Bleacher Report's Expert Week 4 2026 NFL Picks and Predictions

The first month of the 2026 NFL season is done, and Bleacher Report's expert crew is ready to turn the page to the October slate.

Analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton, and Brent Sobleski, along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford had a rough September, but it's a long season, which leaves plenty of time for adjustments as the panel gets a handle on this year's trends.

This week, most of the experts favor big spreads and road favorites, with one unanimous pick. They're only siding with one of the five 0-3 teams against the spread.

Looking at the standings below, there's some ground to make up, but with a strong start to October, our crew can get on the right track for a midseason run.

ATS Standings

1. Moton: 29-18-1

T-2. Davenport: 22-25-1

T-2. Gagnon: 22-25-1 

T-2. Hanford: 22-25-1

T-5. Knox: 20-27-1

T-5. Sobleski: 20-27-1

7. O'Donnell: 18-29-1

Lone Wolf Picks: 6-4

Lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday, Sept. 30, at 4 p.m. ET. Check FanDuel for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

PIT vs. CLE | IND vs. WAS | TEN vs. BAL | GB vs. TB | JAX vs. CIN | LAR vs. PHI | NE vs. BUF | NYJ vs. CHI | ARI vs. NYG | DAL vs. HOU | MIA vs. MIN | LAC vs. SEA | DEN vs. SF | KC vs. LV | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers

FanDuel Line: Steelers (-2.5)

Hanford: Browns (+2.5)

Maybe this is the jaded Steelers fan talking, but this just feels like a classic Steelers loss. Perhaps those are a thing of the bygone Mike Tomlin era, but we'll see.

Pittsburgh secured a huge win over the Bengals last week, but going into Cleveland on a short week against a Browns team growing in confidence can be a tall order.

Since 2019, the Browns are 6-1 at home against the Steelers. Behind an inspired defensive effort, I like Cleveland to win this one and somehow be the 3-1 leaders of the AFC North coming out of the game. 

Knox: Steelers (-2.5)

After three weeks, it is hard to know whether either 2-1 team is actually any good. Spencer Fano has played like a rookie, Tytus Howard has been a liability, Elgton Jenkins is injured, and Deshaun Watson has typically struggled under pressure as Cleveland's quarterback.

Contrary to what Todd Monken may wish, T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward are not retiring before Thursday night. They will force Watson into the sort of mistakes that lead to a Cleveland loss and have Browns fans calling for Shedeur Sanders before the end of the night.

Predictions

Steelers: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton

Browns: Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs. Washington Commanders (1-2)

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones

FanDuel Line: Colts (-3.5)

Gagnon: Commanders (+3.5)

I'm not giving up a hook with the Colts outside of Indianapolis, especially considering how Washington fared against Seattle in Week 3. Indy beat Houston at home last week, but that 19-17 victory was just about the ugliest win you can earn. I expect Washington's run game to control this game, leading to a Commanders victory.  

Sobleski: Colts (-3.5)

Here's the quandary: Both the Colts and Commanders produced impressive victories last weekend after 0-2 starts, yet it's difficult to believe in either of them.

Indianapolis gets the nod, because it's not relying on a backup quarterback to keep the team afloat. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones will be facing the league's second-worst pass defense, which should signal big days from Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren.  

Predictions

Colts: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Commanders: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton

Tennessee Titans (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

AP Photo/Zach Bolinger

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry

FanDuel Line: Ravens (-11.5)

Gagnon: Titans (+11.5)

The Titans' last two losses have come by a total of nine points, while the Ravens have been outscored by four in their last two games combined.

Baltimore is at home here, but those two "meh" performances didn't come on the road, either. Now it's coming off an energy-zapping trip to Brazil.

This might not be a complete trap that results in a shocking loss, but I'm not giving up double-digit points.

Moton: Ravens (-11.5)

Typically, it's wise to take the points with massive spreads, but the Titans offense isn't even good enough for a back-door cover. Meanwhile, the Ravens field the fourth-ranked scoring offense. 

This will also be Derrick Henry's first time facing his former team, and he's the focal point of the Ravens' high-scoring attack. Baltimore won't have to do much to slow down the Titans' sparkless offense. Ravens roll by at least two touchdowns.

Predictions

Titans: Davenport, Gagnon

Ravens: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love

FanDuel Line: Packers (-3.5)

Knox: Buccaneers (+3.5)

Going down to Tampa and losing to an undrafted rookie quarterback would have felt like a very Packers thing to do in past years. I don't think this Packers team is as good as those we've seen in recent years, either.

