Every MLB Team's Biggest Surprise and Disappointment in 2026

Labeling an MLB player's season as a surprise or a disappointment is all about production relative to expectations.

A 30-year-old journeyman making a bigger-than-expected impact can be the biggest surprise on a roster, even if he wasn't the brightest star or player who received significant national attention.

On the flip side, a disappointing performance means legitimate expectations were not met, specifically by a player who has proved capable of a higher level of production in the past.

With the regular season completed, we've identified the biggest surprise and biggest disappointment for every MLB team in 2026.

Note: All stats reflect players' production with the team they are representing only.

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Nolan Arenado

Biggest Surprise: 3B Nolan Arenado

Stats: 152 G, 122 OPS+, .255/.331/.475, 56 XBH (30 HR), 86 RBI
WAR: 3.4

The Cardinals chipped in $31 million of the $42 million remaining on Arenado's contract to facilitate his trade to the D-backs in January, which gives a good indication of where expectations were at entering the 2026 season. The 35-year-old turned in his first 30-homer season since 2022, a year after logging a career-worst 89 OPS+ and 1.3 WAR in 107 games.

Biggest Disappointment: SP Zac Gallen

Stats: 20 GS, 3-9, 6.07 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 64 K, 105.1 IP
WAR: -1.7

After a disappointing contract year in 2025 that ended with a solid stretch of starts, Gallen returned to the D-backs on a one-year, $22.025 million deal after rejecting a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason. That means not only did they pay a steep price for his ugly 6.07 ERA, but they also gave up the opportunity to secure an additional draft pick if he signed elsewhere.

Athletics

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Zack Gelof

Biggest Surprise: IF/OF Zack Gelof

Stats: 111 G, 116 OPS+, .256/.322/.475, 40 XBH (22 HR), 16 SB
WAR: 3.5

Gelof looked like a long-term building block when he racked up 2.5 WAR over 69 games as a rookie in 2023, but he followed that up with a .211 average and AL-leading 188 strikeouts the following year before an injury-plagued 2025 campaign. He started the 2026 season at Triple-A, but ended it as one of the few bright spots on the roster, alongside right-hander J.T. Ginn, who also deserves a mention here.

Biggest Disappointment: SP Jeffrey Springs

Stats: 29 GS, 4-14, 6.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 112 K, 142.2 IP
WAR: -0.5

With a solid track record of mid-level production, including a 4.11 ERA and 105 ERA+ over 171 innings in 2025, Springs looked like one of the few stable arms on the Athletics staff and earned the Opening Day start. With a 6.18 ERA, similarly rough 6.02 FIP and an AL-leading 35 home runs allowed, his season devolved into a disaster.

Atlanta Braves

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Martín Pérez

Biggest Surprise: SP Martín Pérez

Stats: 26 GS, 9-9, 3.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 102 K, 142.0 IP
WAR: 2.9

The Braves signed Pérez to a minor league deal during the offseason and even floated him through a DFA/re-signing stretch before he settled in as one of the most reliable starters on a banged-up staff. At a modest $3.5 million price tag, he finished second among Braves pitchers with 2.9 WAR.

Biggest Disappointment: SS Ha-Seong Kim

Stats: 51 G, 2 OPS+, .116/.219/.140, 2 XBH (0 HR), 2 SB
WAR: -0.8

The Braves re-signed Kim to a one-year, $20 million deal during the offseason to serve as the primary shortstop, but a torn tendon in his finger from falling on ice and the lingering effects of that injury ended up limiting him to 51 games. An injury-shortened season is not automatically a disappointing one, but his production was so non-existent when he did take the field it's hard not to zero in on his 2 OPS+ in 147 plate appearances.

