NFL Exec Questions 'Blind Faith' in Arch Manning amid Debate over 2027 Draft's QB1
Amid a solid but unspectacular start to the season for Texas, Arch Manning's previous standing as the consensus No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2027 NFL draft class is being called into question.
Speaking to ESPN's Jordan Reid, one assistant general manager for an AFC team questioned the "blind faith" some have put in Manning as the top signal-caller in the upcoming draft if he leaves school.
"What's giving so many people this blind faith that there's just this monstrous ceiling with him?" the assistant GM said. "Maybe this current state is just who he really is as a prospect."
A scout for an AFC club told Reid that Manning does have "fascinating" moments within games that make him tantalizing for NFL teams:
"He'll always be graded on a different scale because of the name, but I think someone will fall in love with what he can be in a few years. I don't think he's the best in the class, but his flashes in games are fascinating and a preview of what could happen down the road."
B/R's 2027 NFL draft big board coming into the season had Manning ranked as the No. 2 quarterback behind Miami's Darian Mensah and sixth-best player overall.
In the most recent rankings update released on Sept. 22, B/R's NFL scouting department dropped Manning down to No. 17 overall. Mensah, Oregon's Dante Moore and Mississippi's Trinidad Chambliss were all ahead of him among quarterbacks.
The physical tools for Manning will be hard for NFL scouts to ignore. He has prototypical size with a listed height of 6'4" and weight of 222 pounds.
In a recent mock draft from Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports, Manning was his projected No. 1 pick because his "size, athleticism, pocket movement, and willingness to push the ball make for an intriguing package."
Reid pointed out Manning has moments when he looks routine throws look hard and vice versa, adding he has a 9.8 percent off-target rate that ranks 58th among all FBS quarterbacks.
Based on competition so far this season, Manning has had the most difficult slate of opposing defenses among the top quarterbacks.
Per opponent-adjusted efficiency, the Longhorns have faced the seventh-hardest collection of opposing defenses among FBS teams. Mensah and Miami, for comparison, sit at No. 63 in that category.
That could also be used to work against Manning because his numbers in the two highest-profile games Texas has played so far against Ohio State and Tennessee don't look great. He is 37-of-56 (66.1 percent) for 396 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
The good news for Manning is he has plenty more opportunities against high-level competition to change the narrative in his favor.
After Saturday's game against unranked Oklahoma, the Longhorns begin a run of five consecutive matchups with teams currently ranked in the top 20 of the AP poll: Florida, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU.
Manning's college trajectory has been interesting because he has taken the unique path of waiting for his turn at a single institution rather than going through the transfer portal to get on the field right away.
Last season marked Manning's first year as the full-time starter in Texas following two years as a backup. He finished 2025 with 3,163 passing yards, 399 rushing yards and accounted for 36 touchdowns in 13 games.
So far in 2026, Manning has thrown for 862 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions with a 63.5 completion percentage. Texas (4-0) has spent four consecutive weeks ranked No. 1 in the AP poll since its 24-23 win over Ohio State.