Green Bay has gone 1-7 since losing Micah Parsons to a torn ACL last season, and its one win came in overtime against the Jets. I think if the Packers manage to win this one, it won't be by much.

Moton: Packers (-3.5)

The Buccaneers scored fewer than 20 points in their last two games with Baker Mayfield under center. So, it's hard to believe they'll flip the offensive switch with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at the helm. 

The Packers had extra time to think about an embarrassing home-opening loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers' 23rd-ranked rushing attack won't bludgeon the Packers' defensive front like Bijan Robinson did last Thursday. Packers bounce back big against a winless team with a quarterback making his first start.

Predictions

Packers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell

Buccaneers: Knox,  Sobleski

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence

FanDuel Line: Bengals (-2.5)

Hanford: Bengals (-2.5)

The Bengals are finally back home after two weeks on the road and coming off a tough Week 3 loss.

The Jaguars have been great overall, led by a daunting defense, but I like Joe Burrow and Cincinnati to test them way more than the Patriots did last week.

Bengals win by three.

Sobleski: Jaguars (+2.5)

The Jaguars bounced back in Week 3 after a disappointing defeat to the Denver Broncos. Cincinnati will look to do the same after falling to the rival Pittsburgh Steelers.

However, the Bengals remain mistake-prone, as quarterback Joe Burrow stated after the loss. Cincinnati is the league's sixth-most penalized team. Conversely, Jacksonville is tied for the fewest penalties through three weeks, which gives the Jaguars an edge while also taking the points.

Predictions

Jaguars: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Bengals: Gagnon, Hanford

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford

FanDuel Line: Rams (-3)

O'Donnell: Rams (-3)

There's nothing to feel good about in picking this one.

The Eagles are licking their wounds after a Monday Night Football beatdown by journeyman QB Case Keenum and a Chicago Bears defense ripe for exploitation; the Eagles scored only seven, very questionable at best, points in the game. They're a 2-1 team that feels like it's 0-3. 

The vaunted, super-duper-Hollywood Rams are 1-2 and feel like they should be 0-3, too. After blowing a 16-point lead in Denver, and injuries aside, Sean McVay's team desperately needs to find itself.

This game will probably be a push, but I have to make a pick, and I'll back the more desperate team since it has actually shown some ability to score points this season.

Sobleski: Eagles (+3)

So, everyone else is picking the Rams. Don't count these Eagles out. Despite Philadelphia looking like the bad version from last season while playing the Case Keenum-led Bears, Nick Sirianni's group knows how to respond. The team has gone through stretches of stagnation before and tended to bounce back. 

Plus, the idea of this Rams team isn't quite as good as everyone expected should be discussed. The embarrassing loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Australia can be forgotten due to poor travel plans. But Sunday's second-half loss after holding a 16-0 halftime lead is inexcusable. Furthermore, Matthew Stafford isn't playing at an MVP level anymore.  

Predictions

Rams: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Eagles: Sobleski

New England Patriots (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-0)

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen

FanDuel Line: Bills (-6.5)

Davenport: Bills (-6.5)

This game features two teams barreling in opposite directions. The Bills have issues on defense, but the offense has been a buzzsaw. The Patriots have issues all over the place, and quarterback Drake Maye has looked overwhelmed.

New England hasn't scored more than 20 points this season and is averaging 12 points per game. Bills by double digits at home. 

Gagnon: Patriots (+6.5)

New England's offense has been a mess, but the Patriots and Bills played two very close games last season, and there is still plenty of talent and experience here.

The Patriots are in a desperate spot and should be expected to again put up a fight against their division rival. The Bills looked out of sorts against the Chargers, and only one of their three wins has come in remotely convincing fashion. This feels like a field-goal game.  

Predictions

Patriots: Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell

Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Sobleski

New York Jets (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1)

AP Photo/Melissa Tamez

Chicago Bears wide receiver Luther Burden III

FanDuel Line: Bears (-3.5)

Davenport: Jets (+3.5)

The Bears looked fantastic in Monday night's demolition of the Philadelphia Eagles, but the hook is a bridge too far for me here. The Jets have been decent offensively with Geno Smith in his second stint with the team, and he'll keep this a close one. Chicago will get the win in a close one, but Gang Green will get the cover. 

Hanford: Bears (-3.5)

Tyson Bagent should be back under center, which bodes well for a Chicago team that dominated the Eagles with Case Keenum running the show. The Jets have been more competitive than expected so far thanks to Geno Smith's solid play at QB, but their second straight road game takes its toll here. The Bears keep things rolling and move to 3-1 as they're one week closer to Caleb Williams' return. 