Baltimore Orioles

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Brandon Young

Biggest Surprise: SP Brandon Young

Stats: 28 GS, 9-6, 3.56 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 133 K, 156.2 IP
WAR: 2.3

A 27-year-old with a 6.24 ERA over 57.2 career innings heading into the 2026 season, Young opened the year at Triple-A and ended as Baltimore's WAR leader among pitchers. His 4.47 FIP and modest 19.9 percent strikeout rate limit his long-term upside, but he brought some much-needed stability to the staff in 2026.

Biggest Disappointment: OF Dylan Beavers

Stats: 104 G, 93 OPS+, .228/.307/.373, 29 XBH (9 HR), 44 RBI
WAR: -0.5

After posting a 121 OPS+ with 10 extra-base hits and 1.0 WAR in 35 games in his first big league action down the stretch in 2025, Beavers was expected to be a key contributor in the Baltimore outfield. Instead, his on-base percentage cratered (.375 to .307), and poor defensive metrics (-8 DRS, -9 OAA) further drove down his overall value.

Boston Red Sox

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Sonny Gray

Biggest Surprise: SP Sonny Gray

Stats: 29 GS, 18-5, 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 149 K, 169.0 IP

WAR: 4.3

Entering his age-36 season and coming off a year where he logged a 4.28 ERA in 180.2 innings, Gray profiled as a middle-of-the-rotation innings eater when he was acquired from the Cardinals in November. Instead, he is likely headed for a top-five finish in AL Cy Young balloting, and he served as Boston's de facto ace after Garrett Crochet was sidelined.

Biggest Disappointment: OF Jarren Duran

Stats: 151 G, 76 OPS+, .207/.266/.361, 40 XBH (20 HR), 21 SB

WAR: 0.4

There have been 527 individual 20/20 seasons in MLB history, and Duran's 0.4 WAR this year is tied for 519th among them. The counting statistics still point to some offensive value, but his overall production and defensive value declined sharply. He has fallen well short of both his 9.0-WAR peak two years ago and his 4.9-WAR campaign in 2025.

Chicago Cubs

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Michael Conforto

Biggest Surprise: OF/DH Michael Conforto

Stats: 113 G, 118 OPS+, .240/.331/.469, 32 XBH (15 HR), 45 RBI
WAR: 0.7

The Cubs brought Dylan Carlson, Chas McCormick and Conforto to spring training looking to fill out the bench. A year after struggling to a .199 batting average and negative-0.7 WAR in 138 games for the Dodgers, Conforto ended up being a wildly productive part-time player, logging 314 plate appearances for a playoff contender while playing on a one-year, $2 million deal.

Shoutout to David Peterson (15 GS, 3.70 ERA, 80.1 IP), who was one of the better in-season bargain pickups across baseball.

Biggest Disappointment: SP Edward Cabrera

Stats: 15 GS, 5-5, 5.96 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 71 K, 80.0 IP
WAR: -1.4

The Cubs paid a steep price to acquire Cabrera from the Marlins during the offseason, sending a package headlined by top prospect Owen Caissie the other way in exchange for his three remaining years of club control. Coming off a 2025 season where he logged a 3.53 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 137.2 innings, his command regressed (8.3 to 10.3 BB%) and he was eventually relegated to the bullpen.

Chicago White Sox

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Tristan Peters

Biggest Surprise: OF Tristan Peters

Stats: 156 G, 116 OPS+, .265/.337/.437, 47 XBH (12 HR), 56 RBI
WAR: 3.6

Acquired from the Rays in December in exchange for cash considerations, Peters ended up playing his way onto the Opening Day roster, seizing the starting center field job and massively outplaying the departed Luis Robert Jr. in 2026. He was an All-Star and played Gold Glove-caliber defense (5 DRS, 11 OAA).

Biggest Disappointment: SP Luis Castillo

Stats: 9 G, 6 GS, 8.42 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 26 K, 31.0 IP
WAR: -0.9

The White Sox bought low on Castillo at the trade deadline hoping to add a veteran workhorse to their starting rotation for the stretch run, even if he was no longer the frontline starter he was in his prime. After serving up a 7.52 ERA in 26.1 innings over six starts, he was demoted to the bullpen and ultimately left off the Wild Card Series roster.

