2026 MLB Free Agents Predictions for Top Pitchers Set to Hit Open Market

With the threat of a lockout looming over all things MLB, there's no telling how this year's free agency will play out.

What is certain, though, is that the market will feature difference-making pitchers. Or maybe one full-fledged difference-maker and then a slew of rock-solid starters capable of beefing up just about any rotation.

This is the Tarik Skubal offseason with the two-time Cy Young standing head, shoulders and a full body underneath above the rest of the free agent pool. While he'll be the biggest star, he is far from the only hurler capable of attracting significant interest on the hot stove.

Let's peak ahead, then, and guesstimate what the future holds for three of the top pitchers in free agency.

Freddy Peralta, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Alex Zadorozny/Major League Baseball via Getty Images

As far as contract years go, Peralta's will be remembered as a massive disappointment. His trade to the New York Mets—seemingly the first step ahead of a long partnership—proved a horrendous fit, as the 2025 All-Star labored his way to a 4.99 ERA across 22 starts before being mercifully moved to Tampa Bay at the deadline.

To the surprise of perhaps no one, the Rays found ways of getting Peralta back on track. While not as dominant as last season, his nine-start stretch with the team so far has featured a reasonable 3.60 ERA and a 0.980 WHIP. That's a better ERA than his career mark and a lower WHIP than he had in 2025.

His strikeouts remain lower than ever, but fortunately the same holds true for his walks. And considering he had 200-plus punchouts each of the previous three seasons, perhaps suitors will simply see this year as anomaly and be willing to bet on a further return to form.

He still might have to settle for a short-term prove-it pact before getting the kind of long-term deal he desires, which might helps the Rays' hopes of retaining him. Then again, if someone opts to pay him for what his long-term track record says he's worth, that might bump him out of Tampa's price range.

Prediction: Peralta signs a two-year deal with the San Diego Padres.

Trevor Rogers, SP, Baltimore Orioles

G Fiume/Getty Images

Rogers has one of the more interesting stat pages you'll find, as it features a couple dominant campaigns, a couple clunkers and some so-so efforts sprinkled in, too. That won't make him the easiest open-market evaluation, but it would help if would-be suitors focused on his 2025 effort (1.81 ERA across 109.2 innings) and his more recent 2026 performances.

Things were plenty messy earlier this season, but they've been mostly calm of late. Since the start of June, he has pieced together a 2.92 ERA over 117 innings with 115 strikeouts against 21 walks.

His inconsistency will work against him, but the fact he'll only turn 29 in November might counteract that and then some. Long-term pacts with non-ace pitchers are always dicey, but there are reasons to believe he could be solid or better for most (if not all) of a four- or five-year deal.

That doesn't mean he'll for sure fetch one, obviously, but given his up-and-down numbers, it's easy to imagine he wouldn't mind locking into a longer contract if the salary figure is right. Nine figures could be a realistic target.

Prediction: Rogers signs a four-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Tarik Skubal, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Harry How/Getty Images

Free agency isn't necessarily arriving at the ideal time for Skubal, as he hasn't been quite as razor-sharp this season as he was over the last two (both Cy Young award-winners). On a related note, he also had to navigate around an elbow procedure and a midseason move from Detroit to L.A., so all things considered, it's still been a pretty awesome campaign.

Which makes sense since he is—objectively speaking—a pretty awesome pitcher. You have to go all the way back to 2022 to find the last time his ERA landed north of 3.00. During the three-plus seasons since, he's had a 2.50 ERA over 619.1 innings with 10.9 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9.

A healthy Skubal might be the best and most dominant pitcher in the Majors. Even in this uncertain financial climate, he could fetch north of $400 million in total contract value. If he winds up with a shorter deal, his average annual salary could bypass the $43.33 million record shared by Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

All deep-pocketed clubs will likely want to be in on the bidding, including his deep-pocketed current employer. Dark-horse options could emerge, too, especially if he's amenable to shorter deals with bigger salaries. The New York Mets could and should make this interesting, but the Dodgers could absolutely win another Skubal sweepstakes.

Prediction: Skubal signs a 10-year deal and stays in L.A.