Predicting the Outcome for Each MLB Team's Top 2026-27 Free Agent
The 2026-27 MLB offseason is marked by uncertainty, as the expiring CBA and expected lockout threaten to derail the hot stove and free agency until the situation is sorted out.
It is a relatively thin free-agent market this winter, anchored by one true superstar in Tarik Skubal, but there is plenty of secondary talent that can help reshape a contender's roster.
Ahead, we've highlighted each team's top upcoming free agent and made our best guess on whether they will re-sign with their current club or wind up elsewhere this offseason.
AL East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: SP Trevor Rogers (Age: 28)
One of the few no-doubt qualifying offer candidates on the market this winter, Rogers had a 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 169.2 innings. Given the glaring need for starting pitching, the O's can't afford to lose arguably their best arm, so re-signing him should be a top priority.
Verdict: Re-sign
Boston Red Sox: SP Sonny Gray (Age: 36)
Gray is a lock to decline his end of a $30 million mutual option in favor of a $10 million buyout. After going 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 149 strikeouts in 169.0 innings, he should have no problem finding more guaranteed money. A healthy Garrett Crochet can replace him atop the Red Sox rotation, with Payton Tolle, Ranger Suárez, Jake Bennett and Brayan Bello behind him.
Verdict: Walk
New York Yankees: RP David Bednar (Age: 31)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (137 G, 97 OPS+, 1.7 WAR) and Trent Grisham (121 G, 95 OPS+, 0.6 WAR) were the top upcoming free agents on the Yankees roster entering the season, but both had down years. Instead, Bednar (64 G, 35 SV, 2.47 ERA, 9.9 K/9) looks like the most impactful potential departure. He would be difficult to replace at the back of the Yankees bullpen.
Verdict: Re-sign
Tampa Bay Rays: SP Nick Martinez (Age: 36)
Freddy Peralta probably ends up landing the bigger contract given his age and track record, but Martinez is the team's top free agent based on this year's production. The 36-year-old went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 109 strikeouts in 180.0 innings, and both ends of his $20 million mutual option might get declined given Tampa Bay's financial limitations. The Rays don't pay for a career year at 36. They look for the next candidate to deliver one.
Verdict: Walk
Toronto Blue Jays: SP Shane Bieber (Age: 31)
Forearm fatigue sidelined Bieber until June 23. He made just 11 starts before shoulder inflammation ended his season at the end of August, but he had a 2.59 ERA over 24.1 innings in his final four starts before hitting the shelf. At 31 years old, he represents a quality buy-low target, but the Blue Jays might be hunting for more stability as they rebuild their staff.
Verdict: Walk
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: RP Sean Newcomb (Age: 33)
There was some talk of Newcomb returning to a starting role after the White Sox signed him to a one-year, $4.5 million deal, but he has instead been one of their top relievers. He recorded more than three outs in 39 of his 60 appearances, posting a 3.09 ERA in 90.1 innings. His ability to chew up innings and fill multiple roles on the staff is valuable enough for the White Sox to prioritize bringing him back, even if his price tag jumps.
Verdict: Re-sign
Cleveland Guardians: SP Foster Griffin (Age: 31)
After three years in the Japanese League, Griffin went 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 129.1 innings with the Nationals before he was traded to the Guardians at the deadline in exchange for four prospects. He had a 5.19 ERA in nine starts after coming to Cleveland. With Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo returning to anchor the staff, he is a safe bet to depart.
Verdict: Walk
Detroit Tigers: 2B Gleyber Torres (Age: 29)
Torres tallied 5.0 WAR in 241 games in Detroit. He returned on a qualifying offer last winter, but the club has potential in-house replacements this time around. Hao-Yu Lee (114 G, 107 OPS+, 31 XBH, 1.0 WAR) put together a strong rookie season, while Max Anderson (108 G, .302 BA, .863 OPS at Triple-A) is knocking on the door. Plugging them in at second base would allow the front office to focus on rebuilding the rotation.
Verdict: Walk
Kansas City Royals: IF Jonathan India (Age: 29)
India played just 17 games before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. It has been a nagging issue throughout his career. He had a 105 OPS+ and 1.7 WAR in 151 games during his final season with the Reds in 2024. While he will likely have to settle for a minor league deal, his age and versatility will help drive interest.