Cincinnati Reds

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JJ Bleday

Biggest Surprise: OF JJ Bleday

Stats: 133 G, 105 OPS+, .217/.324/.416, 43 XBH (24 HR), 58 RBI
WAR: 1.2

After being non-tendered by the Athletics to start the offseason, Bleday signed a minor league deal with the Reds and started the year at Triple-A Louisville. He was recalled on April 26 and went on to win NL Player of the Month honors in May (1.018 OPS, 17 XBH, 8 HR, 25 RBI). He also hit for the cycle on Aug. 22 against the D-backs, more than delivering on his $1.85 million salary.

Biggest Disappointment: OF Noelvi Marte

Stats: 63 G, 51 OPS+, .189/.229/.321, 13 XBH (6 HR), 15 RBI
WAR: -1.5

There is no shortage of candidates for the Reds, including a poor contract year from Brady Singer, a disappointing reunion with Eugenio Suárez and a historically awful offensive showing from Ke'Bryan Hayes. However, Marte was trending toward being a legitimate long-term piece in 2025 with a 104 OPS+ and 1.4 WAR in 90 games, so his massive step backward in his age-24 season has bigger long-term ramifications.

Cleveland Guardians

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Ángel Martínez

Biggest Surprise: OF Ángel Martínez

Stats: 114 G, 110 OPS+, .254/.290/.465, 44 XBH (18 HR), 11 SB

WAR: 1.0

After finishing with a 74 OPS+ and negative-0.7 WAR in 139 games during the 2025 season, Martínez was not even guaranteed a big league roster spot entering the 2026 season. A 106-point jump in his slugging percentage and a team-high 18 home runs qualify him as a massive surprise, even if his sub-.300 on-base percentage still left something to be desired.

Biggest Disappointment: 1B Kyle Manzardo

Stats: 102 G, 93 OPS+, .215/.306/.378, 24 XBH (13 HR), 39 RBI

WAR: 0.6

Manzardo served as the primary lineup protection for José Ramírez during the 2025 season, posting a 111 OPS+ with 27 home runs and 70 RBI in a breakout year offensively. That production regressed to the point that he was demoted to Triple-A this year, and the Guardians went with deadline pickup Nathaniel Lowe as their primary first baseman down the stretch while chasing a division title.

Colorado Rockies

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TJ Rumfield

Biggest Surprise: 1B TJ Rumfield

Stats: 155 G, 121 OPS+, .300/.390/.453, 49 XBH (16 HR), 73 RBI
WAR: 3.5

The Rockies acquired Rumfield from the Yankees in exchange for reliever Angel Chivilli in January and thrust him into a wide-open competition for the starting first base job. The 26-year-old rookie finished as the team leader in WAR (3.5), NL leader in on-base percentage (.390) and one of only seven qualified hitters with a .300 batting average.

Biggest Disappointment: SS Ezequiel Tovar

Stats: 146 G, 60 OPS+, .219/.264/.353, 36 XBH (13 HR), 44 RBI
WAR: -0.3

Fully healthy following an injury-plagued 2025 season, Tovar failed to return to his 2024 form, when he racked up 75 extra-base hits and 3.6 WAR while winning NL Gold Glove honors. His 60 OPS+ ranked dead last among the 135 hitters who qualified for the batting title, miles behind No. 134 on that list, Marcus Semien (74 OPS+).

Detroit Tigers

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Troy Melton

Biggest Surprise: SP Troy Melton

Stats: 20 GS, 8-5, 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 94 K, 114.1 IP
WAR: 2.8

Melton showed quality stuff down the stretch in 2025, but his role was unclear entering the year with Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander and Casey Mize penciled into the Detroit rotation. On the other side of injuries and trades, he was arguably the team's best pitcher, and he had a 1.86 ERA in 97 innings entering September before running out of gas down the stretch.

