2 (Monday, Oct. 12): Los Angeles at Milwaukee, 5:00 p.m. ET
Game 3 (Wednesday, Oct. 14): Milwaukee at Los Angeles, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 4 (Thursday, Oct. 15): Milwaukee at Los Angeles, 9:00 p.m. ET
Game 5 (Friday, Oct. 16)*: Milwaukee at Los Angeles, 9:00 p.m. ET
Game 6 (Sunday, Oct. 18)*: Los Angeles at Milwaukee, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 7 (Monday, Oct. 19)*: Los Angeles at Milwaukee, 8:00 p.m. ET
*If necessary
NLCS Key Matchups and Biggest Storyline
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William Contreras vs. Dodgers Pitchers
Milwaukee's catcher has had it out for Dodgers pitchers over the last three seasons, with 18 games yielding five home runs, 11 RBI and a .895 OPS. He had two games against this year in which he had multiple hits and a home run, which isn't bad for just a six-game sample size.
Perhaps more to the point, he's coming into the NLCS hot. While the spotlight was more so on Jackson Chourio, Contreras was 6-for-16 with two homers in the NLDS against the San Diego Padres.
Will Smith vs. Brewers Pitchers
We swear we're not doing a bit by turning the page from Milwaukee's catcher just to focus on LA's catcher. Smith has likewise been a pain in the Brewers' butt in recent seasons, with seven homers and 12 RBI against them in 17 games dating back to 2023.
Unlike Contreras, Smith was quiet in the Dodgers' NLDS against the Atlanta Braves, going 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts. With the rest of the lineup looking slightly fritzy, him living up to his recent Brewers domination would be huge.
Brewers' Small Power vs. Dodgers' Big Power
The Brewers barely out-homered the Padres in an NLDS that ultimately wasn't really about homers. They had just three to San Diego's two, for which it helped that Garrett Mitchell robbed one from Manny Machado in the clincher.
The Dodgers are going to be more of a challenge in this respect. Whereas the Padres out-homered Milwaukee by 29 during the regular season, the Dodgers bested them by 50 in the home run column.
Dodgers Hitters vs. Brewers' Heat
Milwaukee hurlers threw 64 pitches of at least 100 mph in the NLDS, the most of any team for the round. And it wasn't all Jacob Misiorowski, as Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Antonio Senzatela got in on it, too.
During the regular season, the Dodgers hit 100 mph better than most. Yet we're still only talking a .230 average, which isn't so much an advantage as not-a-weakness.
The Biggest Storyline: Is Revenge on Offer?
The Brewers and Dodgers first met in the playoffs for the 2018 NLCS, which saw the two clubs split the first six games. Ever since then, the Dodgers have won seven straight against Milwaukee in the postseason.
The freshest wound for the Brewers is also the big one. They looked totally outmatched in last year's NLCS, scoring just one run in all four games as they were swept. Shohei Ohtani might as well have literally kicked them out of October.
The Brewers surely want revenge. The Dodgers surely want a three-peat. Only one team can get what it wants.
NLCS X-Factors
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Home Warriors vs. Road Warriors
No, this is not a copy-and-paste error. The Brewers went 55-26 at American Family Field, the best home record in MLB. The Dodgers went 49-32 away from Dodger Stadium, the best road record in MLB.
This is more like poetry for Guardians-Rays in that it rhymes, including with this part: Just as Milwaukee has yet to lose at home in these playoffs, the Dodgers have yet to lose on the road.
Will Shohei Ohtani Snap Out of It?
Shohei, are you there? Can you hear us? At least blink if you plan on doing something in the NLCS.
Apologies for the snark, but it is wild how much of a non-factor Ohtani has been for the last few weeks. He hasn't homered since August 18, and he was only 2-for-13 with two singles in the NLDS. He's nominally healthy, but he just isn't hitting like he is.
Can the Brewers' Bullpen Keep It Up?
How good were Brewers relievers in the NLDS? Well, they recorded all three of the team's wins and allowed just three runs in 19.0 innings.
That was with just 16 strikeouts, against 11 hits and eight walks plus near-homers by Manny Machado and Ty France. So yeah, maybe a bit of luck was involved. But if it continues, just ask the Brewers if they care.
NLCS Prediction
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The Pick: Brewers in 4
This was the same pick I made going into the Division Series round, you see. If you admire nothing else about this pick, please admire my willingness to stick to my guns.
It is an admittedly irrational pick on account of how A) the Dodgers are so much more powerful than the Brewers and B) arguably at least as good on the mound. Even if they lose the series, the over/under on how many games they'll win is around 2.5.
There's nonetheless a decent chance that this ends up being a low-scoring series, in which case the Brewers will have multiple advantages. Notably, they run the bases and field the ball better than the Dodgers do. They make things happen, and stop things from happening to them.
Also, as I said the last time: When making predictions, sometimes it's better to try to be interesting than to try to be right.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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