Verdict: Walk
Minnesota Twins: C Ryan Jeffers (Age: 29)
The Twins held on to Jeffers at the trade deadline. He posted a 127 OPS+ with 35 extra-base hits, 14 home runs and 2.8 WAR as one of the most productive backstops in baseball. The Twins used the No. 3 overall pick in the 2026 draft on catcher Vahn Lackey. He is expected to move quickly through the minors, but Jeffers could be the perfect veteran bridge on a two- or three-year deal.
Verdict: Re-sign
AL West
3 of 6
Athletics: C Jonah Heim (Age: 31)
With Shea Langeliers limited by a knee injury, Heim was acquired from the Braves for cash considerations in May. He ended up starting 58 games behind the plate for the Athletics, hitting .201/.255/.361 with 15 doubles, 12 home runs and 35 RBI in 345 plate appearances. The former All-Star and Gold Glove winner will have a better chance at playing time elsewhere in 2027 with Langeliers back healthy.
Verdict: Walk
Houston Astros: RP Bryan Abreu (Age: 29)
Even in what was statistically the worst season of his career, Abreu still posted a 3.73 ERA with nine saves and 16 holds in 66 appearances. His 29.9 percent strikeout rate was still elite, but it was accompanied by a 15.3 percent walk rate. A multi-year deal awaits from a contender confident it can dial in his command, while Miguel Ullola gives Houston a potential replacement in high-leverage spots.
Verdict: Walk
Los Angeles Angels: IF Adam Frazier (Age: 34)
The Angels are thin on notable free agents, with veterans Travis d'Arnaud and Yoán Moncada coming off seasons where they were a non-factor. Frazier at least still had a little something in the tank, posting a .240/.315/.349 line and 0.4 WAR in 66 games after signing a minor league deal.
Verdict: Walk
Seattle Mariners: OF Randy Arozarena (Age: 31)
Arozarena is one of the few players on the market capable of reeling in a $100 million payday. That will push Seattle's financial limits, but can they afford to let him walk? The Mariners were 28th in the majors in runs scored. Arozarena led the team in OPS+ (148), hits (161), home runs (26), RBI (79), and WAR (5.7). Pay the man!
Verdict: Re-sign
Texas Rangers: RP Tyler Alexander (Age: 32)
The Rangers did an excellent job assembling a quality bullpen. Alexander was a significant piece of the puzzle after inking a one-year, $1.125 million deal. The southpaw logged a 3.70 ERA with four saves and 14 holds in 75 appearances. His 49.5 percent groundball rate was a career high as he leaned more heavily on his sinker and changeup. His career renaissance should create some mutual interest in a reunion.
Verdict: Re-sign
NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: SP Tyler Mahle (Age: 32)
Mahle was as impactful as any deadline pickup, posting a 1.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 54.1 innings over nine starts after he was acquired from the Giants. Then, he tossed seven strong innings against the Phillies in the Wild Card Series. Even if Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach are back next year, Mahle would be a great stabilizing presence in the rotation.
Verdict: Re-sign
Miami Marlins: None
Closer Pete Fairbanks is expected to miss a significant portion of the 2027 season recovering from thoracic outlet surgery. He struggled to a 6.31 ERA in 41.1 innings before his season ended prematurely. He is the only departing free agent on the Miami roster. Fairbanks will likely need to throw for scouts and prove he's healthy before landing a new contract.
New York Mets: None
The Mets did a good job offloading their upcoming free agents at the deadline, leaving Bo Bichette's future as the only real discussion point in the departing free agent conversation. Given his lackluster season, the expectation is that Bichette will opt into his $42 million salary for 2027, knowing he can opt out again next winter ahead of the final year of his deal.
Philadelphia Phillies: IF Luis Arraez
Arraez hit .310/.346/.419 for a 113 OPS+ while also proving he can play a capable second base (1,275.1 INN, -4 DRS, 12 OAA), which significantly limited his market a year ago. Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa are also free agents, so the Phillies have some decisions to make retooling their infield, but a third baseman or outfielder is a cleaner roster fit if they spend on a bat.
Verdict: Walk
Washington Nationals: None
The Nationals released Miles Mikolas and Trevor Williams in August, leaving the roster without any notable free agents. The only players on the books for the 2027 season are Keibert Ruiz and Cade Cavalli, giving the Nationals significant flexibility in building next year's roster, but there are no decisions to make regarding in-house free agents.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: OF Seiya Suzuki (Age: 32)
No team has more outgoing talent than the Cubs, with Suzuki, Ian Happ, Michael Conforto and Tyrone Taylor all potentially leaving from the outfield contingent, while the entire starting rotation of Shota Imanaga, Kevin Gausman, David Peterson, Matthew Boyd (mutual option) and Clay Holmes (player option) is also potentially out the door.