Biggest Disappointment: IF/OF Zach McKinstry

Stats: 129 G, 64 OPS+, .199/.288/.294, 23 XBH (4 HR), 26 RBI
WAR: 1.7

An All-Star and Silver Slugger winner in 2025 as one of the game's best utility players, McKinstry provided plenty of value with his glove while continuing to play all over the field. However, his OPS plummeted from .771 to .582, essentially turning him into a glove-only option.

Houston Astros

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Peter Lambert

Biggest Surprise: SP Peter Lambert

Stats: 29 GS, 8-10, 3.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 154 K, 155.2 IP
WAR: 3.1

After flashing some potential while navigating injuries during his time with the Rockies, Lambert put together a strong season for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in 2025. The Astros signed him to a minor league deal, which he initially opted out of before re-signing a few days later, and he ended up leading the team in innings pitched (155.2) while backing his 3.82 ERA with an equally solid 3.91 FIP.

Biggest Disappointment: SP Mike Burrows

Stats: 17 GS, 4-9, 5.99 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 75 K, 94.2 IP
WAR: -1.0

The Astros gave up two high-profile prospects in Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito to acquire Burrows in a three-team deal with the Pirates and Rays. He was demoted to Triple-A in early July after a brutal outing against the Nationals (4.1 IP, 9 H, 10 R, 7 ER) and did not return to the MLB roster.

Kansas City Royals

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Randy Dobnak

Biggest Surprise: SP Randy Dobnak

Stats: 13 GS, 3-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 49 K, 74.1 IP
WAR: 1.3

A productive member of the Twins rotation once upon a time, Dobnak did not appear in the majors in 2022 or 2023 before tossing a combined 15 innings in the big leagues in 2024 and 2025. The Royals acquired him from the Mariners in June for cash considerations, and he ended up being a useful piece of a banged up starting rotation.

Biggest Disappointment: SP Seth Lugo

Stats: 32 GS, 7-9, 5.17 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 134 K, 172.1 IP
WAR: -0.3

Two years removed from a runner-up finish in AL Cy Young balloting, Lugo served up an AL-leading 200 hits and 99 earned runs while logging just 14 quality starts in 32 outings. Opponents hit a combined .295/.352/.480 against him, and the Royals finished 16-16 in games he started.

Los Angeles Angels

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Wade Meckler

Biggest Surprise: OF Wade Meckler

Stats: 98 G, 119 OPS+, .300/.373/.387, 19 XBH (3 HR), 8 SB
WAR: 2.4

After making his MLB debut during the second half of the 2023 season, Meckler did not see the big leagues in the two years that followed, and the Angels claimed him off waivers in January. He was recalled from the minors on May 22, and needed just 98 games to finish third in WAR among Angels position players.

Biggest Disappointment: C Logan O'Hoppe

Stats: 75 G, 63 OPS+, .209/.271/.295, 12 XBH (4 HR), 23 RBI
WAR: -1.0

O'Hoppe looked like a long-term piece for the Angels during a 2.7-WAR, 20-homer season in 2024. His offense and defense both regressed in 2025, and he struggled to the point of being demoted to the minors this year before he was traded to the Rangers at the deadline.

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Edgardo Henriquez

Biggest Surprise: RP Edgardo Henriquez

Stats: 61 G, 11 HLD, 2.85 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 71 K, 60.0 IP
WAR: 0.8

With a fastball that averages 100.7 mph and a slider that has generated a 43.2 percent whiff rate, Henriquez has showcased electric stuff since his time in the minors. The surprise is that he has been such an integral part of the Dodgers' relief corps, joining Alex Vesia and Tanner Scott as one of the team's most reliable late-inning options.

Biggest Disappointment: OF Kyle Tucker

Stats: 154 G, 97 OPS+, .233/.330/.385, 44 XBH (17 HR), 12 SB
WAR: 0.7

Living up to a four-year, $240 million contract was never going to be easy, but Tucker fell short of even league-average production in his Dodgers debut. The numbers actually looked even worse before a productive final month, as he entered September with a .228/.326/.357 line and 11 home runs in 129 games.

Miami Marlins

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Otto Lopez

Biggest Surprise: SS Otto Lopez

Stats: 157 G, 122 OPS+, .305/.349/.437, 52 XBH (11 HR), 34 SB
WAR: 6.1

A breakout offensive season alongside his usual standout defense made Lopez one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball, with his 6.1 WAR behind only Kevin McGonigle (7.1) and Bobby Witt Jr. (6.7) at the position. After hitting .246/.305/.368 a year ago, he was the NL hits leader (191) and a contender for the NL batting title into the final month.

Biggest Disappointment: C Agustín Ramírez

Stats: 72 G, 91 OPS+, .235/.318/.354, 16 XBH (5 HR), 24 RBI
WAR: -0.3

Ramírez slugged 33 doubles and 21 home runs as a rookie in 2025, but his poor defense and .287 on-base percentage made him a negative-WAR player overall. A less potent start at the plate and the arrival of top catching prospect Joe Mack led to him spending much of 2026 back at Triple-A.

Milwaukee Brewers

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Jake Bauers

Biggest Surprise: 1B Jake Bauers

Stats: 144 G, 140 OPS+, .266/.389/.484, 50 XBH (26 HR), 86 RBI
WAR: 3.3

A .211/.307/.365 career hitter entering 2026, Bauers had never hit more than 12 home runs while serving mostly as a platoon player. This year's offensive outburst has been accompanied by some of the best batted-ball metrics of any hitter in baseball, and his career year lined up perfectly with his first trip to free agency this winter.

Biggest Disappointment: OF Sal Frelick

Stats: 111 G, 70 OPS+, .230/.295/.319, 22 XBH (4 HR), 7 SB
WAR: -0.5

With a 111 OPS+ and 2.9 WAR in 142 games during the 2025 season, Frelick looked like a foundational piece on the rise for the Brewers with potential for more heading into the year. Instead, he struggled mightily before suffering a torn labrum in July, and after missing a month he returned to a part-time role with Luis Lara absorbing some of his playing time in right field.

Minnesota Twins

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Taj Bradley

Biggest Surprise: SP Taj Bradley

Stats: 31 GS, 12-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 205 K, 178.1 IP

WAR: 4.4

The Twins bought low on Bradley at the 2025 trade deadline, acquiring him in exchange for Griffin Jax after he had been demoted to the minors. He was shelled in six starts after the trade (6.61 ERA, 31.1 IP), but the move paid major dividends this season as he pitched his way into the co-ace role alongside Joe Ryan. Still only 25 years old, he is controllable through 2029.

Biggest Disappointment: OF Matt Wallner

Stats: 34 G, 55 OPS+, .167/.259/.292, 7 XBH (4 HR), 10 RBI

WAR: -1.4

After posting a 112 OPS+ with 22 home runs in 104 games in 2025, Wallner was the starting right fielder and No. 5 hitter for the Twins on Opening Day. His .167 average and 39.3 percent strikeout rate earned him a demotion to the minors in mid-May, and he never returned, spending 94 games at Triple-A St. Paul.

New York Mets

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Jared Young

Biggest Surprise: 1B Jared Young

Stats: 103 G, 113 OPS+, .266/.330/.429, 29 XBH (9 HR), 39 RBI
WAR: 1.7

Young entered the 2026 season with 44 MLB games under his belt and a .200/.267/.457 batting line over 116 plate appearances. Exactly who the Mets would turn to as they looked for a Pete Alonso replacement, right? With free-agent signing Jorge Polanco sidelined for most of the year, Young played his way into regular action at first base and ended up being one of the team's most productive bats.

Biggest Disappointment: SP Freddy Peralta

Stats: 22 GS, 5-9, 4.99 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 113 K, 113.2 IP
WAR: -0.5

Acquired to front the starting rotation alongside rising ace Nolan McLean, Peralta was coming off arguably the best season of his career. In 2025, he finished 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 204 strikeouts in 176.2 innings, earning a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. The Mets ended up cutting their losses at the deadline, and he immediately righted the ship with a 3.25 ERA in 55.1 innings in Tampa Bay.

New York Yankees

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Brent Headrick

Biggest Surprise: RP Brent Headrick

Stats: 81 G, 29 HLD, 2.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 98 K, 78.1 IP
WAR: 2.6

The Yankees finished second in the majors with a 3.13 ERA from the relief corps, and Headrick was a huge part of their success. The 28-year-old had a 4.70 ERA over 32 appearances during sporadic MLB action the previous three seasons, but emerged as one of the most dominant lefty setup men in baseball.

Tip of the cap to Paul Blackburn (62 G, 11 HLD, 1.69 ERA, 85.0 IP), as the longtime starter reinvented himself as a lights-out bullpen option.

Biggest Disappointment: 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Stats: 137 G, 97 OPS+, .231/.312/.399, 38 XBH (19 HR), 41 SB
WAR: 1.7

The numbers aren't terrible at first glance, but they were a significant step backward from Chisholm after he logged a 122 OPS+ with 31 home runs, 31 steals and 4.1 WAR in 2025. The 28-year-old's regression came at a less-than-ideal time with free agency looming this winter.

Philadelphia Phillies

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Derek Hill

Biggest Surprise: OF Derek Hill

Stats: 67 G, 107 OPS+, .261/.296/.487, 12 XBH (7 HR), 6 SB

WAR: 1.4

A first-round pick in 2014 who never lived up to expectations in Detroit, Hill has bounced around a ton the last few seasons. After Adolis García suffered a season-ending injury, the Phillies acquired him from the White Sox in June. Hill ended up settling nicely into the fourth outfielder role, carving out some platoon work thanks to a .781 OPS against southpaws.

Biggest Disappointment: SS Trea Turner

Stats: 157 G, 81 OPS+, .242/.297/.378, 49 XBH (19 HR), 21 SB

WAR: -0.1

It has been an up-and-down four years in Philadelphia for Turner, but he was coming off a fantastic 2025 season where he hit .304/.355/.457 with 5.4 WAR in 141 games to win the NL batting title and finish fifth in NL MVP balloting. He started 154 games at shortstop, but the turnaround simply never came in a negative-WAR campaign.

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Mason Montgomery

Biggest Surprise: RP Mason Montgomery

Stats: 70 G, 18 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 105 K, 68.2 IP
WAR: 2.4

The Pirates acquired Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum and Montgomery from the Rays last offseason in a three-team, six-player deal that sent Mike Burrows to the Astros. Montgomery pitched to a 5.67 ERA in 57 games as a rookie in 2025, but his 12.3 K/9 spoke to the quality of his stuff. A year later, he was one of the most overpowering bullpen arms in baseball, pitching his way into the closer's role while setting a franchise record with 25 straight scoreless appearances.

Biggest Disappointment: DH Marcell Ozuna

Stats: 70 G, 67 OPS+, .203/.286/.327, 15 XBH (8 HR), 29 RBI
WAR: -1.0

Signed to add some middle-of-the-order thump, Ozuna's one-year, $10.5 million deal made him the sixth-highest-paid player on the Pirates roster. He went 2-for-39 in his first 10 games and never really recovered, and he was ultimately released on Aug. 6.

San Diego Padres

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Ty France

Biggest Surprise: 1B Ty France

Stats: 133 G, 139 OPS+, .295/.363/.502, 47 XBH (21 HR), 72 RBI
WAR: 4.5

France signed a minor league deal in February, rejoining the franchise that originally selected him in the 34th round of the 2015 draft. He played his way onto the Opening Day roster and into a regular role at first base, putting together the best season of his career in multiple categories. His 4.5 WAR trailed only Pete Alonso (4.9) and Willson Contreras (4.6) among first basemen, bolstered by his Gold Glove-caliber defense.

Biggest Disappointment: SP Casey Mize

Stats: 10 GS, 2-4, 7.46 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 25 K, 44.2 IP
WAR: -1.3

The Padres paid a steep price for a two-month rental of Mize, who had a 2.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 85 strikeouts in 86.2 innings with the Tigers prior to the trade. Expected to help solidify the top of the starting rotation, he was shelled for nine hits and eight earned runs in 3.1 innings in his Padres debut and never settled in with his new team.

San Francisco Giants

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Luis Arraez

Biggest Surprise: 2B Luis Arraez

Stats: 105 G, 127 OPS+, .324/.360/.440, 34 XBH (4 HR), 43 RBI
WAR: 3.0

The offensive production is not the major surprise here, though Arraez did improve on a 101 OPS+ during the 2025 season. The surprise was his strong defensive metrics at second base (1,275.1 INN, 12 OAA), after the Giants were the only team willing to give him a shot at being an everyday guy there during the offseason. That should help bolster his market this winter after he settled for a one-year, $12 million deal last time around.

Biggest Disappointment: OF Harrison Bader

Stats: 30 G, 54 OPS+, .170/.198/.358, 10 XBH (5 HR), 14 RBI
WAR: 0.2

For the most part, players have been given a pass from the biggest disappointments section if their season was cut short due to injury. However, the circumstances surrounding Bader's injury make him a worthy exception, and there's a very real chance he has played his final game in a Giants uniform, despite signing a two-year, $20.5 million deal last winter.

Seattle Mariners

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Emerson Hancock

Biggest Surprise: SP Emerson Hancock

Stats: 25 GS, 7-8, 3.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 126 K, 138.2 IP
WAR: 2.7

Hancock only earned a spot in Seattle's Opening Day rotation because Bryce Miller was sidelined to start the year, but he tossed six no-hit innings in his first start of the year and never relinquished his starting role. The 27-year-old had the track record as the No. 6 overall pick in the 2020 draft, but with a 4.81 ERA in 162.2 career innings entering the year he had previously looked more like organizational depth than an impact starter.

Biggest Disappointment: C Cal Raleigh

Stats: 126 G, 91 OPS+, .182/.296/.368, 38 XBH (23 HR), 69 RBI
WAR: 1.0

The numbers looked even worse for Raleigh before he slugged nine home runs in August, but he still saw his production absolutely fall off a cliff relative to his 60-homer, 7.2-WAR season in 2025. With four years left on his six-year, $105 million extension, the M's will be counting on him returning to star-level production next season.

St. Louis Cardinals

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Jordan Walker

Biggest Surprise: OF Jordan Walker

Stats: 158 G, 124 OPS+, .269/.327/.466, 62 XBH (29 HR), 102 RBI
WAR: 3.3

Despite being only 24 years old, Walker was entering a make-or-break season of sorts after hitting a combined .211/.270/.324 for a 69 OPS+ and negative-2.5 WAR over 162 games in 2024 and 2025. He stumbled down the stretch, hitting .172 with a .519 OPS in September, but he has firmly established himself as a piece to build around.

Biggest Disappointment: SP Matthew Liberatore

Stats: 31 GS, 6-14, 5.23 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 154 K, 155.0 IP
WAR: -0.6

Liberatore turned in an under-the-radar breakout season in 2025 with a 4.21 ERA in 151.2 innings, and the Cardinals handed him the ball on Opening Day. The 26-year-old had 10 starts where he allowed one or zero earned runs, so there were still flashes of his rotation anchor potential, but they were accompanied by seven starts where he served up five or more earned runs.