Predictions

Jets: Davenport, Gagnon, Sobleski

Bears: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at New York Giants (2-1)

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers

FanDuel Line: Giants (-1.5)

Hanford: Giants (-1.5)

The Giants will feel the absence of Brian Burns on defense, but I still have confidence that this is a unit that can make this game ugly enough to get a win. The Cardinals are 11-23 on the East Coast in the last two seasons. They're a team prone to games that don't always make sense and backdoor covers, but I like the Giants to make this one ugly and win by a field goal. 

O'Donnell: Cardinals (+1.5)

The John Harbaugh Giants, sans Jaxson Dart and now sans Brian Burns, are impossible to get a read on at this point. The team that won in Week 1 no longer exists. Dart (and Nabers) were injured in the Week 2 game—that team and game basically don't count. The victorious Week 3 team played a hapless Titans squad featuring too many former Giants for anyone's liking in a rain-soaked, wind-rattled mess of a game. 

The Jameis Winston experience is always an adventure, but we're truly in uncharted territory here. The Cardinals tend to hang around in games and/or storm back in garbage time, and I struggle to see any version of the Giants putting a team away right now. So, even in a virtual pick 'em, I'll take the points.  

Predictions

Cardinals: Davenport, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Giants: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton

Dallas Cowboys (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-3)

AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud

FanDuel Line: Texans (-2.5)

Davenport: Cowboys (+2.5)

After yet another 0-3 start, it's desperation time in Houston—and a potential turning point in the career of Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud.

The problem for Houston is that the Dallas offense can move the ball against just about anyone, and I just don't trust the Texans to be able to score enough points.

Houston is headed for an 0-4 start, and the criticism of Stroud's play is about to become much louder.

Moton: Texans (-2.5)

The Texans must win now, or they can probably forget about the playoffs. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers have started the season 0-4 and made the postseason. The Texans have bounced back from 0-3 starts to clinch playoff berths, but they shouldn't test a more unfavorable history.

In an early win-now situation, the Texans finally respond against one of the league's worst defenses. The Cowboys should be embarrassed by their loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Rio de Janeiro last week, but that shame won't fix the holes in their defense or their subpar defensive play-calling. Also, it would be a quick turnaround for newly acquired cornerback Joey Porter Jr.

Wide receiver Nico Collins, who practiced on Wednesday, returns to propel the Texans to a season-saving win.

Predictions

Cowboys: Davenport, Sobleski

Texans: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Miami Dolphins (0-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0)

AP Photo/Peter Joneleit

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray

FanDuel Line: Vikings (-10.5)

Davenport: Dolphins (+10.5)

To be clear, this has nothing to do with the Dolphins, who have struggled badly through three weeks and could be headed for a difficult season—especially with De'Von Achane reportedly out for the year.

Still, the spread is large for a Minnesota offense that has been inconsistent and could be without Justin Jefferson.

The Vikings should win comfortably, but a late Miami touchdown could produce a back-door cover.

Moton: Vikings (-10.5)

The Dolphins aren't competitive. They've lost all three of their games by at least 14 points, and their best offensive skill player, De'Von Achane, is out for the season with a torn ACL. 

Even if Justin Jefferson sits out or plays at less than 100 percent, Minnesota's second-ranked scoring defense may allow no more than a touchdown and a couple of field goals. Kyler Murray will have his best game as a Viking in an 11-plus-point blowout win.

Predictions

Dolphins: Davenport

Vikings: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-1)

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba

FanDuel Line: Seahawks (-6.5)

Gagnon: Seahawks (-6.5)

Something is extremely off with this Chargers team, and now they're in the wrong place at the wrong time, with Seattle back at home following a tough loss to Washington. Mike Macdonald's defense is due for a big playmaking affair against an untrustworthy Justin Herbert. This could be a blowout.  

Hanford: Chargers (+6.5)

This is less about the Chargers being good and more about the idea that they can't be this bad. Mike McDaniel's offense has been a disaster, but the Seahawks defense showed some cracks against Washington last week. If this spread was smaller, I'd back Seattle coming off an upset loss. But this is enough points where I see Justin Herbert keeping things just close enough. 

Predictions

Chargers: Hanford, O'Donnell

Seahawks: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Denver Broncos (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0)

AP Photo/Scot Tucker

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy

FanDuel Line: 49ers (-2.5)

Davenport: Broncos (+2.5)

You would think I'd know better than to go against Brock Purdy, but I'm an idiot, so there. Denver's 2-1 record despite slow starts and a brutal schedule speaks to the talent on its roster.