With a 131 OPS+ and 26 home runs in a 5.1-WAR season, Suzuki looks like the hardest to replace, given the lack of impact bats on the market. Expect a reunion with one of Suzuki or Happ, although both players could stay if Happ is willing to offer up a discount to stick around.
Verdict: Re-sign
Cincinnati Reds: C Tyler Stephenson (Age: 30)
Stephenson has averaged 18 home runs and 73 RBI per 162 games during his time in the big leagues. He logged a 101 OPS+ with 22 doubles, 15 home runs and 54 RBI in a 2.5-WAR season in 2026. The Reds can go with Jose Trevino as the primary catcher next season, ideally bridging the gap until top prospect Alfredo Duno arrives.
Verdict: Walk
Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Jake Bauers (Age: 31)
With a modest $2.7 million salary in 2026, Bauers produced a 140 OPS+ with 22 doubles, 26 home runs, 86 RBI and 3.3 WAR in the middle of the Milwaukee lineup. That production will be tough to replace, but after carrying a payroll under $150 million this season, the Brewers will likely let someone else pay for his career year.
Verdict: Walk
Pittsburgh Pirates: 2B Brandon Lowe (Age: 32)
The good news is that the Pirates are starting to spend. They handed out the largest free agency deal in franchise history last winter. The bad news is that record-setting deal was a two-year, $29 million contract for Ryan O'Hearn. It's likely going to cost $20 million annually and at least three years to re-sign Lowe, but he was instrumental in the club's offensive turnaround, posting a 121 OPS+ with 35 home runs, 96 RBI and 5.4 WAR. There is reportedly mutual interest in a reunion, but it will take uncharted spending.
Verdict: Re-sign
St. Louis Cardinals: None
The Cardinals traded away Dustin May and JoJo Romero at the deadline, leaving the roster without a notable upcoming free agent. They do have a $6 million club option on reliever Ryne Stanek, which will likely be declined as the club continues to focus on building for the future.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: SP Michael Soroka (Age: 29)
Given his age and 2026 production (21 GS, 3.41 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 114 K, 116.0 IP), Soroka quietly pitched his way to being one of the better second-tier starters on the market this winter. That should make declining his end of a $10 million mutual option an easy decision. While the D-backs have every reason to pursue a reunion, there will be significant interest elsewhere from contenders.
Verdict: Walk
Colorado Rockies: SP Kyle Freeland (Age: 33)
Freeland has spent his entire 10-year career with the Rockies. He leads the franchise in starts (257), innings pitched (1,395.2) and pitching WAR (18.9). He served up a 6.69 ERA in 135.1 innings in 2026, backed by a slightly less terrible 5.09 FIP. The Rockies need innings badly enough to pursue a reunion and hope for a bounce back.
Verdict: Re-sign
Los Angeles Dodgers: SP Tarik Skubal (Age: 29)
With a price tag expected to push toward $400 million, there is a finite number of teams capable of signing Skubal. The Dodgers are right at the top of that list. The Mets have the money and the need, but another year of irrelevance won't make it any easier to attract elite talent. The imminent lockout and new CBA are obviously a major unknown, but for now the Dodgers have to be viewed as the favorites to lock up the two-time Cy Young winner.
Verdict: Re-sign
San Diego Padres: SP Michael King (Age: 31)
King can opt out of the final two years and $58 million of his contract this winter. He almost certainly will since he would immediately slot in as the No. 2 starter on the market behind Tarik Skubal. The Padres also have Adrian Morejón, Ty France, Robbie Ray, Casey Mize and Jason Adam as free agents, so they will have multiple roster holes to fill, but retaining King as the staff ace should be their top priority.
Verdict: Re-sign
San Francisco Giants: RP JT Brubaker (Age: 32)
Brubaker made 52 starts for the Pirates in 2021 and 2022 before arm issues derailed his career, but he returned as a solid bullpen arm for the Giants this year, logging a 3.58 ERA in 60.1 innings over 41 appearances. It will be interesting to see if he gets any nibbles as a low-cost rotation candidate this offseason. He will likely test the open market.
Verdict: Walk
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