Tampa Bay Rays

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Bryan Baker

Biggest Surprise: RP Bryan Baker

Stats: 65 G, 41 SV, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 63 K, 62.1 IP
WAR: 2.9

After declining their club option on Pete Fairbanks last winter, the Rays entered the season without a set closer. By season's end, Baker was tied for the MLB lead with 41 saves, using a lethal fastball-changeup combination to turn in a season that should earn him Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year honors. The 31-year-old was acquired from the Orioles midway through the 2025 season.

Biggest Disappointment: RP Garrett Cleavinger

Stats: 51 G, 2 SV, 23 HLD, 4.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 54 K, 41.1 IP
WAR: -0.3

It was Cleavinger who was the breakout arm in the Tampa Bay bullpen last year when he logged a 2.35 ERA and 12.0 K/9 in 67 appearances. That even earned him a spot on Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. With two saves and 23 holds, he still filled a high-leverage role, but the end result was a significant step backward.

Texas Rangers

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Jacob Latz

Biggest Surprise: RP Jacob Latz

Stats: 58 G, 30 SV, 2.13 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 83 K, 72.0 IP
WAR: 2.6

Latz landed in the Texas bullpen after losing the No. 5 starter battle to Kumar Rocker during spring training, and by midseason he was at the All-Star Game as one of baseball's best closers. He allowed just 35 hits in 72 innings en route to a .143 opponents' batting average.

A 4.2-WAR season from Ezequiel Durán in a super-utility role has to at least be mentioned, though he has been productive in the past, making Latz's performance far more surprising.

Biggest Disappointment: OF Evan Carter

Stats: 141 G, 76 OPS+, .194/.288/.315, 26 XBH (9 HR), 17 SB
WAR: 1.9

Health was the question mark for Carter in 2024 (45 games) and 2025 (63 games), and he continued to flash star potential with a 110 OPS+ and 1.9 WAR when he was healthy a year ago. This season, he played a career-high 141 games, but was one of the least productive regulars in baseball, ranking in the 10th percentile or worse in expected average and expected slugging.

Toronto Blue Jays

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Brett Bateman

Biggest Surprise: OF Brett Bateman

Stats: 41 G, 129 OPS+, .329/.402/.424, 10 XBH (2 HR), 3 SB
WAR: 2.2

Bateman never ranked higher than the No. 30 prospect in the Cubs farm system, but he was plugged in as Toronto's starting center fielder after he was acquired in the Kevin Gausman deal, replacing fellow trade chip Daulton Varsho. His performance should be enough to secure him a starting job in 2027, especially with his defense (6 DRS, 3 OAA) providing a strong foundation.

Biggest Disappointment: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Stats: 144 G, 90 OPS+, .260/.332/.356, 34 XBH (9 HR), 57 RBI
WAR: 1.1

Signed to a 14-year, $500 million extension last year, Guerrero put together an all-time postseason performance with a .397/.494/.795 line and eight home runs in 18 games. His power completely disappeared this season en route to the worst offensive numbers of his career, and ill-advised comments regarding his contract ended his down year on a particularly sour note.

Washington Nationals

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Andrew Alvarez

Biggest Surprise: SP Andrew Alvarez

Stats: 25 G, 17 GS, 2-6, 3.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 114 K, 112.2 IP
WAR: 2.5

First used as a multi-inning reliever and then as a swingman, Alvarez eventually assumed a regular spot in the Nationals rotation in August. Over the final two months, he had a 2.78 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 55 innings. The 27-year-old rookie can fill a variety of roles going forward.

Biggest Disappointment: 3B Brady House

Stats: 95 G, 95 OPS+, .247/.313/.397, 28 XBH (10 HR), 46 RBI
WAR: 0.7

House entered the regular season with some legitimate breakout expectations after he hit .429/.444/.786 with six doubles, three home runs and 11 RBI during spring training. By May 19, he had been optioned back to Triple-A, and even at 23 years old he is quickly approaching make-or-break territory if he is going to stake his claim as the everyday third baseman.