With Mike Evans joining San Francisco's lengthy injury list, this could be the week the 49ers' mounting absences finally catch up with them.

The Broncos win outright on the road.

O'Donnell: 49ers (-2.5)

This feels like a trap to me, but I'm going to ignore it.

The Broncos are a solid team—good, though not great—that can win in a variety of ways. It's almost never pretty, but it has proved effective. While many keep waiting for San Francisco's injuries to catch up with the Purdy-led 49ers, I'm not biting. 

Purdy is really good whether you want to believe it or not. He's good whether the 49ers are healthy (which is never) or not. Laying less than a field goal at home, I'm going to ignore my instinct to take the points thinking the unbeaten 'Niners aren't real because I believe they are very much for real right now.  

Predictions

Broncos: Davenport, Moton, Sobleski

49ers: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox,  O'Donnell

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-0)

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III

FanDuel Line: Chiefs (-4.5)

Moton: Chiefs (-4.5)

The Las Vegas Raiders are light-years better than they've been over the past few years. So, this could be a competitive matchup, especially with head coach Klint Kubiak maximizing Brock Bowers' skill set in the passing game.

However, during the preseason, the Raiders' run defense was their biggest issue. And over the last two weeks, Las Vegas has allowed over 126 rushing yards to a Los Angeles Chargers offense without an identity and a pass-heavy New Orleans Saints squad. 

Now, the Raiders have to stop league-leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who's averaging 120 yards on the ground per game. Kansas City won't turn the ball over four consecutive drives like New Orleans did last week. The Chiefs have two turnovers in three weeks. Without takeaways, and with the threat of Kansas City's newfound ground game, the Raiders fall by at least a touchdown.  

Sobleski: Raiders (+4.5)

This selection is less about believing in the 3-0 Raiders and more about how they can attack the rival Chiefs. With Maxx Crosby and Kwity Paye working off the edges, the tandem can terrorize the Chiefs offense due to Kansas City's weakness at offensive tackle. 

Plus, those two can help slow Kenneth Walker, and make Kansas City's offense less potent than it's been so far. If Kirk Cousins continues to play smart football, he doesn't need to outperform Patrick Mahomes. Instead, the Raiders quarterback can keep his squad on schedule and show they're not to be overlooked any longer.  

Predictions

Chiefs: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton

Raiders: O'Donnell, Sobleski

Detroit Lions (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs

FanDuel Line: Lions (-3.5)

Knox: Lions (-3.5)

With rain in the forecast, I do have concerns about the conditions potentially limiting the two talented offenses in this matchup. It doesn't look like any of us are backing Carolina, but it's not outlandish to think the Panthers can keep it close in a sloppy, mistake-filled game at home. 

That said, I don't expect to see a lot of great defense, and I expect a fairly high-scoring game. With Panthers cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson both headed to injured reserve, the Lions should have an opportunity to open things up and pull away late.

O'Donnell: Lions (-3.5)

Detroit doesn't deserve my trust, but that's why I'm going to back them.

The Lions' offense simply isn't as scary as it could be. Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown rack up the numbers, but the offensive output isn't dominating enough to cover for a banged-up defense that can't keep teams more than one score away from taking a lead and/or stealing a win. 

Carolina is getting the best out of Bryce Young, but unless it's defending against Cooper Rush, the Panthers' defense can be taken to the woodshed.

Let's queue up a likely shootout that ends with Carolina needing a touchdown to tie/win late, not getting it, and giving the Lions their first ATS cover of the season.  

Predictions

Lions: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-2)

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough

FanDuel Line: Saints (-2.5)

Knox: Saints (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons' offense was stunningly effective in Michael Penix Jr.'s 2026 debut last Thursday. However, I'm not convinced we'll see Penix play with such efficiency for a second straight week—not in New Orleans on a night honoring the 20th anniversary of the "Domecoming" game.

The Saints' offense may be a bit one-dimensional with Travis Etienne Jr. sidelined, but I think we'll see New Orleans' defense, the home crowd, and Tyler Shough take over the game and deliver at least a three-point victory. 

O'Donnell: Falcons (+2.5)

The Falcons had their big, surprise performance of the year last week when they beat the Packers at Lambeau Field. It's a struggle to think they can string together strong back-to-back performances, especially against a division rival that seems poised to turn the corner sooner rather than later.

But the Falcons are 5-1 ATS as road 'dogs since the start of last season, a mark good enough for fourth-best in the league. Even if they don't get a second straight victory, I'll settle for a potential cover against a Saints team that seems to really fancy playing close games. 

Predictions

Falcons: Davenport, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Saints: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton